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  1. #1
    Legend minimoke's Avatar
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    Default If Labour wins.....?

    Over 300 pages on one topic about National winning for the upcoming election. What gives? So I'm here to start the shortest thread around.

    Sorry can't contribute much since I cant envisage such an outcome.

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    For clarity, nothing I say is advice....

  3. #3
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    Quote Originally Posted by minimoke View Post
    Over 300 pages on one topic about National winning for the upcoming election. What gives? So I'm here to start the shortest thread around.

    Sorry can't contribute much since I cant envisage such an outcome.
    It's not impossible. It will be all about coaltions. Labour/Green/internet-mana are approx equal to National. That leaves Winston to decide who will be the govt. He'll certainly get plenty of baubles for himself. Doesn't seem to be anyome else capable of much in the party. My guess is he will go National. Labour will have to give juciest baubles to Greens.
    Last edited by fungus pudding; 24-07-2014 at 09:25 PM.

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    Minimoke, I think what we are discussing on the other thread is whether National will hold onto power for another term (possible), but of course their chances of holding on in 2017 (if they get through this one) must be slim. 3 terms on, 3 terms off.

    Now if the voters of NZ were really interested in holding National to account for the last six years of performance, and even without knowing for sure how Labour would have handled the GFC and ChCh earthquakes, I don't think National would get a pass mark in September 2014.

    They are running a very good PR campaign, that's for sure. Very slick, they are spending the big cash (some of it taxpayers money), it's working so far. The public are completely oblivious to the slack job that National has done. It's in the stats. You won't see National noting about how they've paid off old govt debt (they haven't done that), or even show the borrowing record since 2008 (they have borrowed heaps). They have been inept, that's why.

    I'm still waiting for someone to tell me - one impressive thing that National has done since 2008. Just one will do.
    Last edited by elZorro; 25-07-2014 at 06:53 AM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by elZorro View Post
    I'm still waiting for someone to tell me - one impressive thing that National has done since 2008. Just one will do.
    They have kept the economy strong enough that the RBNZ hasn't had to do zero/negative interest rates like some other OECD countries.
    They have borrowed heaps to help the Chch rebuild without any effect on the countries credit rating.
    Our unemployement rates were moderate compared to the PIIGS, despite have a very high (public) debt level.

    I'm not saying they are perfect. Their biggest mistakes IMHO are:
    - blindly not addressing the retirement age (for the sake of trust, rather than good policy)
    - the tax cuts being mis-targeted to favour the rich to much
    - not unwinding some of Labours bribes, like interest free student loans and WFF (while they have wound back a bit, I would have prefered them to do it more so, maybe matched by a reduction in lower tax rates to offset)

  6. #6
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    Now if Labour did win?

    The three biggest issues I see are:
    - the NZ power scheme. If anyone has read the updates from the power co's this week, they are not the issue, it is the already highly regulated lines companies
    - CGT. Could be good but Labour aren't proposing a market leading scheme (ie. due to excluding the family home)
    - Will spending get out of control. Labour actually did quite well for their their frist 2 terms last time but as they got debt down (congratulations) they spiked spending massively which would have been disastrous leading into the GFC.

    Over laying the top of this is will they have the power to implement the policies they want or will every policy have so many exclusions, exemptions etc to pander for all the 'minor' parties that they need to get something across the line. imagine every policy needing to have no impact on Northern Maori (Mana), German criminals (internet), the old (WinstonFirst), hippies (Greens), Unions (Labour), non asians (WinstonFirst), the Uni demographic (Internet), anti industry (Greens), beneficiaries (Labour)....

  7. #7
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    I like what national have done to the family court process on separation. Removing self interested lawyers as the first port of call.

  8. #8
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    Quote Originally Posted by elZorro View Post

    I'm still waiting for someone to tell me - one impressive thing that National has done since 2008. Just one will do.
    Certainly - they have kept the socialists away from the cheque book.

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    Quote Originally Posted by belgarion View Post
    How about "make the rich even richer while screwing the disadvantaged"? ... US Republicans, fascists and the Nasties would think that's a pretty good achievement.
    The rich make themselves richer, not the govt. It's the poor that govts. prop up.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Harvey Specter View Post
    ..... - CGT. Could be good but Labour aren't proposing a market leading scheme (ie. due to excluding the family home) ........ ...
    Article on interest.co.nz a couple of days ago about residential rental yeilds (though of course proposed CGT is a great deal wider than that, catching shares and most business and farms for example):

    "The ANZ report said the implied yields nationally (from the median price and median rent data) had fallen from 7.8% in 1992 to 4.2% now. In Auckland the implied yield had fallen from 7.4% in 1992 to 3.6% this year, while in Central Otago-Lakes it had fallen from 6.8% to 3.4% over the same period."

    They are very low returns, so what would happen if a CGT was brought in and interest rates continued to rise, which is probable. Rents will rise, owners (of all liable assets) will wear the cost now and on eventual disposal of the asset, sell up and move the proceeds elsewhere and not necessarily within NZ. (How about selling up the portfolio and buying a Brancusi for example.) I would like to see some fully costed scenarios of the various alternatives. Otherwise it looks like the policy is designed to reduce Auckland house prices and increase the tax take. But will it? Who knows.

    http://www.interest.co.nz/property/7...ining-early-19

  11. #11
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    Quote Originally Posted by artemis View Post
    They are very low returns, so what would happen if a CGT was brought in and interest rates continued to rise, which is probable. Rents will rise

    ...

    Otherwise it looks like the policy is designed to reduce Auckland house prices and increase the tax take. But will it? Who knows.
    Why would rents rise? If a landlord could put up rents now they would. Just because there is a CGT doesn't mean they will be able too.

    If house prices fall, how will this increase the tax take? The irony (?) of the policy is that by the time it is implement and on stream will probably coincide with the next recession meaning there will be no 'gains' to tax.

  12. #12
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    Quote Originally Posted by artemis View Post
    They are very low returns, so what would happen if a CGT was brought in and interest rates continued to rise, which is probable.
    Not necessarily true, if CGT and interest rates reduce house price inflation yields could improve. Sure, not for those currently owning properties with inflated prices, but new entrants to the rental market should see the benefit.

  13. #13
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    Quote Originally Posted by belgarion View Post
    Um. I'd suggest wrong again.

    I was on a good six figure salary and I did nothing extra but National's tax cuts made me heaps richer.

    And the poor? Being propped up by the govt? Nope. The National government borrowed heaps from overseas to prop them up as more and more got further into poverty and the unemployment rate stayed exactly where it has been for most of the six years.

    Keep digging FP ...
    What tripe. You got a tax cut on your income. Everyone did. Your wealth doesn't come into it. We do not have wealth taxes, only income taxes. But the reduction did not make you wealthy, if you are. On a six figure income at least 30% of your income is taxed at a much higher rate than someone on 70k or less. Reducing the trop rate from 39% to 33% was a good move unless you consider it's productive to have all sorts of people devising ways to legally avoid tax, and to have all sorts of under the counter transactions going on. You might have willingly paid the higher rate, as I did, but the avoidance industry has quietened down. Even Labour acknowledges that with their far more sensible latest top rate; although if they weren't into pleasing the envious and really wanted to boost employment and the economy, they would have set it below the current 33%.

  14. #14
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    Quote Originally Posted by belgarion View Post
    Your grasp of economics is woeful! Lookup disposable income. Once you get it then figure out how much wealthier I am after six years thanks to the National Party increasing my disposable income.

    And perhaps while you're at it - calculate how much wealthier a person on the average wage - and minimum wage - would have been with their measly tax cuts that got gobbled up by the inescapable GST rise.

    Like shooting fish in a barrel. Is a fish in a barrel called a Nastie?
    If you think taxing someone at 33% and others at 10.5% is fair, so-be-it. I don't. It's damaging to the economy. There are far better ways to redistribute income which would far better assist the low paid and welfare dependants without discouraging earners or encouraging avoidance schemes and evasion. It all starts with a flat income tax. The very same % deducted from every single dollar earned no matter how or by whom. The waste caused by an escalating tax scale is tragic.

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    FP
    What specific policy initiatives would like to see a National Government implement in the next term?

  16. #16
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sgt Pepper View Post
    FP
    What specific policy initiatives would like to see a National Government implement in the next term?
    I cannot understand the question sorry.

  17. #17
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    Belge still doesn't grasp the elementary economics point that wealth is a stock and income is a flow, 2 different things.

    It's like the news media who persist in printing such tripe as GMs sales are bigger than NZ's GDP. Again 2 different things sales is a measure of gross income, GDP is a measure of net income.

    If you have pre-existing debt then you may not be wealthy at all.

  18. #18
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    Quote Originally Posted by elZorro View Post
    Minimoke, I think what we are discussing on the other thread is whether National will hold onto power for another term (possible), but of course their chances of holding on in 2017 (if they get through this one) must be slim. 3 terms on, 3 terms off.

    Now if the voters of NZ were really interested in holding National to account for the last six years of performance, and even without knowing for sure how Labour would have handled the GFC and ChCh earthquakes, I don't think National would get a pass mark in September 2014.

    They are running a very good PR campaign, that's for sure. Very slick, they are spending the big cash (some of it taxpayers money), it's working so far. The public are completely oblivious to the slack job that National has done. It's in the stats. You won't see National noting about how they've paid off old govt debt (they haven't done that), or even show the borrowing record since 2008 (they have borrowed heaps). They have been inept, that's why.

    I'm still waiting for someone to tell me - one impressive thing that National has done since 2008. Just one will do.
    Such outrageous slander. Just as well you can't be sued for talking rubbish like that. I don't think you would have many people believing you anyway, but you carry on. Labour has never done any wrong and National can't do any right - Ahahahahaha.
    EZ, la propagande est que vous ne trop mon ami.
    Silly vraiment.

  19. #19
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    Woops excusez mon francais, try this one ... EZ, la propagande est que vous aussi mon ami. Idiot vraiment. Yeah, that's better.

  20. #20
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    That's not slander, it's the truth, mon ami.

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