ARV - Arvida Retirement Villages

[trader_jackson]

Finished on $1.09 today... astonishing, and not in a good way, the share price has almost halved over the past year, yet profits, cash flows, you name it are on track to exceed the previous year (ie records will be broken!) with an extremely solid 1st half recently confirming this

The surprising thing in all this is ARV is one of the least leveraged of the listed stocks (ie least vulnerable to interest rate rises), makes some money on the care side of things (unlike SUM others) + produced much better results than OCA and RYM recently, including being the only one to actually see an increase in profits (both IFRS and underlying).

With an NTA of $1.93, recently increased profits and cashflows (which are expected to continue), topped off with a very solid 8 year track record of steady growth in dividends and earnings per share, a share price of $1.09 (44% discount to NTA) would seem unreal... yet that is ARV as it stands today...

We live in crazy times, but crazy times can throw up unheard of and rarely repeated opportunities.

[justakiwi]

The details of the pay parity agreement are still not yet known, but Andrew Little stated that employers who are already paying their RNs at the DHB rates, will not receive this extra funding. I am aware that some providers have been meeting the additional cost of paying their nurses at the higher rates, which, if Little is correct, means they will not benefit at all from the pay parity agreement. Whether Arvida is one of those providers I have no idea.

We need to wait for further details to be released before we can factor any "extra income" into the equation.

One point that took my eye this time is that ARV has 257 registered nurses providing care. The Government has stated it will fund pay parity going forward, although exactly when hasn't been specifically identified to the industry. This will surely add $3 - $4m pa directly to ARV's bottom line when it does occur, and additionally the daily rate subsidy for care bed occupancy has increased by 5.5% from 1 September. So the least profitable sector of ARV's activities could contribute a little more in future, although any private sector activity which depends on government funding is doomed to mediocrity at best.

[winner69]

Finished on $1.09 today... astonishing, and not in a good way, the share price has almost halved over the past year, yet profits, cash flows, you name it are on track to exceed the previous year (ie records will be broken!) with an extremely solid 1st half recently confirming this

The surprising thing in all this is ARV is one of the least leveraged of the listed stocks (ie least vulnerable to interest rate rises), makes some money on the care side of things (unlike SUM others) + produced much better results than OCA and RYM recently, including being the only one to actually see an increase in profits (both IFRS and underlying).

With an NTA of $1.93, recently increased profits and cashflows (which are expected to continue), topped off with a very solid 8 year track record of steady growth in dividends and earnings per share, a share price of $1.09 (44% discount to NTA) would seem unreal... yet that is ARV as it stands today...

We live in crazy times, but crazy times can throw up unheard of and rarely repeated opportunities.

Don’t worry t_j

As we all know - the markets are in the short term a voting machine and in the long term a weighing machine ... it’s just that Arvida isn’t the prettiest contestant in the beauty pageant …her time will come when they get to the intellectual part of the contest

[bull....]

summerset putting on hold there building of retirement village in parnell

say rising building costs and falling property market make the project not viable

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...I6JBCEPNZUZDI/

wonder if arv being affected by same

[bull....]

major event next year add's big risk to sector

Review of Retirement Villages Act begins in 2023

At a high level, the review is set to consider whether the current Act and all its parts remain fit for purpose

https://www.hud.govt.nz/news/review-...egins-in-2023/

[ronaldson]

Paul Ridley-Smith (Director) has given notice of the acquisition of 100k ARV shares on-market on 23 December at $1.16, so at a minimum that's encouraging support for current price levels.

[winner69]

Paul Ridley-Smith (Director) has given notice of the acquisition of 100k ARV shares on-market on 23 December at $1.16, so at a minimum that's encouraging support for current price levels.

Been a loyal supporter of cap raises and DRPs over the years

They say it’s always good to see insiders buying

[winner69]

Paul Ridley-Smith (Director) has given notice of the acquisition of 100k ARV shares on-market on 23 December at $1.16, so at a minimum that's encouraging support for current price levels.

Hope he’s back in buying mode ……needs somebody to keep price falling today

112 and overscan 111 ouch

[Greekwatchdog]

Hope he’s back in buying mode ……needs somebody to keep price falling today

112 and overscan 111 ouch

Great buying for the long term investors just like OCA...

[ronaldson]

Today's "Australian" newspaper has run a significant article stating that 7 in 10 nursing homes in that country are currently running at a loss, concluding that the future of Australia's residential aged-care system under critical threat and noting that occupancy rates are also falling.

Given the length of time the sector has been underfunded there is a need for "structural change".

My own view is that Government cannot fix this issue, especially given the inexorable demographic tides, and that society will have to accept that ordinary people will need to contribute significantly more than at present from their own resources towards supported living in aged care. Reduction in subsidy will need to be accompanied by deregulation and a lessening of control over these facilities, whatever the consequences of that are.