OCA - Oceania Group - retirement villages

[bull....]

As well as wage costs, govt regulation change is highly relevant for care bed facilities only need to look at what happened in australia to the care bed companies listed on the ASX when the govt changed the rules.

Anyway all these are well highlighted in the risks set out in the ipo document.

[bull....]

I lived in a rest home for 2 yrs when i was in my 20s so have a good idea of how they are run.

[Joshuatree]

As well as wage costs, govt regulation change is highly relevant for care bed facilities only need to look at what happened in australia to the care bed companies listed on the ASX when the govt changed the rules.

Yes we got caught with Estia EHE.It more than halved and s/p is now crabbing sideways on a bumpy bottom, almost a mortal hit.

Thanks Bull for bringing up some very pertinent points and making it a good robust discussion.

[percy]

yes thats why they moving more into high margin property trading although that gig will end for all of them either when the market becomes saturated or when the govt regulates the sector over the unethical exit fee structure.

At present time the retirement sector are not building enough retirement villages to keep ahead of projected wall of retires coming on stream, over the next 20 to 30 years.
It is not in the govt's interest to regulate.

[bull....]

At present time the retirement sector are not building enough retirement villages to keep ahead of projected wall of retires coming on stream, over the next 20 to 30 years.
It is not in the govt's interest to regulate.

exactly thats why they are allowed to get away with extortionate fees as it suits the govt's objective of not having to provide the services themselves.
anyway when market is saturated and you have such a large block of voters living in them the public pressure over the fees will make the govt regulate i reckon and retirement villages will then be just like care bed facilities a low margin business i reckon.

[bull....]

Well that is good! Regardless, Oceania is one of the least concerned with a strong continuum of care (and care itself) focus, and I'm sure the rest of the market (being the other operators) will adjust accordingly.

My own view is that the "high margin property trading gig" probably won't 'end' for a good decade or two, and Government Regulation over "the unethical exit fee structure" will likely never occur.

I guess oceania have the benefit over the others in the sector of being the biggest care bed provider in the market and the lowest retirement village provider so if they are able to secure development sites quickly for development they could generate good increase in profits in the future as long as expenses of care bed facities dont eat away the gains made from property sales.

[couta1]

Good on you TJ for all your work and research, your doing yourself proud. There is plenty of room for all these current players in the sector due to the strong tailwinds. It's up to each investor to choose the player/s that they think will give them the best return. PS- Re post #50 and your comment on Sum and dementia beds, they are now incorporating them in their villages so it's likely that that 32% will creep up over time.

[janner]

[QUOTE=couta1;661412]Good on you TJ for all your work and research, your doing yourself proud. /QUOTE]

Agree. FWIW. Picking up ARV in the dips.

Disc. Hold ARV. No others in the industry.

[whatsup]

When you look at the recent chart of retirement sector they all have come off quite a bit over the last 3 months, is this because
1/ the sector is over priced.
2/ after a big run that they have enjoyed its time for profit taking.
3/ entry of a new player.
4/ their profit numbers are under stress.
5/ because of the higher prices oldies are staying in their homes longer with more to pass on to their spoilt kids.
6/ Possible Govt regulations coming

with all of the above is Oceania priced right and will it enter at the bottom level of its pricing guide in order for the float to be a "success " ?

[macduffy]

I've had a quick look at the Offer Document and decided it's not for me. A point in their favour though, they do have a couple of impressive independent directors, Chair Elizabeth Coutts and Alan Isaac. Neither hold shares but will have decent holdings after the IPO. I'll be sticking with RYM and SUM!