ARV - Arvida Retirement Villages

[noodles]

Don't get too excited TJ these are pure care facilities, you can't compare this company to Ryman and Summerset, no where near the same potential at this point.

You are correct that you can't compare. But is growth by eps acretive acquisition better or worse than growth by development?

I don't know the answer in this case.

[couta1]

You are correct that you can't compare. But is growth by eps acretive acquisition better or worse than growth by development?

I don't know the answer in this case.

Growth by development is far better due to higher overall profit margins and ongoing resale profits.

[couta1]

Exactly. Care and dementia facilities aren't significant money makers compared to ILUs. This is one of the reasons that Summerset's continuum of care is not as exhaustive as some competitors.

Nice dig there at the end NG

[trader_jackson]

Well there are development potential, and serviced apartments, but yes not quite the thousands of Ryman and Summerset, but still, I think the market is treating Arvida like a dog despite them beating most forecasts and made (what I believe) is a very, very good purchase.

If anything, it shows that management have the ability to identify quality opportunities and negotiate a good deal (8.4x seems dam cheap vs 18x average P/E on NZX 50...)

But yes, like all the 'bigger boys', Arvida is new to the block and as the share price shows, extreme caution has clearly been exercised

[couta1]

Thanks. Glad to see you don't actually disagree!

I agree that Sum have smaller care centres than Ryman because thats a known fact but then Ryman have much bigger villages with lots more units to sell aye

[Master98]

just read through IPO prospects, all market updates until recent acquisition of three auckland villages, I do feel this is a promising company with steadily income and a defensive share compare to peers which heavily rely on new development,at 84c i have to say it's not just cheap, it is very cheaper, not expect the share price will boost in short term because escrow will not expire until May 30 2016, but not bother me as i intend to hold longer term, at least the dividend return still a little better than earning interest, do notice someone feeding duck at 84c thats why methinks this puppy could be manipulated, the sp suddenly drop from middle 90s to 85c just before the acquisition announced which new shares issued at 84c.

[trader_jackson]

I have said this for a while, but people are blinded by SUM (and others) and how great the resales etc are... yet ARV is actually much more attractive from a traditional point of view (Forward PE ratio, dividend yield)... ARV are a "new" company, and despite management delivering very good outcomes so far (eg successful village integration and acquisition of a couple of very very high quality villages, as original hinted to in the prospectus and various market updates), people are already writing it off, such as the assumption that they will always be stuck in what is apparently a seemingly extremely low-margin and outdated care based portfolio (even though this is only part of their business)

I would even be tempted to say the ARV will be the best performing retirement stocks on the NZX over the coming year.

[Joshuatree]

So on to it TJ hats off

13/7/15

I have said this for a while, but people are blinded by SUM (and others) and how great the resales etc are... yet ARV is actually much more attractive from a traditional point of view (Forward PE ratio, dividend yield)... ARV are a "new" company, and despite management delivering very good outcomes so far (eg successful village integration and acquisition of a couple of very very high quality villages, as original hinted to in the prospectus and various market updates), people are already writing it off, such as the assumption that they will always be stuck in what is apparently a seemingly extremely low-margin and outdated care based portfolio (even though this is only part of their business)

I would even be tempted to say the ARV will be the best performing retirement stocks on the NZX over the coming year.

[peat]

Given the revaluations on their books are ensuring NTA is close to market value of the assets ARV is the 2nd best based on buying cheapest assets . But yes being smaller means more growth potential.

Price:NTA

MET 1st @ 1:1

ARV 2nd 1.25:1

SUM 3rd 3(ish):1

RYM 4th 4:1

[percy]

I would recommend you read the link Winner69 posted on Ryman thread.Post 2411.
RYM and SUM [I don't follow MET] do not need to raise capital to grow,while ARV do.
Work out why they don't need to raise capital.