ARV - Arvida Retirement Villages

[trader_jackson]

let's just say that I have consulted to this company and was not particularly impressed with what I discovered. Thanks

I am interested to see what you think of ARV's results posted today, particularly interested to see if you are not particularity impressed by them.

Thought I would also use this post to re look at sector PE's (as I have done this in the past):
- SUM: 11.9
- MET: 5.8
- RYM: 15.5
- ARV: 12.1

I am also pleased to say, on the whole, it is above Forsyth's Estimates.

(I also added to my post above #166)

[King1212]

I am interested to see what you think of ARV's results posted today, particularly interested to see if you are not particularity impressed by them.

Thought I would also use this post to re look at sector PE's (as I have done this in the past):
- SUM: 11.9
- MET: 5.8
- RYM: 15.5
- ARV: 12.1

I am also pleased to say, on the whole, it is above Forsyth's Estimates.

(I also added to my post above #166)

Looking good TJ...happy with escrow decision, intos will suck it easily without impacting the share price heavily....

[Lewylewylewy]

What new development are ARV undertaking?

[winner69]

t_j ARV closing in on HBL

Odds on now it will HBL to 130 ....and it will always be ahead of HBL

Have considered getting of the loser/slow plodding hack and doubling up on the winner/throughbred?

Whatever - good on you for keeping the faith and staying loyal.

Newguy banned so you won't be hearing from him

[trader_jackson]

https://www.nzx.com/companies/ARV/announcements/282941
Not expecting to much price action due to it having the 2nd best 52 week return (32.2% when including gross dividends), 2nd only to SUM with 36.26% (source NZX website)... then again going by the looks of Ryman (who also recently reported their results) and assuming ARV begins more development (as indicated) could be a bit more room to run yet!

How wrong I was! Share price at $1.18, with several trades at $1.20... winner69: the 're-rating' of ARV seems to have begun...! ARV now the best performer over the past year? Who would have thought eh!

Lewylewylewy, please see the below: (and for more information, see: https://www.nzx.com/companies/ARV/announcements/282941)

Arvida has an active brownfield development programme with potential to enhance earnings from existing facilities and provide attractive returns on capital invested. Returns from developments continue to grow as they mature and reach normal levels of activity. Development capabilities have been deepened in order to position the company to execute the opportunities ahead.
Brownfield development activity in progress includes 150 retirement units and 37 care beds in the planning and consenting phase. Auckland City Council has recently approved the resource consent for the construction of 24 luxury apartments at Aria Bay. The village is very well located, with an excellent reputation in its local community and these new apartments will provide local residents with a quality retirement offering.
In addition, there are an estimated additional 100+ beds/units within existing villages that are yet to be assessed.

Also from NBR today:
“We have considerable brownfield opportunities within the existing portfolio that we’ve been working hard on, and over time as we deal with in-house capabilities and brownfield opportunities we would move toward more greenfield opportunities.”

[trader_jackson]

Update: Forsyth hikes 12 month price target to $1.30...

Noting:
- Increased confidence in development (particularly mentioning: how it has increased its internal development capability, adding four new roles and boosting the team to five people: 2 new roles in Auckland (development manager and project manager) + 2 new roles in Christchurch (development manager and project manager), which will help the company to execute on upcoming development opportunities (particularly 150 planned units... so far).

- Growth in all revenue streams – growth in all areas

- Another acquisition (of high quality)

[King1212]

Update: Forsyth hikes 12 month price target to $1.30...

Noting:
- Increased confidence in development (particularly mentioning: how it has increased its internal development capability, adding four new roles and boosting the team to five people: 2 new roles in Auckland (development manager and project manager) + 2 new roles in Christchurch (development manager and project manager), which will help the company to execute on upcoming development opportunities (particularly 150 planned units... so far).


- Growth in all revenue streams – growth in all areas

- Another acquisition (of high quality)

Good one TJ!!!THanks for the info!

[trader_jackson]

Underpriced? PE at current price is 71.2 compared to MET at 5.3 and Sum at 11.5

Lewylewylewy, couta1, and Left field as you all kindly pointed out to me less than 2 months ago that my PE's were wildly wrong and inaccurate, please kindly take note of the PE now being listed as 12.82 (on nzx.com), well down from the apparent 71.2 just over 1 month earlier...
(also take note that the share price has rallied almost 10% in the past 2 days so the PE would have been even lower just a short time ago)

As I've said before, sometimes looking at a headline figure, such as the PE on the nzx.com, with seemingly no research beyond this headline figure, and then comparing it to companies that have been listed for many years, can be very very deceiving & misleading and result in lost opportunities

It is good to see Mr Market is no longer writing off ARV's potential (as much)

Have a good evening

[King1212]

Lewylewylewy, couta1, and Left field as you all kindly pointed out to me less than 2 months ago that my PE's were wildly wrong and inaccurate, please kindly take note of the PE now being listed as 12.82 (on nzx.com), well down from the apparent 71.2 just over 1 month earlier...
(also take note that the share price has rallied almost 10% in the past 2 days so the PE would have been even lower just a short time ago)

As I've said before, sometimes looking at a headline figure, such as the PE on the nzx.com, with seemingly no research beyond this headline figure, and then comparing it to companies that have been listed for many years, can be very very deceiving & misleading and result in lost opportunities

It is good to see Mr Market is no longer writing off ARV's potential (as much)

Have a good evening

Thanks for for the email TJ. The report is very informative. Will keep Arvida for long term!

[Hectorplains]

Lewylewylewy, couta1, and Left field as you all kindly pointed out to me less than 2 months ago that my PE's were wildly wrong and inaccurate, please kindly take note of the PE now being listed as 12.82 (on nzx.com), well down from the apparent 71.2 just over 1 month earlier...
(also take note that the share price has rallied almost 10% in the past 2 days so the PE would have been even lower just a short time ago)

Hey T-J

Is there detail of further 'brownfield" development beyond the 150 unit / 40 odd care bed's? I must admit I'd written this stock off and invested in IFT as a better cover for the sector. Happy to look again.

Cheers

Hec