sharetrader
Page 330 of 1942 FirstFirst ... 2302803203263273283293303313323333343403804308301330 ... LastLast
Results 3,291 to 3,300 of 19415
  1. #3291
    …just try’n to manage expectations… Maverick's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2017
    Posts
    713

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    Maverick - maybe, just maybe, your assessment and sums are wrong

    What happens at the giant drop at Dreamworld if that’s the case.
    The sums are not wrong. Nothing has changed with the company, the problem is that the sellers have simply exhausted the buyers. It`ll turn the other way one day. I`m as calm as a cucumber.

  2. #3292
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Location
    Auckland
    Posts
    21,362

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Maverick View Post
    This is so much fun...like the giant drop at dreamworld.
    No good mate. I get fear of heights and dizziness from rollercoasters.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  3. #3293
    Member
    Join Date
    Mar 2017
    Posts
    48

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by bull.... View Post
    not many buyers on the depth at the moment , 98 - 100 is a support area so see if they appear at some stage
    You are really bang on with this OCA stuff. Is 0.89 for next support you guess? I am all ears. Ta.
    Last edited by tuaman; 18-03-2019 at 11:31 AM.

  4. #3294
    ShareTrader Legend bull....'s Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2002
    Location
    auckland, , New Zealand.
    Posts
    10,993

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by tuaman View Post
    You are really bang on with this OCA stuff. Is 0.89 for next support you guess? I am all ears. Ta.
    technically there nothing relevant about 89c i can see , no price history under 95c really to make any assumptions about much from a t/a perspective. fundamentally some people might be able to make a case for such a price in time.
    one step ahead of the herd

  5. #3295
    always learning ... BlackPeter's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2007
    Posts
    9,497

    Default

    Just to throw some random numbers into the discussion:

    Analyst consensus (4-traders) is $1.18 (in a band from $1.11 to $1.24). Statistical reliability (for what it is worth) - I do track their forecasts for the stocks I hold and watch - and for these they get roughly 60% right. Obviously - the other 40% are wrong. Just for clarification: "Right" means in this context the stock is at forecast below the prediction but reaches or exceeds the prediction at least once at or before the end of the prediction period).

    DCF value (ShareClarity): 88 cents; Statistical reliability: only started to track these values (i.e. 2 early to tell), but so far I found less than 10% where the ShareClarity DCF looked sensible compared to the known fundamentals, analyst consensus or SP development;

    Graham formula ((8.5 + 2g) * EPS) returns $2.54 per share; Typically though ways too optimistic;

    ... but if I use the famous bull (or should I say B/S) formula using my random gernerator, than the answer is 42 ... (not sure though, whether this is cents or dollars).

    SP can go anywhere as long as there is an imbalance between sellers and buyers ... the old play between fear and greed.

    bull (s?) seem to like the fear game ...
    Last edited by BlackPeter; 18-03-2019 at 12:57 PM.
    ----
    "Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)

  6. #3296
    always learning ... BlackPeter's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2007
    Posts
    9,497

    Default

    ... and here are some random support zones:

    $1 (at end of day) would be a quite significant support (if it holds ...) just because markets do love round numbers.

    98 cents - OCA bounced a long time along along this support level - these things tend to stick in investors memories (and they buy ...).

    95 cents used to be the bottom of one of these (a bit) larger troughs - another potential support zone ...

    ... and below that there is obviously the IPO price (not absolutely sure, I think it was 85 cents).

    I'd see the SP as unlikely to drop below the high 90'ies (and certainly not below the IPO price) - but if somebody is playing games, than one never knows where naked fear can lead investors ;

    Obviously - all this fearmongering re wages, evil Australian retirement homes and CGT is - just that: plain fear mongering.

    Any of above would impact on all of our retirement villages in a similar manner - and so far I don't see them all crashing into the ground.
    ----
    "Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)

  7. #3297
    ShareTrader Legend bull....'s Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2002
    Location
    auckland, , New Zealand.
    Posts
    10,993

    Default

    bp you forget to mention the property market which is the most important consideration for most. declining margins would reduce the profitabilty of all of them wouldnt it? you dont even need a falling property market to affect margins
    one step ahead of the herd

  8. #3298
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Location
    Auckland
    Posts
    21,362

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by bull.... View Post
    bp you forget to mention the property market which is the most important consideration for most. declining margins would reduce the profitabilty of all of them wouldnt it? you dont even need a falling property market to affect margins
    House prices are going up in most of the country. Its very very easy for people based in Auckland to get tunnel vision especially when going through the new waterview tunnel
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  9. #3299
    always learning ... BlackPeter's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2007
    Posts
    9,497

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by bull.... View Post
    bp you forget to mention the property market which is the most important consideration for most. declining margins would reduce the profitabilty of all of them wouldnt it? you dont even need a falling property market to affect margins
    Wouldn't this impact as well on all retirement villages? If yes, why is SUM currently climbing?
    ----
    "Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)

  10. #3300
    ShareTrader Legend bull....'s Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2002
    Location
    auckland, , New Zealand.
    Posts
    10,993

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by BlackPeter View Post
    Wouldn't this impact as well on all retirement villages? If yes, why is SUM currently climbing?
    guess so in the long run.

    if you look at sum vrs oca both have reported results and since these results sum has gone up oca down. maybe the fundamentals are better for sum than oca in peoples eyes hence the switching from oca to sum
    one step ahead of the herd

Tags for this Thread

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •