OCA - Oceania Group - retirement villages

[winner69]

Underlying NPAT increased from 9m to 19.9m? wheres this 18m from?

Slide 21 of the presentation

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...390/273470.pdf

[warren]

Pro forma underlying EBITDA only increased 8.6% to $25.3m from $23.3m. Pro forma underlying NPAT only increased 10.55% to $19.9m from $18.0m. Were we not expecting 40% increases in 2018?

Oceania will need a massive second half of year to meet the forecast Pro forma underlying EBITDA OF $62.2m and Pro forma underlying NPAT of $51.4m.

I'm not impressed by the result and it would seem the market is not overly impressed either. Plenty of shares traded hands at $1.05 this morning. I can see this falling to under $1 once again.

Hello Bobby. Gee wizz, You are not impressed but I am very impressed. Lets see who is right in 12 months from now? New company paying a dividend!!!!! Has done exactly what it said it would do. A large % of income coming from my beloved aged care which is the hardest job on earth but hey, government paid, in cash, every 2 weeks!!..... and a tidal wave of it to keep coming. 4.2 cents per 79 cent share dividend p.a. --- geeeeez I cant get enough of this 80c, 1.11c, 1.05c, who cares!

[JoeGrogan]

Slide 21 of the presentation

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...390/273470.pdf

Cheers Winner seem to be confusing pro forma underlying with just ordinary underlying... Lol. So is ordinary underlying the same as the underlying profit measurement used by the rest of the sector, or is it this pro forma one?

[winner69]

Cheers Winner seem to be confusing pro forma underlying with just ordinary underlying... Lol. So is ordinary underlying the same as the underlying profit measurement used by the rest of the sector, or is it this pro forma one?

...but proforma and ‘ordinary’ seem to have different meanings from presentation to presentation

Basically comes down to how you view this thing called called ‘capital structure’ and there’s a big difference in the deferred tax adjustment as well

They don’t make things easy

Suppose we have to believe their numbers

[winner69]

So maybe it was ‘buy the rumour sell the fact’ after all.

Where’s t_j — not as quick of the mark as usual. Only took him 10 minutes to comment on the last SUM announcement ha ha

I’ll forgive him for being quiet — probably still trying to make sense of the numbers but I look forward to see how he views this result.

[BobbyMorocco]

...but proforma and ‘ordinary’ seem to have different meanings from presentation to presentation

Basically comes down to how you view this thing called called ‘capital structure’

They don’t make things easy

Suppose we have to believe their numbers

Yeah, they don't make things easy and I don't like when they chop and change figures using one here and a different one there. Of course they just choose to give us the figures that make them appear to be performing the best.

In the product disclosure statement Pro forma underlying EBITDA and Pro forma underlying NPAT were highlighted in bold. Plus the Pro forma underlying NPAT forecast of $51.4m has been thrown around a lot. This would give an EPS of 8.42c. They have stated that they will pay dividends of 50% - 60% underlying NPAT. 55% of this figure gives 4.6c and that's what I believe the dividends will be for the full year. So I expect a dividend of 2.5c after the full year results. But I also think that to achieve this they need to have a much better second half to the year or pay out more than 55% underlying NPAT.

As you can tell I don't trust these guys yet and so I remain skeptical about whether or not they can perform as they say they will.

[winner69]

Yeah, they don't make things easy and I don't like when they chop and change figures using one here and a different one there. Of course they just choose to give us the figures that make them appear to be performing the best.

In the product disclosure statement Pro forma underlying EBITDA and Pro forma underlying NPAT were highlighted in bold. Plus the Pro forma underlying NPAT forecast of $51.4m has been thrown around a lot. This would give an EPS of 8.42c. They have stated that they will pay dividends of 50% - 60% underlying NPAT. 55% of this figure gives 4.6c and that's what I believe the dividends will be for the full year. So I expect a dividend of 2.5c after the full year results. But I also think that to achieve this they need to have a much better second half to the year or pay out more than 55% underlying NPAT.

As you can tell I don't trust these guys yet and so I remain skeptical about whether or not they can perform as they say they will.

It’s got me stuffed and I’m pretty clever

But a 112% profit increase is good no matter what .....should give share price a decent boost

[Beagle]

First impressions. Solid result investing for the future. Developments on track and on budget, (no easy feat in today's market)
Underlying profit on track for 8.42 cps as per IPO forecast. Most future developments already consented removes risk compared to other sector participants.
Seems obvious to me 2H realized profit from new developments will be a lot higher than 1H.
Looking forward into 2019 and beyond they have a credible development pipeline and are slowly building a credible track record of completing developments on time and on budget. Care standards second to none. NTA is up to $1.01 per share. Good embedded value of $145k per unit. Development margin in 2H looking to be mid 30% mark which is impressive.

This looks to be a shaping up as a good core portfolio stock going forward. $1.01 / 0.842 = forward PE of just under 12. Very cheap for a sector with strong tailwinds and their stellar care reputation will hold them in good stead in terms of market demand. (Note I have used the theoretical ex divvy price in PE analysis as they're going ex very shortly)

[BobbyMorocco]

Hello Bobby. Gee wizz, You are not impressed but I am very impressed. Lets see who is right in 12 months from now? New company paying a dividend!!!!! Has done exactly what it said it would do. A large % of income coming from my beloved aged care which is the hardest job on earth but hey, government paid, in cash, every 2 weeks!!..... and a tidal wave of it to keep coming. 4.2 cents per 79 cent share dividend p.a. --- geeeeez I cant get enough of this 80c, 1.11c, 1.05c, who cares!

Hey Warren. It's not those of you that bought in at around 80c that need to worry at the moment. The dividend yield for you guys is fine and the share price will probably remain above 80c for the next 12 months so you probably won't lose capital either. Not a bad result for you lot. Those that got in on the open this morning for $1.09 I'm not so sure about.

I'll have to crunch the numbers later but my initial impression is that Oceania will have to build new units at a faster rate than what they're currently in order to keep up with Summerset who are basically just following Ryman's lead.

[warren]

It’s got me stuffed and I’m pretty clever

But a 112% profit increase is go no matter what .....should give share price a decent boost

OCA

Oceania Healthcare Limited

$1.050

-$0.030 / -2.78%

967,850

$1,031,287.07

Now, a question for someone more knowledgeable than me re on-market turnover trends etc.
Why would OCA today, have this huge turnover of shares?. It is by far the biggest no. of shares sold so far today on the market.