ARV - Arvida Retirement Villages

[bottomfeeder]

The listed NTA in a lowish difficult market must mean a potentially much higher NTA when the Nats fix up our uncertain economy. Interesting times with ARV over the next 12 months.

[WAIKEN]

Great analysis bottomfeeder

[ronaldson]

DRIP shares issued at $0.9277 on 21 December. ARV trading now at $1.07 on 28 December. Must be one of the best Reinvestment Plan allocations ever for holders in terms of % benefit over a one week period.

[trader_jackson]

DRIP shares issued at $0.9277 on 21 December. ARV trading now at $1.07 on 28 December. Must be one of the best Reinvestment Plan allocations ever for holders in terms of % benefit over a one week period.

Share price was far far too low, now its just far too low - heading in the right direction at least - shouldn't take much to get it back into the $1.20's - afterall, the takeover offer was at $1.70 so even $1.20 is a steal, especially if they came back to the party and offered around the $1.50 mark

[winner69]

Share price was far far too low, now its just far too low - heading in the right direction at least - shouldn't take much to get it back into the $1.20's - afterall, the takeover offer was at $1.70 so even $1.20 is a steal, especially if they came back to the party and offered around the $1.50 mark

Remember our ‘bet’ trader …will ARV or HGH get to 150 first

Race could be on again

[Bjauck]

Share price was far far too low, now its just far too low - heading in the right direction at least - shouldn't take much to get it back into the $1.20's - afterall, the takeover offer was at $1.70 so even $1.20 is a steal, especially if they came back to the party and offered around the $1.50 mark

But being the NZ regulated Share market, they won’t tell retail shareholders about an offer until the gossip is near universal. If there is another offer, it will just be gossip among the high, mighty and insiders. When the offer comes in at $1.10 they will then perhaps disclose it more quickly to retail shareholders - perhaps.

[trader_jackson]

Remember our ‘bet’ trader …will ARV or HGH get to 150 first

Race could be on again

HGH got there first this time it would seem, it did have a bit of a head start tho

[Nigelk]

Merging 19 privately owned retirement villages into a single publicly owned company should prove challenging.19 different computer systems,19 different resident's contracts,19 different payrolls,19 different sets of standards,and 19 different sets of owners.Very challenging!!!
I think it shows that stand alone retirement villages can not compete with the likes of MET,RYM,and SUM.Compliance and other costs are now too high for them.
Yes more choice for the investor, having more listed retirement sector companies to chose from,but the fact remains the demand is,and will continue to be greater than supply.
I think the Ben Hurst referred to in the article is a member of The Hurst Pratley Group, who own a number of very good villages.

If they do it properly, that's where the greatest short-term value can be derived. Moving from the multiples they pay for private co's to those derived for listed co's. Plus including the economies of scale that can be achieved from a consolidated operation has huge potential over a couple of years. It all comes down to faith..Can they deliver or not?

[trader_jackson]

Share price was far far too low, now its just far too low - heading in the right direction at least - shouldn't take much to get it back into the $1.20's - afterall, the takeover offer was at $1.70 so even $1.20 is a steal, especially if they came back to the party and offered around the $1.50 mark

Since posting this less than 2 weeks ago the share price is up over 10% ($1.08 to $1.21).

SUM's fairly positive announcement today appears to have benefited the entire sector, but particularly ARV with its share price up 5% today.

It appears that last month (when ARV was around the $1 mark), ARV truly was the most undervalued retirement stock on the NZX as in the past month ARV is up 29% in just a month vs OCA at 7%RYM at 10% and SUM at 17% - all healthy gains, but not remotely close to ARV's.

With an NTA of around $2, one would think even at $1.21, ARV is still cheap.

[WAIKEN]

I agree Trader. We are also up substantially from last years low of 0.90.
The board rejected a highly conditional bid of 1.70. This should have been a shareholder not a board decision.
I estimate the NTA could be 2.10-2.20 by year end. If replacement cost of land and buildings was used I see the NTA as well north of 3.00 by year end. Most economists are tipping interest rates to fall in 2024. Residential property prices are on the march again so RV clients will have more money to spend and will be selling properties more quickly.
I believe the mystery fund that bid 1.70 hasn't gone away and other players will also be circling. This reminds me of Metlife when it was selling for half of its NTA and I jumped in and doubled my money when the Swedish fund pounced. I also think other deeply discounted RVs like OCA will also be on the radar of the circling sharks.