OCA - Oceania Group - retirement villages

**Beagle** · 14-11-2018, 08:05 AM

Originally Posted by Baa_Baa

Imo that's all well and truly priced in, maybe to some extent thanks to the incessant ramping here. "Can't have too many", well, yeah OK, but get a grip, this isn't accidental millionaire territory. It's a long play, give it 10-20 maybe 30 years. Patience is a scarce commodity.

Give it time and when the 4 unknown analysts with no measurable pedigree or provenance have consensus on Buy rather than currently Hold or Outperform, that might be the next leg up. Who knows really? This stock may not be too far ahead of itself, but it's close to par value, maybe a bit above, likely to see a prolonged sideways effect while reality catches up with future potential.

Disc, yes I have some but I'm not believing nondescript analysts, nor am I in the rampers camp. I take it as I see it and patience with perseverance are key. This is no quick win.

I agree with your last two sentences but the rest of it I couldn't disagree more. You have completely missed the point over the next 6 years their business model will be radically transformed. It only takes 26% compound earnings growth over 3 years (1.26 x 1.26 x 1.26) for underlying eps to double and fundamentally this is already the cheapest stock in this sector by quite some margin. I think there is an excellent chance the SP will double in the next three years but if you can't understand the fundamental growth drivers, the business transformation process or the math's and consequently have only a modest stake...

**trader_jackson** · 14-11-2018, 07:38 PM

hey what's going on... Things only getting worse for OCA share price after the presentation was put up... people getting a bit over the "we're the best by miles" preso attitude to the whole care side of things maybe? (yet Arvida and Ryman, maybe even sum others not listed are better)
no worries long term as results should do the talking although can't change accounting standards to boost things up, they already played this card

**winner69** · 14-11-2018, 08:02 PM

Originally Posted by trader_jackson

hey what's going on... Things only getting worse for OCA share price after the presentation was put up... people getting a bit over the "we're the best by miles" preso attitude to the whole care side of things maybe? (yet Arvida and Ryman, maybe even sum others not listed are better)
no worries long term as results should do the talking although can't change accounting standards to boost things up, they already played this card

You saying OCA accounts / reporting are as obtuse as Arvida’s?

**Maverick** · 14-11-2018, 08:26 PM

Originally Posted by winner69

You saying OCA accounts / reporting are as obtuse as Arvida’s?

Very Acute Winner ... nice!

**trader_jackson** · 14-11-2018, 08:40 PM

Originally Posted by winner69

You saying OCA accounts / reporting are as obtuse as Arvida’s?

I don't recall arv making an accounting change that resulted in a one off benefit to the bottom line to beat pds forecasts but I could be wrong...

**Baa_Baa** · 14-11-2018, 09:44 PM

Originally Posted by Beagle

[snip] ... but if you can't understand the fundamental growth drivers, the business transformation process or the math's and consequently have only a modest stake...

I can hardly believe you're so rude when you have no idea of my circumstances or situation (you even gave me a negative reputation comment, good grief!). My post was pretty simple, I own OCA and you have no idea how many, I have researched the company extensively as I do with all my investments, I am quite capable of doing my own FA and TA without help from you or anyone else, I reckon it's been ramped here to a bit above fair value, and no one knows who the analysts are that you quote or their pedigree that you refer to frequently when it suits you and dispute when it doesn't.

OCA is a fine stock, it just won't happen overnight. Why make it personal Roger, I thought you were above that.

**Joshuatree** · 14-11-2018, 10:09 PM

Thats pretty vindictive and sick imo, giving a negative reputation esp for what i think is a sensible post. Ive had it before from him too(and positive ones). On Hot Copper you can only give positive thumbs ups, way better imo. Tells one a lot about how people can really be. Incessant ramping alright but no surprises there, consistency

.

I posted this on 26/09/18
My investment advisor/ brokers hasn't changed their metrics
1 year t/p av of $1.18 from 3 analysts with 1 buy and 2 holds

4traders 2 ratings , both hold t/p $1.19
Buying at the IPO of $.79 which is still my average has been the optimal risk reward way to go imo. Will only top up if some sort of black swan event drops the mkt and OCA s/p a lot."

Ties in with what BB is saying. Nothing has changed imo except the worsening global stockmarket sentiment.

Originally Posted by Baa_Baa

Imo that's all well and truly priced in, maybe to some extent thanks to the incessant ramping here. "Can't have too many", well, yeah OK, but get a grip, this isn't accidental millionaire territory. It's a long play, give it 10-20 maybe 30 years. Patience is a scarce commodity.

Give it time and when the 4 unknown analysts with no measurable pedigree or provenance have consensus on Buy rather than currently Hold or Outperform, that might be the next leg up. Who knows really? This stock may not be too far ahead of itself, but it's close to par value, maybe a bit above, likely to see a prolonged sideways effect while reality catches up with future potential.

Disc, yes I have some but I'm not believing nondescript analysts, nor am I in the rampers camp. I take it as I see it and patience with perseverance are key. This is no quick win.

**Beagle** · 14-11-2018, 11:17 PM

Nothing sick or vindictive about negative rep, its just the opposite of positive rep, please get a grip on reality for goodness sake. I thought it was a very poor post so marked it as such as I'm perfectly entitled to do and I'm not the only one who felt that way looking at the posts from others after your post Baa Baa. Pretty sure I have given you both positive rep for worthwhile posts when its warranted.

Some people on here take this whole ramping thing far too seriously. All those that chose to come along to the recent Auckland gettogether had a lot of fun with overt positivity about OCA based on the compelling fundamental's relative to the sector. "It's a long play, give it 10-20, maybe 30 years" For goodness sake what value does this add ? Everyone knows the tailwinds in this sector. What people want to understand is how their earnings are going to grow in the next few years relative to other sector participants and why ? I've made a number of lengthy dissertations on that which were not "incessant ramping" a term I take offence too considering the thought and effort that went into that especially having used up one of my evenings off to go and meet Earl Gasparich, hear his presentation to the N.Z. shareholders association and talk with him at length after the meeting.

Finally, I cannot recall reading one decent analysis on OCA from either of you comparing the fundamental's to the other retirement players and clearly articulating the positive and negative aspects of each share relative to the others. I'd love to actually read some of your wonderful insights as to why you think this is fully or overpriced when others in the sector are on far higher PE's with much lower growth. I am all ears waiting for some of your special analysis. You are of course most welcome to your own opinion but it would be a refreshing change to see you back that opinion up with some clearly articulated analysis, (I promise not to call it down ramping)

**couta1** · 14-11-2018, 11:38 PM

Hey JT, you say over on Hotcopper you can only give positive thumbs up yet often l have noticed that posters treat each other like crap over there and get away with it. The overall etiquette on here is far superior and long may it stay that way.