OCA - Oceania Group - retirement villages

[BlackPeter]

Closed last year at 105 and closes this year at 107

Obviously not living up to the hype ......zillions of shares changed hand over the year and the price has hardly moved.

The only dog in my holdings

Hope 2019 is better, but my gut feel it’s going to be another year of going nowhere for OCA

How long do I hang in and hope ...but hope is not a strategy I’m told

So did you buy at 105? I bought my first parcel in June 2017 at 85 cents and topped up at verious times after that (most belwo $1). The capital value of my shares increased so far by 14%. Not bad for an investment I started to build only 18 months go - and the shares payed me as well a handsome dividend (way above any bond yield I could get).

Can't complain.

But obviously - if one wants to complain than one can find for any share some arbitrary timeframe where the SP went sidewards or down.

[winner69]

So did you buy at 105? I bought my first parcel in June 2017 at 85 cents and topped up at verious times after that (most belwo $1). The capital value of my shares increased so far by 14%. Not bad for an investment I started to build only 18 months go - and the shares payed me as well a handsome dividend (way above any bond yield I could get).

Can't complain.

But obviously - if one wants to complain than one can find for any share some arbitrary timeframe where the SP went sidewards or down.

Sadly I’m not as astute as you are BlackPeter .....I’m under water here.

I only used the 2018 calendar year in the context of hoping calendar 2019 would be better.

[Raz]

Yes..lots of builders in CHCH.cutting wages... laying off staff..one large developer I have been told has gone from 24 foreman to 9. Others have moved to Queenstown to find work......

Christchurch is a several outlier to NZ currently, although it is has having a major impact to retirement villages being able to close sales there, it is slightly over 10% of the NZ market, adding in Auckland going flat that would be just under half the market, can see the why the sentiment in SP ?

[Beagle]

Closed last year at 105 and closes this year at 107

Obviously not living up to the hype ......zillions of shares changed hand over the year and the price has hardly moved.

The only dog in my holdings

Hope 2019 is better, but my gut feel it’s going to be another year of going nowhere for OCA

How long do I hang in and hope ...but hope is not a strategy I’m told

Probably wise for retired folk to concentrate on dividend yield going forward from here as I know you and I expect a tough 2019 and 2020. In that respect OCA is the standout of this sector and I am forecasting 6% gross yield for FY19 and the ability to grow that going forward shouldn't be overlooked. Often one years lazy labrador is next years speedy greyhound. Market just needs to build trust that their business model works. Trust is earned, it is never given. You will see the first real fruits of their business model with higher development level's in late July this year....remember that Rome wasn't built in a day

[Beagle]

I have it on good authority that OCA have been looking v hard at entering the Aus market...... more likely NSW. Hopefully they can find some bargains in the lower Aus real estate values.

Earl Gasparich told the Auckland branch of the NZ shareholders association at a briefing in Sept 2018 they had no intention of expanding to Australia as they have about 6-7 years expansion plans already in train for New Zealand...plenty on their plate here.

[Maverick]

Probably wise for retired folk to concentrate on dividend yield going forward from here as I know you and I expect a tough 2019 and 2020. In that respect OCA is the standout of this sector and I am forecasting 6% gross yield for FY19 and the ability to grow that going forward shouldn't be overlooked. Often one years lazy labrador is next years speedy greyhound. Market just needs to build trust that their business model works. Trust is earned, it is never given. You will see the first real fruits of their business model with higher development level's in late July this year....remember that Rome wasn't built in a day

Especially Sir Beagle, but of course Couta and Winner and countless others, I just want to thank you all for your efforts on this thread. You have summed up Oca so well that anyone with an interest in investing in this industry has all the facts and theories clearly laid out. Anybody out there with the capacity to think for themselves and ability to actually act on it, has had a pearl thrown to them.

Personally ,it has been good to consider the negative talk lately of a global recession, a falling OCA SP, property sales slowing, talk of potential Govt intervention and bad village experiences in the news. I do intentionally try to cool my enthusiasm for this particular company so it's good to consider it through negative lenses.

However , the compelling case for this company (as laid out here over and over )just keeps shinning through and , to me, none of the negatives stick when considering a 3-5year time frame. I'm in no hurry, at a growing, circa gross 4.5% dividend yield, I can wait forever.

Sadly ,there is just nothing new and juicy to say about OCA right now. Looking forward to the end of the month to hear of the milestones being munched through.

[trader_jackson]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...ectid=12174755

I bet if any reference to Arvida was changed to Oceania (and the rest of the article worded exactly the same) this would have been posted and re-posted, discussed and further discussed, quoted and further quoted... but no, it is to do with that other listed dog... still very relevant to OCA, just not worth posting on the ARV thread as nobody looks at that anyway.

"We are very much the new boys and girls on the block having only listed four years ago and still creating a presence." - my goodness how to OCA feel then! Couldn't quite word this part the same I suppose

[winner69]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...ectid=12174755

I bet if any reference to Arvida was changed to Oceania (and the rest of the article worded exactly the same) this would have been posted and re-posted, discussed and further discussed, quoted and further quoted... but no, it is to do with that other listed dog... still very relevant to OCA, just not worth posting on the ARV thread as nobody looks at that anyway.

"We are very much the new boys and girls on the block having only listed four years ago and still creating a presence." - my goodness how to OCA feel then! Couldn't quite word this part the same I suppose

Thanks t_j — a good article

They seem ‘hopeful’ that 2019 will be a good year in spite of some headwinds but they will competently overcome those.

[Ggcc]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...ectid=12174755

I bet if any reference to Arvida was changed to Oceania (and the rest of the article worded exactly the same) this would have been posted and re-posted, discussed and further discussed, quoted and further quoted... but no, it is to do with that other listed dog... still very relevant to OCA, just not worth posting on the ARV thread as nobody looks at that anyway.

"We are very much the new boys and girls on the block having only listed four years ago and still creating a presence." - my goodness how to OCA feel then! Couldn't quite word this part the same I suppose

Eventually whether the government do or do not provide funding for all of the retirement sector, they will need to price in that nurses and staff they are short of get more money, or run the chance of being understaffed. Or course the funding will need to come off shareholders and get passed onto residents.

[Blue Skies]

Eventually whether the government do or do not provide funding for all of the retirement sector, they will need to price in that nurses and staff they are short of get more money, or run the chance of being understaffed. Or course the funding will need to come off shareholders and get passed onto residents.

This has come up before but had an interesting chat a few days ago to a very bright young PHD student working in field of A.I. robotics & health care, who mentioned some of the retirement organisations here definitely very actively pursuing developments in this area.
Not all about reducing costs (although that obviously is a benefit for shareholders), apparently research showing some health outcome advantages when mixed with appropriate staffing levels.