You should have listened ..... nothing has ever been accretive with Arvida over the years .... zillions of new share with diminishing returns
Surprised they haven't come out with an update --- underlying earnings cant possibly be coming in with what they said they were comfortable with at the cap raise time ..... surely disclosure rules apply here
Blackrock duped Beagle. They confused my nose with a bar of chocolate (eps accretive talk), put me in a perfectly round room and told me there was a bone in the corner. Being going in circles with this ever since and I'll be licking my wounds from this one for a while...still, I suppose it could be worse, I could have bought more OCA instead lol
Last edited by Beagle; 11-02-2022 at 02:59 PM.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
Blackrock duped Beagle. They confused my nose with a bar of chocolate (eps accretive talk), put me in a perfectly round room and told me there was a bone in the corner. Being going in circles with this ever since and I'll be licking my wounds from this one for a while...
I have a few ....suppose I'll hold to see what happens ..... no point selling and putting it in say OCA .... ARV probably will 'outperform' OCA anyway
“ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”
I have a few ....suppose I'll hold to see what happens ..... no point selling and putting it in say OCA .... ARV probably will 'outperform' OCA anyway
I let half mine go yesterday. Can only be half right or half wrong from here on in...using highly creative accounting I might be able to convince myself I'm ahead no matter what happens from here lol
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
Given most outfits in the sector probably report mostly revaluation / development gains
as bulk of their Surpluses in their financials I've been out of the sector for a while
I've had enough and have sold out. From the capital raise I distinctly remember all the conditionality around the eps accretive statements. Whole pile of stuff in the fine print. They already have a whole litany of pre-prepared excuses why the recent acquisition won't be eps accretive.
They teased and fooled me with that eps accretive talk...like dirty talk to a Beagle, telling him the size of his food bowl will increase.
Take the loss on the chin like a man and move on.
I have serious reservation these deserve to trade at any premium to NTA as Winner is quite right, they have a long history of issuing heaps of new shares and growing eps very slowly. Also their development margins have never been crash hot and will be under the pump with supply chain issues and rampant construction cost inflation and a falling real estate market.
Previously, some months back I thought the huge ramp up they had forecast in new unit build was a strength, now I see it as a material risk.
Last edited by Beagle; 14-02-2022 at 03:44 PM.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
Over the past month the below falls have occurred:
RYM: -19.5%
ARV: -16.7%
OCA: -16.2%
SUM: -11.8%
vs NZX 50: - 6.4%
I would have thought given these fairly sizable moves there may have been an update from OCA, ARV or RYM... instead there has been not even a pep.
If the aren't going to do what they previously indicated, and some in the market seem to believe this is definitely the case, then they should update the market accordingly...
If things continue to deteriorate I would have thought this would warrant some sort of update from the company (ie more than a 20% decline within 1 month, which would put ARV on $1.53 by the end of this week, far outpacing the drop in the broader index NZX 50)
Last edited by trader_jackson; 14-02-2022 at 04:05 PM.
At the time of the cap raise Arvida said 'they are comfortable with market consensus of Underlying Earnings of $67m'........thats up 31% on F21 result. Base FY22 eps is therefore 12.35 cents - up 29% on F21. This should be the base for any EPS accretion calculation in future.
They then acquired Arena and reasonable to assume a third of the stated $32m-$34m underlying earnings comes through in F22. That takes the base $67m up to $78m ..... and on a weighted average number of shares gives EPS for F22 of about 13.6 cents ---- up 40% on F21
The way the share price is heading it does seem it could say they they exaggerated a bit ... too hopeful
At 160 that puts them on a PE of 11 if their expectations turn into reality .... and with heaps of growth to come in F23 with full year Arena blah blah
Maybe they have run out of gunk and can't get anymore to fix all the leaks they inherited
Last edited by winner69; 14-02-2022 at 04:14 PM.
“ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”
Originally Posted by winner69
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