ARV - Arvida Retirement Villages

[King1212]

I guess the company is being super conservative, don't want to forecast over then did not achieve the target. Just look at ASX:MGC, thier share got smashed! Just because they missed thier forecast....

[trader_jackson]

Hmm it was an interesting announcement, something that I would have thought they'd save for "the big day" (Wednesday 25 May) as 7% is good (more NTA backing etc etc) but not exactly something I would have thought an additional announcement was required for... then again with continuous disclosure rules, they might have felt the need to release it asap rather than take the risk of waiting 15 days, with company insiders already knowing this 'nice' bit of news... they are going to exceed IPO forecasts by a "substantial" margin (in my view...I mean this is what happens when you buy another profitable high quality retirement village that wasn't in IPO forecasts, they have also repeatedly stated that they will beat IPO forecasts)... what I will be interest in is comparing IPO EPS & DPS forecast to May 25 2016 EPS & DPS actual, and any further greenfield and brownfield development updates as I believe ARV is considering moving more into development

On a side note, we all know companies like to try and build up some sort of positive momentum (or warn the market of serious issues!) in the couple weeks leading up to results day... if SUM etc didn't do this kind of announcement, they'd be bound to do some other forecast or something.. or if there is absolutely no news, don't be expecting alot come results day (this is my informal analysis anyway)

[King1212]

Hmm it was an interesting announcement, something that I would have thought they'd save for "the big day" (Wednesday 25 May) as 7% is good (more NTA backing etc etc) but not exactly something I would have thought an additional announcement was required for... then again with continuous disclosure rules, they might have felt the need to release it asap rather than take the risk of waiting 15 days, with company insiders already knowing this 'nice' bit of news... they are going to exceed IPO forecasts by a "substantial" margin (in my view...I mean this is what happens when you buy another profitable high quality retirement village that wasn't in IPO forecasts, they have also repeatedly stated that they will beat IPO forecasts)... what I will be interest in is comparing IPO EPS & DPS forecast to May 25 2016 EPS & DPS actual, and any further greenfield and brownfield development updates as I believe ARV is considering moving more into development

On a side note, we all know companies like to try and build up some sort of positive momentum (or warn the market of serious issues!) in the couple weeks leading up to results day... if SUM etc didn't do this kind of announcement, they'd be bound to do some other forecast or something.. or if there is absolutely no news, don't be expecting alot come results day (this is my informal analysis anyway)

Good one TJ, look like Arvida is a good stock to keep for long term.

[winner69]

What on earth is going on here, Winner?

Hey oldguy - even t_j appears to be a bit bemused with whats going on.

Must be good though - marked Price Sensitive

[OldGuy]

haha, interesting. Never thought I'd hear t_j say anything bad about his dearly beloved...

[trader_jackson]

https://www.nzx.com/companies/ARV/announcements/282941

Great results, don't need to go into to much detail but actually I think I will (a bit).. did anyone else spot one particular hidden surprise that occurred today? (which was of course very good...Lansdowne Park acquisition, high quality by the looks of it with 98% occupancy and purchased under CBRE fair value and "immediately accretive to earnings")

150 units under development, 24 luxury ones already under construction... looks like ARV is turning more to development (which is what I have believed for a while now.. and according to 'everyone else' on the form this is where the 'real money' is, so looking forward to this, as will make profit numbers look even better due to expected increases in fair value gains)

I note there was a specific part in the presentation that mentioned greenfield developments... first time I think this has been done, I also note at the end it is mentioned "development activity to deliver continued momentum in revenue and earnings"... by now, I'm sure it is clear ARV is not just a "low margin" care bed operator anymore

Selling of escrow shares (which is expected to be very little, this was reaffirmed again) still doesn't appear to result in sustained downward pressure (I think)... could be done in a block trade, easy for me to see an institution come and vacuum these up.

Not expecting to much price action due to it having the 2nd best 52 week return (32.2% when including gross dividends), 2nd only to SUM with 36.26% (source NZX website)... then again going by the looks of Ryman (who also recently reported their results) and assuming ARV begins more development (as indicated) could be a bit more room to run yet!

Food for thought:
Arvida:
- Underlying profit of $15.8 million
- Net Profit After Tax of $24.0 million
- Net operating cash flows $24.2 million
- Market cap 0.3b

Ryman:
- Underlying profit of $158 million (10x ARV)
- Net Profit After Tax of $241.9 million (10x ARV)
- Net operating cash flows $312.5 million (13x ARV)
- Market cap: 5.8b (19x ARV)

Disclosure: hard not to hold!

[King1212]

https://www.nzx.com/companies/ARV/announcements/282941

Great results, don't need to go into to much detail ... did anyone else spot one particular hidden surprise that occurred today? (which was of course very good...)

They are looking other instos to buy in escrow shares??? I am so happy with the result..dividend increases to 1.10 cents. wowww

Forsyth Barr Limited, who has been appointed to

assist in the co-ordination and sale of any escrowed shares at the end of the

escrow period, has received indications of interest from a range of

institutional and retail investors in relation to the purchase of these

escrowed shares.

[winner69]

https://www.nzx.com/companies/ARV/announcements/282941

Great results, don't need to go into to much detail ... did anyone else spot one particular hidden surprise that occurred today? (which was of course very good...)

Increased dividend

Looks like they even made some money out of looking after people (non-property stuff)

I see $1.30 share price soon - might get there before Heartland t_j

Not for me though

[trader_jackson]

Increased dividend

Looks like they even made some money out of looking after people (non-property stuff)

I see $1.30 share price soon - might get there before Heartland t_j

Not for me though

Just updated my post above... $1.30? is that all?
(hope it turns into a race to see who can get there first!)

[winner69]

Just updated my post above... $1.30? is that all?
(hope it turns into a race to see who can get there first!)

I did say soon

But 2 bucks by Xmas as the re-rating evolves