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30-11-2018, 12:02 PM
#2281
2 comments, & correct me if I'm wrong, but last time the SP was this low 114 early Sept, didn't i see several senior directors buying up truckloads of shares which you would have to presume meant they saw it as significantly undervalued at this level.
If several directors with the depth of knowledge they have on OCA's future & the whole sector saw it as undervalued at this level, that seems pretty powerful testimony to strong future growth in earnings & SP & reinforces all the analysis we have seen here by Beagle & others.
Last edited by Blue Skies; 30-11-2018 at 12:36 PM.
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30-11-2018, 12:27 PM
#2282
Originally Posted by Beagle
You're on to it mate. Average stay in a care suite from memory from the presentation Earl Gasparich gave to the Auckland brand N.Z. shareholders association is only about 2.5 years. Quite a big difference in the business model's of the various retirement companies isn't there
The OCA facility, with which I am familiar from having had a relative as a patient, seemed to have a drive to establish premium care rooms which could be purchased via ORAs. Perhaps a profitable point of difference from other providers?
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30-11-2018, 12:34 PM
#2283
Originally Posted by Bjauck
The OCA facility, with which I am familiar from having had a relative as a patient, seemed to have a drive to establish premium care rooms which could be purchased via ORAs. Perhaps a profitable point of difference from other providers?
Yes absolutly. Please see attached presentation from OCA earlier this month http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...631/290269.pdf
As I've probably mentioned already I think Earl Gasparich makes a very good leader. In my opinion he has the knack of being able to easily communicate with people and has many of the same attributes of Simon Challis former CEO of RYM. In addition I note he's dual qualified with Commerce and Legal degrees, the latter with honor's.
I think he's a man at the very top of his game. A very good leader sets the culture of the whole organisation.
Last edited by Beagle; 30-11-2018 at 12:40 PM.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
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30-11-2018, 12:36 PM
#2284
Originally Posted by Beagle
I am forecasting ~ 11 cps underlying earnings for FY19 up from 8.4 cps. Forward PE at $1.14 is just 10.4.
Yep , sounds pretty right to me Beagle.
My ball park expectations of FY 2019 are as follows
FY2018 profit 52.1 mill
Plus 2% inflation increase on the care side of business +1 mill
Plus margin on new builds +16.1 mill
Plus increased DMF of new stock (most of this won`t be fully realised for several years though- but i figure there will be some increase in DMF fees is warranted from increasing ORA`s done in recent years) +4.3 mill
Total annual profit = $73.6 million =11.7 cps
So a bit more than yours Beagle , but you're probably closer by not including so much unrealised DMF that I`have. (+ 4.3 mil equates to 0.7 cps)
At a forward PE of 13 makes the share price then worth $1.52 ( it's no surprise this is 25% higher than the $1.20 it was when I did these workings)
That has been historically about what most retirement stocks have increased by YOY.
Last edited by Maverick; 30-11-2018 at 12:37 PM.
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30-11-2018, 02:55 PM
#2285
I did not expect to see these prices again for this stock with everyone’s positive comments. To me these prices are fantastic entry point prices for longterm holders. Patience gets you rewards
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30-11-2018, 03:04 PM
#2286
Originally Posted by Ggcc
I did not expect to see these prices again for this stock with everyone’s positive comments. To me these prices are fantastic entry point prices for longterm holders. Patience gets you rewards
Neither did I, just another example of a Schizophrenic market in action, fantastic buying opportunity for those that missed out before because the market is way wrong on this one.PS-If I didn't already have such a large holding I would have line swiped all those being offered up at $1.13.
Last edited by couta1; 30-11-2018 at 03:08 PM.
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30-11-2018, 03:08 PM
#2287
Originally Posted by couta1
Neither did I, just another example of a Schizophrenic market in action, fantastic buying opportunity for those that missed out before because the market is way wrong on this one.
End of month squaring up couts
Last edited by winner69; 30-11-2018 at 03:09 PM.
“ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”
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30-11-2018, 03:13 PM
#2288
Originally Posted by winner69
End of month squaring up couts
Yeah probably an Insto that bought in at the $1.10 placement offloading a few to square the books.
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30-11-2018, 03:23 PM
#2289
I have no money in my ANZ securities account at present. Wish I did as I genuinely believe at the current price this is an outstanding opportunity to build wealth over time.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
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30-11-2018, 03:57 PM
#2290
Thought you would have sold by now,as the sp is under the 90 day moving average?...lol..
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