ARV - Arvida Retirement Villages

[trader_jackson]

The herald could always be wrong... in fact I can't find what they are talking about (but I am probably looking at the wrong thing) I do recall one/some of the management team buying up shares during/around this period

[Hectorplains]

The escrow period was supposed to be the 30th of may. I've been waiting for this date, expecting a drop due to increased supply... However the SP ran away about a week ago from its meandering 90s.

I wanted in on this due to diversity in the sector, but am not a fan due to the words management have used around growth - feels like they're tired and not striving to dominate the market. I figured after escrow I might get a bargain, looks like that's not happening. Can't really see a good reason other than low interest rates for recent SP moves.

McDonald said at the AGM, mid last year, that about 60% of Arvida shares were held in escrow by various holders who could only sell after 30/5/16. McCaw's holding must then not have included in that sale restriction.

Hey, you may still get your wish. 60% is potentially a shed load of shares.If I remember rightly, SLI had a similarly escrow (albeit married with the company's under performance) provision for their founding holders. Their share price was decimated after that date with large parcels being dumped on the market.

[777]

Maybe they could sell to others also restricted, just not on the open market.

[OldGuy]

I am interested to know why you think Arvida did a "very bad expensive acquisition" (I assume you are talking about the high quality Aria villages?)

let's just say that I have consulted to this company and was not particularly impressed with what I discovered. Thanks

[whatsup]

$1.02 now.

[trader_jackson]

$1.08 now...

[winner69]

$1.20 soon

[trader_jackson]

I think it is very good ARV Management listened to minor share holders comments and took the time to see what large escrowed share holders intend to do... this will reduce uncertainty that panic share sales will happen immediately after May 30

https://www.nzx.com/companies/ARV/announcements/281414

In my view, looks like we really could be heading to $1.20 now that pressure from escrowed shares is likely to be almost non existent!

Clearly their largest share holders have great confidence in management and ARV's ambitions, I would have expected them to sell a bit more just to get some cash, but then again, why sell a company with a steadily rising share price, underpinned by defensive earnings and a dividend yield unheard of in the retirement sector?

Could also hint that these majority shareholders (ie the villages themselves) are expecting a very nice May 25 announcement , we already know it is going to be well ahead of IPO forecasts...

[OldGuy]

TJ - keep your eyes wide open. Investors often change their minds, and they also often don't reveal their true intentions (because doing so would undermine their wider play)

[trader_jackson]

Investors often change their minds, and they also often don't reveal their true intentions (because doing so would undermine their wider play)

Very true, although I doubt they would purposeful come out with a statement saying they expect to sell 2 million shares, and then go ahead and dump 10 million on the market (in short period of time)... they'd likely get some inquiry form the NZX as to why they would 'mislead' the market... still possible over a long period of time to gradually sell down of course, just nice to know there is (most likely) not going to be any immediate downward pressure on the share price, as a result of escrowed shares coming off escrow