ARV - Arvida Retirement Villages

[winner69]

Have they ever mentioned growing the listed capital markets in the time they have been in power?

Does the detailed cash flow statement for this crowd only come in the audit end of year report.

All in this waltz

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...908/371835.pdf

[Waltzing]

Thats the one not the investor preso...

looks like costs rampart as per OCA.

[Beagle]

I'm taking a nice long holiday from any analysis on retirement village companies. Market has spoken today. Real estate is in freefall and the Government are strangling the life out of the care sector. I reckon that's all you need to know is terms of the future share price direction of this sector at present. The higher the percentage of care in your business model the worse off you are and in my opinion that's not going to change any year soon. All are uninvestable for the foreseeable future except SUM who have a very care lite model but with that one I reckon you might as well wait for a new uptrend which realistically, probably won't happen anytime soon.

[Waltzing]

"higher the percentage of care in your business model the worse off you are and in my opinion that's not going to change any year soon."

the Annual report seems to confirm this.

A farther drill down into operating costs may reveal what MR B alludes to and it seems to be in both sets of Accounts OCA and ARV.

Profitable divisions of the business cover for the loss making.

[RGR367]

Staffing issue is now in full swing........

https://www.stuff.co.nz/timaru-herald/timaru-top-stories/300612953/nursing-crisis-forces-closure-of-33-hospitallevel-beds-in-timaru'

[trader_jackson]

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...544/373770.pdf

Wasn't able to attend, but given nobody else has posted about the AGM, in fact about nothing for over 2 weeks, I assume at the very least the sausage rolls were okay?
If they were anything like the presentation, then I imagine they'd taste 'well positioned' and be very easy to digest.

I noticed that the 2H22 dividend payment (3.0c) is expected to be sustainable for FY23 - so if it is 6.0 cents per share for the year, this would put ARV on a fairly decent 4% yield, with dividend growth year on year of 10% - but the yield and dividend increase aside, if this guidance of 6cps dividend is towards the lower end of the 40-60% underlying profit range, given 5.5 cents per share paid in FY22 was 54% of underlying profit, then this would imply ARV are expecting a large increase in underlying profit for FY23... that would contrast with what Mr Market things markedly it would seem
or am I reading this all wrong?

[bottomfeeder]

NTA per share is at $1.84, why is the SP dropping a few cents today.

[winner69]

NTA per share is at $1.84, why is the SP dropping a few cents today.

Maybe the market doesn’t believe the $1.84 and expect the NTA to fall over the next year.

Share price way down from what they got when they held their hands out for more cash eh

Just buy now bottom feeder …if it’s going to drop more it won’t be by much

[winner69]

Last November ARV raised $330m from selling shares at $1.96 and $1.85

Those shares are now worth $243m - wow that's $87m down the gurgler .... wonder how many of the keen punters who excitedly mopped them up are still holding

But the stock exchange did its job - a place for companies to raise capital

[trader_jackson]

Maybe the market doesn’t believe the $1.84 and expect the NTA to fall over the next year.

Share price way down from what they got when they held their hands out for more cash eh

Just buy now bottom feeder …if it’s going to drop more it won’t be by much

Compared to other listed retirement villages, ARV has one of the lower unit price to house price ratios (ie wider gap between their unit prices and average house prices = less chance of their unit prices being compressed), more conservatively geared, has a strong continuum of care focus (which makes their villages more attractive to those who don't), topped off by having an arguably more conservative growth path... and despite these 4 key 'defensive' factors, the market is saying the NTA of $1.84 is nothin but fake news and is really more like $1.40 (which is a 24% discount) then one would think things are in serious trouble for sum other listed retirement villages... if not all listed property related stocks on the NZX...