OCA - Oceania Group - retirement villages

[couta1]

Would it be you stocking up an XOOOOOS position Couta?!

Nope not me but I know who.

[RupertBear]

Nope not me but I know who.

It must be that Beagle then

[Ggcc]

A little bird tells me a private investor is buying a sizable stake, don't ask me for any more info because Mum's the Word.

It’s you!! Lol 100% all in go hard or go home.

[Maverick]

Here's is a rather pointless post other than to fill a bit of time while the company is actually building units and growing out there on this beautiful day. So completely off fundamental stuff which most of us (if not all) agree is superb and why we actually own a piece of this company.

Here goes...The last weeks trading pattern has me intrigued. During this time the buyers are lining in up in average parcels of about $10-15K but the sellers are in much larger average chunks of about $50k each. Here's what I mean, right now 16 buyers are lined up at $1.21 for a total of $130k whereas there are only 3 sellers that total $215 k. This has been happening for a week or so. Plus whenever the selling volume start to thin out the shares left for sale then another large $50k chunk gets dumped on and put out for sale.

Contrary to Couta`s knowledge of a private buyer accumulating it looks to me like a heavyweight is unloading. From my perspective its good news. That is, despite the huge daily share sales there seems loads of "little " buyers hungrily gobbling them up and they are more dominant than the seller. Ultimately the seller will exhaust himself supplying the many buyers then they will drive up the share price to entice more sellers and therefore up to its next temporary plateau.

Free advice to the seller.... "why don't you raise your price a bit."

[flyer]

They are building a brand new apartment complex in Browns Bay, right across the road from the beach. Im a bit young yet but I would love to live there.
https://www.oceaniahealthcare.co.nz/the-sands-care

[Beagle]

Maverick - Some institutions probably can't help themselves taking a quick ~ 11% profit from the recent placement. Those that took part in the placement for a quick buck will run out of shares in due course...none of this worries a long term investor.

Out and about today, (gosh Percy is right and one needs to get away from the market to get things into proper focus sometimes), I got to thinking about the NTA of $1.04 as at balance date as per the companies analyst presentation, see here http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...282/283328.pdf and accrued earnings since balance date gets you somewhere close to $1.10 NTA.

I then got to thinking about all the intellectual property of the company I was referring to at post #2022, their stellar clinical care reputation earned over many many years and the value of all their resource consents in advance including more obtained since balance date and then the value of the earnings power of their business model with the much quicker churn of units compared to their peers and how much more defensive this is being needs based than peer companies that are selling lots of units based on lifestyle. For all that you're paying only about 10% above NTA so next to nothing for all that intellectual property compared to say RYM at $13.40 where the vast majority of the share price is IP ! (NTA only $3.83). SUM is trading at slightly more than double its NTA.

I then reflected on not only how realistically priced OCA is on a NTA basis, also a fundamental basis compared to its peer group with forward PE so cheap and the technical analysis looks so beautiful too and then finally there's also the dividend yield being the best in the sector...I think I've just about talked myself into doing a Couta1 and going all in lol
P.S. I still hold SUM.

Go hard or go home, isn't that the mantra Couta1...Isn't it funny how your mates rub off on you a bit

[Food4Thought]

Maverick - Some institutions probably can't help themselves taking a quick ~ 11% profit from the recent placement. Those that took part in the placement for a quick buck will run out of shares in due course...none of this worries a long term investor.

Out and about today, (gosh Percy is right and one needs to get away from the market to get things into proper focus sometimes), I got to thinking about the NTA of $1.04 as at balance date as per the companies analyst presentation, see here http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...282/283328.pdf and accrued earnings since balance date gets you somewhere close to $1.10 NTA.

I then got to thinking about all the intellectual property of the company I was referring to at post #2022, their stellar clinical care reputation earned over many many years and the value of all their resource consents in advance including more obtained since balance date and then the value of the earnings power of their business model with the much quicker churn of units compared to their peers and how much more defensive this is being needs based than peer companies that are selling lots of units based on lifestyle. For all that you're paying only about 10% above NTA so next to nothing for all that intellectual property compared to say RYM at $13.40 where the vast majority of the share price is IP ! (NTA only $3.83). SUM is trading at slightly more than double its NTA.

I then reflected on not only how realistically priced OCA is on a NTA basis, also a fundamental basis compared to its peer group with forward PE so cheap and the technical analysis looks so beautiful too and then finally there's also the dividend yield being the best in the sector...I think I've just about talked myself into doing a Couta1 and going all in lol
P.S. I still hold SUM.

Go hard or go home, isn't that the mantra Couta1...Isn't it funny how your mates rub off on you a bit

I see where you are coming from Beagle. Good boy.

Always tempting to go all in... have burnt myself a few times doing this... then also made a good decision with a very heavy handed placement in another share... sold half. Smiles all round there... grateful for that.

You won't know till you go.

I still see this sector as having a very good long term potential and certainly has heaps of room for growth.

[Beagle]

Wow Beagle , thanks for putting so much effort into letting us know your weekend thinking. Extremely well written too.

You're welcome mate. Very good of you to make the effort to come up to Auckland for the meeting today and great to meet you and others and see some familiar faces again.

Never forget our favorite saying...you can't have too many !

[winner69]

You're welcome mate. Very good of you to make the effort to come up to Auckland for the meeting today and great to meet you and others and see some familiar faces again.

Never forget our favorite saying...you can't have too many !

These meetings sound fun .....but is this love affair with Oceania mass hysteria / running with the mob / must join the party stuff or is there any real reason why you can’t have too much

One of your recent get togethers it seemed A2 had you all so excited ....hmmm

[whome]

Absolutely it is Winner. Called group bias, but only because the fundamentals stack up when compared to the alternatives, and when Beagle provides a numbers analysis that reinforces those gut feelings of where a company is headed - well - Of course a little craft beer helps! We need your input at the next meeting bud.