ARV - Arvida Retirement Villages

[Beagle]

I'm picking a result of around 20m underlying Beau.
I dont follow ARV in great detail but back of envelope stuff is last years profit less 15 % for the written off lockdown L4 sales ( the following slow month is more than compensated for the " catch up "months of sales ) then finally less about $4m of net covid costs.
If they do better than $20m underlying I will be surprised and impressed. But even s little under that will still be a solid result.
I doubt it will see $2 today but we will know very shortly.

Very good call Top Gun. I think you were very brave making a call on the underlying profit on the same morning and before the announcement ! Well done !!

Very solid result for ARV considering the ~ $5m in Covid costs expensed early in the period. Operating cash flow very strong and huge second half coming for development.

Like Winner, I am hoping you and I are just as accurate at hitting the bullseye with our OCA forecast.

[flyinglizard]

on the good track. convincing.

Attachment 12108

Gross margin is back, although 12 weeks of lockdown (12week/26 week = 46% time waste and no sales during 46% of reported timeframe, but ARV still archived a solid record). That is a very good signal. proposed new bond issue to replace bank loan (wise decision to lower the interest expense)

ARV management team, we need more aggressive approaches to step into SUM & RYM territory. After pandemic, listing in ASX, acquirision, acquirision and acquirision.

[Beagle]

[QUOTE]

Hope nobody notices the Underlying Profit per share number - went backwards at a fast rate -down from 5.0 cents pcp to 3.8 cents or 24%

That'swhat happens with big capital raises ....will become 'EPS accretive' in time

Pretty meaningless anyway ...except for those who are in love with underlying earnings[/QUOTE]

Has been the yardstick in this sector since RYM floated but hey mate...whatever methodology floats your boat...

[Jantar]

Doesn't appear that Mr Market is impressed with the result, nor the announcement about being added to the New Zealand component of the MSCI Global Micro Cap Index.

[value_investor]

My thoughts on the result:

- Result is strong considering the 6 month period April to September. We were in lockdown from for at least 2 of these six months. Its hard to read into these results too much considering the extraordinary circumstances in which they arise. Comparatives aren't going to tell you the full picture but to end up in similar position to the previous year on the underlying profit is impressive imo.

- The demise of prices in the property market has not come to fruition. The 'experts' who value this are more crystal ball gazers with an excel spreadsheet. Expect those revaluation gains to continue strongly in the future.

- Strong cash flow statement, but I'm still not sure if paying a dividend is wise. I understand it brings more people in but if they can use that cash to generate better long term returns for their investors then I'd prefer that.

- I do note, that they have had 26 new sales in 2HY so far (about 2 months) and they had 42 sales in 1HY in a total of 6 months. I expect a bit of a bounce back. I think you have to remember that these are all backwards looking, while in the midst of lockdown numbers. Forward looking numbers will be interesting for ARV but the sector in general.

All in all, a solid but unspectacular result. I'll continue to hold, and accumulate at sub $1.50 prices.

[Waltzing]

if the structural factors behind construction in new zealand are a fundamental subconscious mind set in the country setting itself up for yet more profits in the retirement sector..


https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/opi...housing-market

[trader_jackson]

I have been busy lately, but I must disclose I actually sold about 3/4ths of my ARV holding at $1.71 early in October... I noticed it then went virtually straight up (by another 10%) over the next month, but I notice it is now trading a bit below $1.71.

As many of you will know, like my other 'favorite' share starting with an A, I have held ARV shares since IPO (topping up occasionally). Having provided me an average return of 16% in the almost exact 6 years since I started holding, it has done "not good, not bad" (having produced a return about the same as the NZX 50). At $1.71, I thought this was a fair value, and decided to take some off the table for ARV (and a few other companies, like my recent sell down in my other 'favorite' share starting with an A).

I continue to be a happy holder simply because I believe their business model is robust and based around a solid product offering, backed by a company I genuinely think is doing their best not only for shareholders, but for residents and staff.

[Beagle]

I have been busy lately, but I must disclose I actually sold about 3/4ths of my ARV holding at $1.71 early in October... I noticed it then went virtually straight up (by another 10%) over the next month, but I notice it is now trading a bit below $1.71.

As many of you will know, like my other 'favorite' share starting with an A, I have held ARV shares since IPO (topping up occasionally). Having provided me an average return of 16% in the almost exact 6 years since I started holding, it has done "not good, not bad" (having produced a return about the same as the NZX 50). At $1.71, I thought this was a fair value, and decided to take some off the table for ARV (and a few other companies, like my recent sell down in my other 'favorite' share starting with an A).

I continue to be a happy holder simply because I believe their business model is robust and based around a solid product offering, backed by a company I genuinely think is doing their best not only for shareholders, but for residents and staff.

Hard to believe all that enthusiasm was to no net effect. A lot of energy expended when you could have done just as well in a no effort index tracking fund. RYM also exactly matched the NZX50 over the last 5 years when I checked the other day.

It occurs to me you have to be pretty shrewd with your stock selection and also with your timing in this sector if you want to beat the NZX50.

[trader_jackson]

Hard to believe all that enthusiasm was to no net effect. A lot of energy expended when you could have done just as well in a no effort index tracking fund. RYM also exactly matched the NZX50 over the last 5 years when I checked the other day.

It occurs to me you have to be pretty shrewd with your stock selection and also with your timing in this sector if you want to beat the NZX50.

Given people were writing off ARV since day 1 (even before day 1!), I think ARV has done far better than many were saying it would and I am pleased to be part of the success story that is ARV... I bet 6 years ago you weren't thinking you'd be saying today that ARV has made the same return as RYM and the NZX 50. It is unfortunate to think a large part of the NZX's performance over the past 6 years is purely because of interest rates decreasing (and very little to do with actual company performance, which in some cases, eg MCY, has rallied massively over the past 6 years despite producing earnings roughly the same as 6 years ago)
It is stunning how high sum other listed operator seem to defy the odds and trade on elevated levels despite delivering less and less over the years.

[macduffy]

It is stunning how high sum other listed operator seem to defy the odds and trade on elevated levels despite delivering less and less over the years.

Yes, the skill is in being able to identify such s/p performers despite their lacklustre financial results.

Disc: I hold sum other listed operator (and ARV ).