When they had their hand out for money they said they were comfortable with analysts forecast if $67m underlying profit for the business pre acquisition and cap raise.
That’s 12.4 cents per share ……acquisition to be be eps accretive ……add a bit more to the $67m and use weighted number of shares (thats allowing for the new ones) punters should be expecting underlying earnings of say 13.5 cps
So peat I’d say PE (ue) is about 14
Is that even a thing?
“ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”
23/11/2021, 10:47 am GENERAL
Arvida Group Limited confirms that a relative of a resident who lives independently at its Ocean Shores village in Mount Maunganui tested positive for Covid-19 yesterday.
The resident has now tested negative for Covid-19. A further surveillance test we will be conducted a few days.
Arvida said 93% of residents at Ocean Shores are fully vaccinated.
Arvida is assisting the Ministry of Health to perform contact tracing and precautionary testing of staff and residents.
“ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”
underlying PE of about 19 is that even a thing.
I think it should be.
I reckon you're about right Peat. I get pe18 with the second half always being better.
It's a good company for sure but with bugger all eps growth for a few years now I can see why the market is looking through some good stuff in that report.
(RYM is in the same boat but was way to lofty for flattish results)
I do like that they are increasing their build rates. New build margins make a huge difference to their underlying profits.
Its always difficult to really breakdown ARVs numbers since they are always acquiring stuff.
I've estimated mine in anticipation of a better hy2 so mines a forward PE.
My overall concern with ARV is its growth is being constantly diluted as it bolts on more villages that I cant really see much value add stuff. Sure they will be eps acreditive but I'm not seeing how these already functioning modernish villages can be improved by a whole lot.
That simply dilutes the bigger growing profits of the building stuff they've got under way.
That's another reason I think a current PE is about right
They were comfortable with $67m for full year so implicitly comfortable with a boomer H2 of $40m ....wow
I'm sticking with my PE (for FY22) of 14
Looking forward with growth on the $67m (base) and $34m plus growth from the acquisition you'd expect underlying earnings of at least $110m in F23 - eps 15.3 cps so forward looking PE of 12 to 13
As t_j says he can't understand why share price is under 2 bucks ..... must be worth at least $2.50 now and $3.00 in a years time.
“ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”
They were comfortable with $67m for full year so implicitly comfortable with a boomer H2 of $40m ....wow
I'm sticking with my PE (for FY22) of 14
Looking forward with growth on the $67m (base) and $34m plus growth from the acquisition you'd expect underlying earnings of at least $110m in F23 - eps 15.3 cps so forward looking PE of 12 to 13
As t_j says he can't understand why share price is under 2 bucks ..... must be worth at least $2.50 now and $3.00 in a years time.
Sounds good to me. I will hold "doggedly" and see how we go over the next 10 years. Development margin improved from 14 to 17% so that's okay-ish but certainly lags the sector average. Unit prices up 4% but lags the real estate index by quite a long way. I think they need a really tough procurement manager to boost those development margins. Probably a solid-ish result more accurately describes this. I'm okay to hold long term but not going to get too waggle tailed and barky about it. I give them a C+ Okay performance but must try harder.
Coutts and I are going to need deep pockets for our adjoining Queenstown Country Club villa's in a decades time. I see they're $1.44m now...built 10 and 4 still on the market. Wonder how much they will be in the early 2030's
Last edited by Beagle; 23-11-2021 at 01:54 PM.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
Yet they continue to pay hefty dividends - thus needing to borrow more than they should have had to. ( H1 FCF negative $17m and dividend $$8m and borrowings up $29M)
And the dividends are unimputed so generous shareholders pay a tidy sum to the taxman
Just doesn't make much sense this insistence on paying dividends
“ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”
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Originally Posted by peat
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