sharetrader
Page 258 of 1942 FirstFirst ... 1582082482542552562572582592602612622683083587581258 ... LastLast
Results 2,571 to 2,580 of 19415
  1. #2571
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Location
    Auckland
    Posts
    21,362

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by rainey View Post
    I think that the weakness in retirement shares is reflective of a possible decline in property prices which means people are tending to shy away
    Agreed. All except ARV appear to have been tarred with the same brush without any thought for which companies are offering mainly discretionary lifestyle choices (only if people can sell their house for the right price) and which companies are providing more needs based services, (highly motivated vendors trading well down into a much smaller unit with a much lower average price / much higher margin of safety relative to their existing house). It'll be fascinating to see how this play's out over the next few years.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  2. #2572
    percy
    Join Date
    Oct 2009
    Location
    christchurch
    Posts
    17,221

    Default

    Maybe,however, I feel it is more the rub off from the ongoing bad publicity the Australian retirement sector companies are receiving.
    I would guess Australian fund managers would be avoiding the sector full stop.
    We have seen this in the banking sector as well.
    ,

  3. #2573
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Location
    Auckland
    Posts
    21,362

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by percy View Post
    Maybe,however, I feel it is more the rub off from the ongoing bad publicity the Australian retirement sector companies are receiving.
    I would guess Australian fund managers would be avoiding the sector full stop.
    We have seen this in the banking sector as well.
    ,
    Good point and I would think that is definitely a factor. I suspect a lot of the selling of OCA has come from Australian institutions who took part in the recent placement at $1.10 and now simply want out of the sector and are selling almost indiscriminately.
    Last edited by Beagle; 28-12-2018 at 11:29 AM.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  4. #2574
    Guru Xerof's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2005
    Posts
    3,005

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    Good point and I would think that is definitely a factor. I suspect a lot of the selling of OCA has come from Australian institutions who took part in the recent placement at $1.10 and now simply want out of the sector and are selling almost indiscriminately.
    Hmmm, it's been a fairly orderly distribution, no real panic selling IMO.

    I think the comments regarding insto's reducing is probably near the truth, but IMO, they are making space for the next tranche to come into play. When that is I don't know, but for sure it's coming.

    I believe they still very much like the sector, but are just playing the game until Macca are all out

  5. #2575
    Guru
    Join Date
    Aug 2012
    Posts
    4,658

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by rainey View Post
    I think that the weakness in retirement shares is reflective of a possible decline in property prices which means people are tending to shy away
    Yes. Property sentiment has turned negative. Although retirement stocks will continue to make a resilient profit from churn and increasing demand for their products.

    Unfortunately (for those who invest in real estate and real estate related shares) I don’t think It can get any better for NZ investor residential real estate. It already has a benign tax environment coupled with previous headwinds from declining interest rates.

    Interest rates have already had the once-in-a-generation decline;The tax environment can only become more difficult (CGT/end of negative gearing/change to tax rulings etc.) Although If a CGT is introduced with an exemption for the family home, that could possibly give a relative boost to land values as kiwis divest some of their shares and business investments to over-capitalise their tax favoured owner-occupied main residences. Owner occupied housing could also be favoured over investing in KiwiSaver with its limited tax credit payment.
    Last edited by Bjauck; 28-12-2018 at 02:19 PM.

  6. #2576
    Guru
    Join Date
    Feb 2005
    Location
    Auckland, , New Zealand.
    Posts
    3,227

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by rainey View Post
    I think that the weakness in retirement shares is reflective of a possible decline in property prices which means people are tending to shy away
    How would you explain the increase in price of listed property companies then?

  7. #2577
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Location
    Auckland
    Posts
    21,362

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by 777 View Post
    How would you explain the increase in price of listed property companies then?
    If you don't mind me interjecting and opining on that one, (seeing as I have done 10001 rental property returns for clients over the years)
    People have been chasing safe net yields. For example ARG a PIE is still yielding approx. 5.2% net (about 7.7% gross for anyone on a 33% tax rate) even after its good run in the last couple of months up from $1.07 to $1.20 today. Weighted average lease term is over 5 years.

    Auckland residential property generally speaking after all costs might get you about 3% return before tax (2% after tax for an investor on a 33% tax rate) assuming the tenant actually pays the rent, doesn't trash the house or contaminate it with methamphetamine. The only reason to have ever been a residential landlord in Auckland, (capital gains), no longer applies and I think we are likely to follow Sydney and Melbourne down. Why anyone would bother with a Government looking to make life even harder for landlords with even more enhancements to tenants rights and a possible capital gains tax / and or ring-fencing of tax losses is beyond my comprehension but I guess some people simply feel more comfortable in bricks and mortar they control themselves because its what they've always done.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  8. #2578
    Member Onion's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2013
    Posts
    483

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by 777 View Post
    How would you explain the increase in price of listed property companies then?
    Absolutely right 777.

    Courtesy of Yahoo Finance... NZ property shares have held up quite nicely amongst the doom and gloom:

    NZPropertyShares2018.jpg

  9. #2579
    percy
    Join Date
    Oct 2009
    Location
    christchurch
    Posts
    17,221

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Onion View Post
    Absolutely right 777.

    Courtesy of Yahoo Finance... NZ property shares have held up quite nicely amongst the doom and gloom:

    NZPropertyShares2018.jpg
    Surprises me.
    Driving around ChCh I note the large number of vacant properties.To Lease/Rent signs everywhere.
    Hillsborough,Sydenham,Moorhouse Ave,Wrights Road,Riccarton,Blenheim Road,Addington,Woolston,Papanui.Kaiapoi the same.
    Space in Barrington Mall and Eastgate Mall appears half empty.

  10. #2580
    Member
    Join Date
    Mar 2014
    Location
    In Exile
    Posts
    337

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    If you don't mind me interjecting and opining on that one, (seeing as I have done 10001 rental property returns for clients over the years)
    People have been chasing safe net yields. For example ARG a PIE is still yielding approx. 5.2% net (about 7.7% gross for anyone on a 33% tax rate) even after its good run in the last couple of months up from $1.07 to $1.20 today. Weighted average lease term is over 5 years.

    Auckland residential property generally speaking after all costs might get you about 3% return before tax (2% after tax for an investor on a 33% tax rate) assuming the tenant actually pays the rent, doesn't trash the house or contaminate it with methamphetamine. The only reason to have ever been a residential landlord in Auckland, (capital gains), no longer applies and I think we are likely to follow Sydney and Melbourne down. Why anyone would bother with a Government looking to make life even harder for landlords with even more enhancements to tenants rights and a possible capital gains tax / and or ring-fencing of tax losses is beyond my comprehension but I guess some people simply feel more comfortable in bricks and mortar they control themselves because its what they've always done.
    This. Over the last few years, I've increased the rent and received less income due to rising costs (rates up 37% this year). Two percent net on current market value is about as good as it gets. The only reasons for holding residential property investment are (i) diversification + direct control over the asset and (ii) to make sure that you don't get priced out of the market if prices keep going up.

Tags for this Thread

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •