ARV - Arvida Retirement Villages

[bottomfeeder]

On an initial quick look, whats not to like? Unlike sum other operators, IFRS profit and NTA has actually gone up... so despite performing much better than the likes of OCA, ARV is priced at virtually the same.

Suits me fine, well placed to go ahead while the industry and economy settles down. Good NTA, should see this going to at least $1.50.

[trader_jackson]

Pretty amazing result --- pretty close to what they indicated in that recent newsletter

No surprises

Yes tj ... what's not to like

ARV is now very clearly in a league of its own - or at least in a league above RYM and OCA (which both had patchy results)... hopefully Mr Market will begin to recognize this as currently ARV's price to NTA is borderline appalling at just above 0.6x... appalling because ARV has proved the naysayers wrong yet again by produced a pretty stunning result, especially given the market conditions/doom and gloom etc... topped off by this positive comment: With strong demand for retirement village living, an improving aged-care environment and a lowly geared balance sheet, Arvida is well placed to deliver improved performance into the second half of the financial year. They already had a great first half, so to improve again on this will be truly amazing

[Rawz]

solid! profit up, sales up, op cash flow up. strong balance sheet.

how do they do it??

[winner69]

Seems they have donw OK on the sales side but day to day costs are hurting them. The difference between realised gains on sales and Underlying NPAT is a negative $4.8m - over the last few years its has averaged positive $5m

I call this the 'Operating Surplus from Day to Day Operations'. How much they make from non-property stuff - running villages and caring for people etc. Recent numbers ($000) have been

H119 6,179
H219 5,396
H120 5,466
H220 6,964
H121 5,250
H221 4,388
H122 3,258
H222 1,624
H123 -4,822

The last half is bad and follows a weak H222. I think these recent numbers are the impact/cost of all the things like wages/costs/govt subsidiies they keep talking about - they are becoming a real drag on earnings

[Goose]

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...185/384548.pdf

Disclosure notice on day of results announcement for on market purchases 23 & 24 November. They state:

Acquisition of ordinary shares on market,with the acquisition completed by PeterAmbrose as trustee of the P T AmbroseFamily Trust without the involvement orprior knowledge of Michael Ambrose(independent trustee and non-beneficialowner)

Tui...I'm not really buying that with the timing, it seems a tad 'wrong' to me.

[Baa_Baa]

Seems they have donw OK on the sales side but day to day costs are hurting them. The difference between realised gains on sales and Underlying NPAT is a negative $4.8m - over the last few years its has averaged positive $5m

I call this the 'Operating Surplus from Day to Day Operations'. How much they make from non-property stuff - running villages and caring for people etc. Recent numbers ($000) have been

H119 6,179
H219 5,396
H120 5,466
H220 6,964
H121 5,250
H221 4,388
H122 3,258
H222 1,624
H123 -4,822

The last half is bad and follows a weak H222. I think these recent numbers are the impact/cost of all the things like wages/costs/govt subsidiies they keep talking about - they are becoming a real drag on earnings

Are you sure this is valid? Ugly picture if it is. Wheels fallen off in H123, is it recoverable H223?

Attachment 14359Attachment 14358

[BlackPeter]

Pretty amazing result --- pretty close to what they indicated in that recent newsletter

No surprises

Yes tj ... what's not to like

Anybody reading the outlook?

[trader_jackson]

Anybody reading the outlook?

Yes and even that was to like: With strong demand for retirement village living, an improving aged-care environment and a lowly geared balance sheet, Arvida is well placed to deliver improved performance into the second half of the financial year.

No wonder the share price will (hopefully) be back in the $1.30's by the end of today, if not by lunch time.

[BlackPeter]

Yes and even that was to like: With strong demand for retirement village living, an improving aged-care environment and a lowly geared balance sheet, Arvida is well placed to deliver improved performance into the second half of the financial year.

No wonder the share price will (hopefully) be back in the $1.30's by the end of today, if not by lunch time.

Confirmation bias is an amazing thing.

I was more thinking about that bit:

With a difficult economic outlook, delivery targets for FY24 have been retained at the level of 250+ new homes per year.
Funding for aged care continues to materially lag the actual cost of care that is now resulting in the loss of care beds throughout New Zealand.

[trader_jackson]

Confirmation bias is an amazing thing.

I was more thinking about that bit:

This was from May (when full year results were announced):
Commenting Mr Beverley said the environment for the year ahead included many uncertainties and some significant challenges for the New Zealand economy and property market.

Funding for aged care continues to materially lag the actual cost of care, which is resulting in considerable financial pressure for traditional aged care operations. Acute nurse shortages in the healthcare sector are also challenging the continued provision of services in some regions.

Not saying it isn't true, it is, but 6 months later, ARV continue to perform very well...