ARV - Arvida Retirement Villages

[dabsman]

Just nothing on the sell side for ARV... everyone waiting for the rights?

[trader_jackson]

Looks like the cheap shares (40m of them) were issued today, will be interesting to see how much the share price goes, I reckon if it can hold in the mid $1.30's that would be pretty good... sure is amazing how much the return changes if one took part in all the rights issues (and that cheap SPP to acquire the Aria villages way back when) along the way, suddenly sum other retirement operates actually underperform ARV... (sum say ARV may even be 1st ranked in the past 4.5 years since ARV has listed)

On another note, Forsyth downgraded SUM price target by 10% today to $6.60 (still way above current share price I suppose), FY19 earnings downgraded 8%, FY20 downgraded 11% and FY21 downgraded 14%... they clearly have started to see the writing on the wall and realize the market simply wasn't buying their previous $7.35 price target... l as I've said before, while sum companies are increasing build rates, margins, and earnings throughout the cycle, sum others are really struggling... sum say this is because those companies were too focused on short term profits (build more and more and more!) rather than focusing on building culture and continuum of care capabilities.

[trader_jackson]

This is quite astounding, despite 40 million shares coming on market today, virtually nobody is selling (next seller is $1.40) - in fact share price back at all time highs... this acquisition really must be amazing!

Maybe I have it wrong and the shares aren't tradable till next week or something?

[dabsman]

This is quite astounding, despite 40 million shares coming on market today, virtually nobody is selling (next seller is $1.40) - in fact share price back at all time highs... this acquisition really must be amazing!

Maybe I have it wrong and the shares aren't tradable till next week or something?

Just no depth sell side yesterday too

[777]

Why should they come on the market?

[trader_jackson]

Why should they come on the market?

You mean why should people sell? Because they could make a near instant 11.2%? Of course, I suppose most people who brought the 40m shares can see ARV's long term value is higher than $1.39 ARV is currently trading at (a record high by the way), but if they wanted, they could have brought on Monday, sold on Friday and made 11.2%.

[777]

The 40m shares were issued as part payment to the sellers of the villages they bought. Why would they want to put them on the market the day they get them? They are more likely to be long term holders.

[trader_jackson]

The 40m shares were issued as part payment to the sellers of the villages they bought. Why would they want to put them on the market the day they get them? They are more likely to be long term holders.

No these weren't issued to the sellers... these were issued to shareholders via placement to help fund the purchase... therefore these were issued to shareholders (new and existing and Forsyth still have a few left over)... they could have sold out at 11.2% gain in less than 5 days if they wanted...
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/336603

[777]

Sorry but I disagree. I stand by my post 761.

[trader_jackson]

Sorry but I disagree. I stand by my post 761.

Okay... but um it isn't something you can 'disagree with' mate... it is a fact as per NZX announcement I linked above and Forsyth disclosure... I even discussed with Forsyth about buying some... these 40m placement shares at $1.25 were not issued to the sellers of the village. Call up forsyth and feel free to ask if you don't believe me... hence why I'm surprised we haven't seen anybody wanting to make a quick buck sell out for 11.2% gain in less than 5 days.