OCA - Oceania Group - retirement villages

[percy]

The love for Oceania is just as good as the love for Turners

I have invested in Oceania,Turners and Heartland Group, as I like their business models,their directors and management,and the sectors they are in.
All three have directors and management with a great deal of "skin in the game".
Each of them are delivering on their strategy.
It is not love for me.It is more "lusting" for dividends,as all three have the capacity to pay increasing dividends.

[Timesurfer]

It is not love for me.It is more "lusting" for dividends,as all three have the capacity to pay increasing dividends.

I hope you are right, as it looks like I am now a long term investor while I wait for their SP to return to former glory!

[Ggcc]

I did mention earlier the fun starts in 2020 for this share's SP. The results were what I expected for the 6 months and i am remaining a happy holder. I think that euphoria got the better of us all at some stage when the share was $.20 and people mentioned backing up the truck to get more shares. I was hesitant and decided to wait as the price slowly went down. I don't think we will see a $1.20 SP till late this year or early next year. I am happy to wait and as Percy said, they have the capacity to pay increasing dividends. Good things take time.

[DarkHorse]

I'm happy with the cashflows and 'on-time on budget' results.
The big question for me is: what kind of return for each dollar of capital invested can we expect going forward?
Would love to hear the thoughts of those with more in depth understanding of both the company and accounting statements.

[bull....]

I'm happy with the cashflows and 'on-time on budget' results.
The big question for me is: what kind of return for each dollar of capital invested can we expect going forward?
Would love to hear the thoughts of those with more in depth understanding of both the company and accounting statements.

hardly much money in care and the majority of cashflows is from peoperty development. once the pipeline of care bed conversions run out cashflow will fall by some degree. other factors that could affect the development margins are property prices and competition and the ever rising construction costs as evident in there less development margin.

[value_investor]

Finally got the chance to have a look and this one will be a much slower burner than first initially thought, its still years away from unlocking the potential, and luckily I'm a long term buyer so I'll keep accumulating on top my small holdings.

Its good to see that what they've said in their last two reports in terms of build time is what they've delivered. I find it interesting that they can deliver so well on their targets in terms of build rates. Nothings slipped back months or been cancelled.

I think its undeniable that the increased costs deriving from the pay equity deal has been a contributing factor on underlying profit when you look at note 2.1 of the interim report. A 3% increase in revenue on the care side vs an 8% increase on the operating expenses.

Another item of interest is the increased borrowing cost, while it is sustainable it will be interesting going forward if they can build out their recurring revenue faster. Especially if the reverse bank starts to raise rates and the finance costs start becoming an issue. Although its all honky dory right now, we have seen changes very quickly like just lately in the US markets.

[Maverick]

I did mention earlier the fun starts in 2020 for this share's SP. The results were what I expected for the 6 months and i am remaining a happy holder. I think that euphoria got the better of us all at some stage when the share was $.20 and people mentioned backing up the truck to get more shares. I was hesitant and decided to wait as the price slowly went down. I don't think we will see a $1.20 SP till late this year or early next year. I am happy to wait and as Percy said, they have the capacity to pay increasing dividends. Good things take time.

Good post Ggcc(what does that stand for by the way)
The fundamental 2 things I wanted from this report was to hear about the building progress and if oca can fill them.
A. Top marks for the project management team. On track and on budget.
B. The occupancy rates increasing to 92% is significant. Looks like they are having no problem renting them.
Obviously the small profit increase appears disappointing and consequently no dividend increase but with the two questions above answered so solidly , in my mind, all that's is required now is patience. Like 5 years patience.
With no rush for any one to buy in and Macquarie poised to sell loads at some stage, I can't see the share price moving much. I still remain convinced that you "can't have too many ".(provided they are held)

[winner69]

I don't see any reason why Oceania would not meet their long term incentive plan requirement of 35% growth in underlying earnings per year:

"Generally, the shares under the 2017 LTIP Scheme will be eligible to vest if, at the vesting date (which is the businessday after release of the financial statements for the year ended 31 May 2020), the participant remains employed by Oceania and the performance hurdles are achieved. The performance hurdles require Oceania’s performance tomeet, or exceed, an underlying Earnings per Share Compound Annual Growth Rate ("EPS CAGR") of 35% per annumor greater, over the three year period to 31 May 2020."

Checked with company and Base Year is F17 and Base EPS is 5.6 cents

So to get goodies in LTIP F20 Underlying EPS needs to be 13.8 cents (the 35% pa CAGR growth)

Decent start with F18 EPS of 8.6 cents

So only need to do 27% pa over F19 and F20 to get goodies

That 13.8 cents is $83m underlying npat in F20

(PS ..on Beagles forecasts that’s more than a given ...like hardly a stretched target)

[Maverick]

Interim dividend per share announced of 2.1 cents per share (not imputed) payable on 18 February 2019.
I presume this means "ex date" , not actual "pay date" - I know its too much to wish for that ex divi date was yesterday?

[winner69]

Interim dividend per share announced of 2.1 cents per share (not imputed) payable on 18 February 2019.
I presume this means "ex date" , not actual "pay date" - I know its too much to wish for that ex divi date was yesterday?

Wishful thing ...ex-div Feb 8th with record date 11th Feb

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...805/294059.pdf