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01-04-2019, 10:38 PM
#691
Originally Posted by trader_jackson
ARV, the dog that once beat all the others, beat most of the others in the past financial year.
Having a quick look back at the past 52 weeks (as at today - taken from NZX website), here are the total returns for the listed operators:
1. RYM with 16.0%
2. ARV with 10.2%
3. OCA with 3.0%
4. SUM with -4.9%
5. MET with - 14.7%
Alot of contrast really with over 30% gap between first and last. I suppose RYM really is the gold standard after all, but I'm sure 52 weeks ago almost nobody on this forum wouldn't have thought ARV would come in a comfortable 2nd. It appears sum cracks are starting to appear in sum other track records, while others are really coming into their own... what is clear is that the top 3 all have a strong care offering as part of their overall product offering... I would go as far as to say the last 52 weeks above has been very much a vote on the quality of their respective care offerings.
No, this is not an April fools post
Correct TJ. If one purchased this a year ago.
However you have been extolling this one for many more years than one.
It was two years ago that it hit the all time high of $1.375.
How long will it take for ARV to return to those heady days ?..
Disc. Hold a few.
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28-05-2019, 08:50 AM
#692
Pretty solid report t_j
In line with others
Long way from being a ‘dog’ but not best in show
If they made there presentations more glossy like and used more posh words might add 5% or more to the share price ..but honest down to earth stuff is admirable even if not rewarded
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...136/300592.pdf
”When investors are euphoric, they are incapable of recognising euphoria itself “
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28-05-2019, 08:52 AM
#693
Looks like being a slight 'beat' - most seemed to have underlying profit at $37m, so to some in slightly above that is very solid indeed.
On a quick read, looking very solid.
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28-05-2019, 09:12 AM
#694
Originally Posted by winner69
Pretty solid report t_j
In line with others
Long way from being a ‘dog’ but not best in show
If they made there presentations more glossy like and used more posh words might add 5% or more to the share price ..but honest down to earth stuff is admirable even if not rewarded
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...136/300592.pdf
In line with the others? I am sure sum others (if not all others) haven't managed to produce an increasing NPAT... and that NPAT is the line that counts, right?
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28-05-2019, 09:50 AM
#695
Wow ARV delivering growth of 16% underlying earnings per share growth for the past 4 years! Pretty good track record I reckon, and one that is likely to continue... anyway we'll get to the bottom line number winner likes (or told me he liked the most a year or something ago) - NPAT, or more specifically, Earnings per share – basic:
RYM FY18: 77.6 cents
RYM FY19: 65.2 cents (down 16%)
SUM FY18: 109.78 cents
SUM FY19: 97.13 cents (down 11.5%)
ARV FY18: 15.53 cents
ARV FY19: 14.27 cents (down 8.1%)
Wow - ARV looks like a star, with earnings per share only falling half of that of the famed RYM
No margin pressure either at ARV (in fact, they are expected to increase they say) and implied net asset value comfortably above share price.
Looks to be building as fast as OCA as well (except unlike OCA in their 1H19, they aren't building more, and $$ going down still..)
Given how 'scary' it is for sum operators right now, with margin pressures build rates being much higher than sell rates, struggling to make money in care, this is indeed a very solid result and ARV are "well positioned"
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28-05-2019, 10:01 AM
#696
Price still down from yearly high of $1.36 so market not that impressed.
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28-05-2019, 10:05 AM
#697
Originally Posted by couta1
Price still down from yearly high of $1.36 so market not that impressed.
Please mention how far down sum other operators are... I think you'll find it is a bit more than 3.6% or so (even worse when you consider the dividends paid out)
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28-05-2019, 10:12 AM
#698
Originally Posted by trader_jackson
Please mention how far down sum other operators are... I think you'll find it is a bit more than 3.6% or so (even worse when you consider the dividends paid out)
Yep SUM other operators down a whopping 30% for the year, ARV pretty stable by comparison aye.
Last edited by couta1; 28-05-2019 at 10:15 AM.
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28-05-2019, 10:23 AM
#699
While the underlying profit is nicely up , just as anticipated, the earnings per share is only up 5.2% on last year. They seem to be always increasing the shares on issue.
fy17 -261 million shares ,eps.0888.
fy18-371 million shares,eps .0887.
fy19-414 million shares,eps.0933.
I`m very happy with the result as it was exactly where it should be but it is not as "amazing " as it first seems. To me its a great result as it indicates stability, predictability and steady as she goes over the industry.
Like all of the sector (especially the new boys ARV and OCA), it is a slow but sure journey that takes plenty of time. I`m happy ARV are doing just fine but the 5.2% underlying profit(per share) increase is not better than RYM 11%. Nor SUM 21% increase , although 5 months ago now.
By the way , I don`t accept the recent forums "adoptance" that SUM`s margins are failing, they certainly arn`t (at present ). I presume that myth has come from the CEO`s comments that they are ANTICIPATING a softening of margins, they haven't arrived yet. That will apply to everyone when/if they do come.
Last edited by Maverick; 28-05-2019 at 10:29 AM.
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28-05-2019, 10:34 AM
#700
Member
Originally Posted by Maverick
While the underlying profit is nicely up , just as anticipated, the earnings per share is only up 5.2% on last year. They seem to be always increasing the shares on issue.
fy17 -261 million shares ,eps.0888.
fy18-371 million shares,eps .0887.
fy19-414 million shares,eps.0933.
I`m very happy with the result as it was exactly where it should be but it is not as "amazing " as it first seems. To me its a great result as it indicates stability, predictability and steady as she goes over the industry.
Like all of the sector (especially the new boys ARV and OCA), it is a slow but sure journey that takes plenty of time. I`m happy ARV are doing just fine but the 5.2% underlying profit(per share) increase is not better than RYM 11%. Nor SUM 21% increase , although 5 months ago now.
By the way , I don`t accept the recent forums "adoptance" that SUM`s margins are failing, they certainly arn`t (at present ). I presume that myth has come from the CEO`s comments that they are ANTICIPATING a softening of margins, they haven't arrived yet. That will apply to everyone when/if they do come.
Nice post Maverick, it helps to have a clear perspective.
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