ARV - Arvida Retirement Villages

[percy]

Yeah it has about one tenth the potential of Ryman, there is nothing really for Mr Market to understand except that this is primarily a care based company with a few add on villas as opposed to the big three being primarily property development companies ( More so with Ryman and Sum) Once Oceania lists Arvida will have another company to compete with on an Apples for Apples basis.

Thank you Couta1 for being "right on the money."

[Leftfield]

I am not sure where you get your numbers from, but a report prepared by Forsyth on 23rd march listed the following PE:

The figs quoted in my post #127 were current as supplied from the ANZ Securities Direct Broking site as at yesterday's prices. DYOR.

[trader_jackson]

The figs quoted in my post #127 were current as supplied from the ANZ Securities Direct Broking site as at yesterday's prices. DYOR.

Yes it is quite weird... not sure where Forsyth get their numbers from... I to look forward to (and hope!) Oceania lists, as it will provide a better comparison (retirement village vs retirement village rather than retirement village vs property development company)

[winner69]

From a bit by Chris Lee on the Ryman thread -

It may also provide hope for Arvida and Oceania, both of which have shareholders who simply want to exit what has been a very lean business model.

Chris Lee doesn't get it does he t_j - its about a transfer of riches to a new breed of investors eh

[OldGuy]

TJ has to be the least convincing company-sponsored poster on this site. Hilarious.

[OldGuy]

Yes it is quite weird... not sure where Forsyth get their numbers from... I to look forward to (and hope!) Oceania lists, as it will provide a better comparison (retirement village vs retirement village rather than retirement village vs property development company)

ummm..property development is a critical part of a retirement village business model. Without it, there are no villages (except via expensive acquisition, which Arvida have already done very badly)

[trader_jackson]

ummm..property development is a critical part of a retirement village business model. Without it, there are no villages (except via expensive acquisition, which Arvida have already done very badly)

I am interested to know why you think Arvida did a "very bad expensive acquisition" (I assume you are talking about the high quality Aria villages?)

[King1212]

I am interested to know why you think Arvida did a "very bad expensive acquisition" (I assume you are talking about the high quality Aria villages?)

People can say whatever their opinions, but let the market and time determine the company value....

[Hectorplains]

yes, I am aware with all blacks sellers too this mid year. However, If they are smart, they will hold thier shares. Like u said, what retirement sector can give u a high yield like Arvida?

This, from the NZ Herald business article on McCaw today:

"The bulk of McCaw's holdings were rolled up and floated on the NZX in late 2014 as Arvida. According to an analysis of the company's prospectus and various rest home shareholding lists filed with the Companies Office, it appears McCaw's stake in Arvida stood at just under 1 per cent at the time it listed in late 2014. While a small stake, its value was nonetheless considerable, with Herald calculations suggesting it was worth in excess of $2.5 million.
Subsequent shareholding lists filed by the retirement home operators to the Companies Office appear to show McCaw has since sold down his holdings. A November disclosure showed McCaw's remaining stake stood at just 105,000 shares, worth around $107,000 at last week's prices."

The escrow period then would appear to have already ended. The rest of the article presents McCaw as a 'smart' operator.

[Lewylewylewy]

The escrow period was supposed to be the 30th of may. I've been waiting for this date, expecting a drop due to increased supply... However the SP ran away about a week ago from its meandering 90s.

I wanted in on this due to diversity in the sector, but am not a fan due to the words management have used around growth - feels like they're tired and not striving to dominate the market. I figured after escrow I might get a bargain, looks like that's not happening. Can't really see a good reason other than low interest rates for recent SP moves.