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  1. #781
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by trader_jackson View Post
    Maybe there was a magnificent turn around in OCA in the past year and a half?!?! Lol
    He was far from the only one on here 'against' OCA who have subsequently (and ironically) became shareholders.
    Funny how things change
    Quote Originally Posted by BobbyMorocco View Post
    Hey Beagle, as I was going back through this thread I read many comments from you stating that you were not interested in investing in OCA until management had proven themselves. Obviously you were concerned because at some point OCA got themselves into a large amount of debt. A lot of this debt has since been wiped off the table but I'm aware that the current CFO has been in that role since 2009, therefore I'm wondering if the risk of OCA getting a large amount of debt is still there. Over the past few months you've purchased OCA a number of times, so you obviously feel the potential rewards outweigh the risks. I'm interested know how you feel management has proven themselves since listing and what has been done to minimise the risk of them getting into financial trouble again?
    Please if you're going to quote really old posts please mention the date, (which was October 2014) LONG before the company listed. The balance sheet was a mess, in fact OCA was a new listing in 2017 that was a VERY VERY long time in the making. The company with its new directors realized they HAD to present a clean and restructured balance sheet and used the IPO proceeds to effect that. To the best of my knowledge this was the only share listing, (there were debt issues last year) in 2017.
    Some of the board have a good track record and they'll be the ones approving decisions about gearing level's.
    I'm not a big fan of IPO's but this one was listed cheap and the forward PE was and remains well below the sector average. 8.43 cps underlying from memory is the official forecast for FY18 so the forward underlying PE at 12.0 is the cheapest of the sector by quite some margin. I think you'll also find even at $1.02 the company is trading quite close to its NTA if all properties were revalued as at 31 December 2017. I hear whispers that their care standards are second to none, even not second to Ryman ! Further, they've made on or two good looking acquisitions since listing but this is very much still a case of, lets see how they go.
    There's an element of risk here for sure, no question whatsoever as they're a relatively new listing but the real estate market has been sound this last year, they are converting a LOT of care rooms into the ORA model and as mentioned they have a superb reputation with their care services. The market per se is pretty stretched and its very hard to find value. The value of this share at present has to be measured in that context. I started buying just after the IPO in the low 80 cent range, (as a way of eliminating IPO price risk). To be perfectly honest there is an element of this being a bit of a punt, nobody really knows how they're going to go as compared to forecast but in my view given market dynamics since they listed there's probably just as much chance of beating FY18's forecast as missing it. Beating the FY17 forecast doesn't count for much given the very close proximity of the listing date to the FY17 report date but a beat is a beat nonetheless so must count for a little bit. My base case assumption for 2017 at the start of the year was for nil increase in house prices for Auckland, (about right) and 3% throughout the rest of the country, was about 6.5% if I remember correctly the article containing REINZ data the other day. This augers well for FY18's results.

    T.J. if you're going to pour scorn on others posts at least have respect to get your timeframe and facts correct. I looked at their 2014 balance sheet as represented on the companies office website and it was an absolute mess in 2014.
    Last edited by Beagle; 20-01-2018 at 08:13 PM.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  2. #782
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    Quote Originally Posted by trader_jackson View Post
    Thank you couta1 for your response, and yes winner69 I am interested... but possibly not 'boots and all'... the IPO documents will be of great interest, should the IPO go ahead.
    I don't think it would be fit to compare it to SUM (this did surprise me when AFR mentioned this), at least when comparing on a build rate and land bank, but they do have a strong development ahead, in the short term. On a breif look, Operating cash flows are very strong, and ORA's have experienced good growth, with growth likely to increase in the coming years. Balance sheet heavy with debt, which is nothing new, although I am sure a significant proportion of this will disappear when listing.
    Interesting you have mentioned your reference to 2014 documents, which I think was made after this above post, and possibly even after the IPO prospectus (But I could be wrong with this second part).

    I did mention ( back in March 2017) that it was likely this 'messy' balance sheet would magically improve, And the IPO documents following these page 3 comments showed this.

    You failed to mention that you actually continued to 'dog' oca after the prospectus was issued (showing debt being cleaned up) such as claiming a 40% uplift was doubtful (or something along these lines).

    Anyhow, rather than dwelling on the past (which has certainly come back to bite some people on this thread big time), let us all look forward to the future.
    Although it helps to 'get it right' and tell the full story when setting the past straight

  3. #783
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    Quote Originally Posted by BobbyMorocco View Post
    Yeah mate, perhaps OCA has turned it around. As you can see above I've also posted a question for Beagle, as he has also changed his view over the past few months. He's completely entitled to do so, but I'm wondering if he or Couta can share what has caused them to change their views. This info could possibly be valuable to holders or potential holders.
    We all tend to comment on things as we see them at any given point of time, there is of course nothing wrong with doing this whether others agree or not. Sometimes being on the inside of the industry, you get info which can influence your opinion of a company in ways other than simply looking at balance sheet items. OCA since my initial comments have cleaned up their balance sheet, reviewed and changed their management structure, increased their development pipeline and focus, as well as being inovative by offering care suites with a licence to occupy etc. These changes have convinced me that OCA is a good value share to buy with plenty of upside over the next few years.

  4. #784
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by couta1 View Post
    We all tend to comment on things as we see them at any given point of time, there is of course nothing wrong with doing this whether others agree or not. Sometimes being on the inside of the industry, you get info which can influence your opinion of a company in ways other than simply looking at balance sheet items. OCA since my initial comments have cleaned up their balance sheet, reviewed and changed their management structure, increased their development pipeline and focus, as well as being inovative by offering care suites with a licence to occupy etc. These changes have convinced me that OCA is a good value share to buy with plenty of upside over the next few years.
    Good post. I am sure we can all agree that as time passes with new IPO's we can all improve our understanding of a freshly listed company and its prospects. For what its worth T.J. I take a deeply skeptical view of all IPO's prospectus forecasts. Its held me in very good stead with avoiding losses on listings in recent years like MPG and Tegal.

    Anyone can forecast anything they like...I once attended a function where a senior business banking manager of 40 years experience with SME's told me he'd never seen a set of forecasts that was worth the paper it was printed on...how that's for skepticism, even more deeply cynical and wary that this old hound !
    I think he'd "had a few" so was probably exaggerating for effect but nonetheless his point is well made. A very healthy dose of skepticism is warranted for any company without a long track record to assure investors otherwise.
    Last edited by Beagle; 21-01-2018 at 01:21 PM.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  5. #785
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    Yes, a lot of truth in that observation, Beagle, and we certainly need to treat IPO's "birthed" by private equity with a good deal of caution. But OCA came to market with some proven people on the board - I couldn't see Elizabeth Coutts or Alan Isaac risking their reputations on a dud listing - and OCA was well past the "Small and Medium Enterprise" stage at this point.

    Disc: Holding since the IPO.


  6. #786
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    Agreed. Directors bought on market fairly aggressively after the IPO listing right up to and including about the current level if I remember correctly which is something I value as a good indication of future prospects. Nothing like a healthy amount of your own skin in the game to motivate one
    Last edited by Beagle; 21-01-2018 at 02:40 PM.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  7. #787
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    Weren't Macquarie keen to get $1.04 for the IPO but had to settle for 79 cents

    Be interesting what the share price would be today if it had floated at $1.04

    Macquarie can hock their shares after the full year announcement sometime in July ....but things going so well and the world looking so rosy they wouldn't even be contemplating that wuld they
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  8. #788
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    Weren't Macquarie keen to get $1.04 for the IPO but had to settle for 79 cents

    Be interesting what the share price would be today if it had floated at $1.04

    Macquarie can hock their shares after the full year announcement sometime in July ....but things going so well and the world looking so rosy they wouldn't even be contemplating that wuld they
    Mr Market has already priced this in I reckon (aka the "dumping" factor), otherwise share price would be well above $1.10 by now I'm sure. Macquarie have been involved in OCA for nearly a decade I think (unlike many PE listings which are usually a few years tops), what is another 2,3 or 4 years of steady, solid share price growth and dividend? Probably in no rush to sell, or will do what Forsyth did with MET prior to OCA listing - sell it (Some or all of their holding) at a small, if any, discount to market price in a block trade.
    Last edited by trader_jackson; 21-01-2018 at 03:46 PM.

  9. #789
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    Oceania F18 guidance is Underlying EBITDA of $62.2m (confirmed at ASM) and Underlying NPAT of $51.4m

    Talk on the street (loud Koru Lounge conversation actually) is that come the half year announcement (if not before) they will raise the Underlying NPAT guidance to just under $60m, but fully expecting it be more by year end.

    If you can’t buy shares in Rocket Lab then OCA is the next best thing
    Last edited by winner69; 22-01-2018 at 07:14 AM.
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  10. #790
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post

    Talk on the street (loud Koru Lounge conversation actually)...
    are you kidding me !?? lol
    listeningears.jpg
    For clarity, nothing I say is advice....

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