ARV - Arvida Retirement Villages

[LAC]

Must admit never looked at ARV before mainly because I was stocking up on another but recently it’s shot up hence I have stopped accumulating. Looked as just the last 3 annual reports and I must admit it is looking good of recent, really good. Need to do more research and understand more but on the surface it’s looking pretty good value atm. Only looked at the numbers and nothing else. Debt is something I need to investigate a little more as well.

[Beagle]

What would be good is for the resident "enthusiast" t.j. to actually crunch the numbers and post the underlying eps every year since it listed then we can see its true performance, (not the headline performance growth they gain by issuing heaps of new shares almost every year).

The last time I looked at this it was growing underlying eps in the late single digits each year, on average. (I'll let others decide if that's impressive for this sector).

Disc: Don't hold.

[percy]

Must admit never looked at ARV before mainly because I was stocking up on another but recently it’s shot up hence I have stopped accumulating. Looked as just the last 3 annual reports and I must admit it is looking good of recent, really good. Need to do more research and understand more but on the surface it’s looking pretty good value atm. Only looked at the numbers and nothing else. Debt is something I need to investigate a little more as well.

Well you can attain first hand knowledge this weekend.From this morning's Arvida's Park Lane The Press insert.
"Come and enjoy a complimentary glass of bubbles and BBQ lunch.Take a stroll through our beautiful gardens and experience what makes Park Lane stand out from the rest."
Sat 15 & Sun 16 February 11am-3pm.

[trader_jackson]

What would be good is for the resident "enthusiast" t.j. to actually crunch the numbers and post the underlying eps every year since it listed then we can see its true performance, (not the headline performance growth they gain by issuing heaps of new shares almost every year).

The last time I looked at this it was growing underlying eps in the late single digits each year, on average. (I'll let others decide if that's impressive for this sector).

Disc: Don't hold.

2016 Underlying profit per share (cents) was 6.05 and in 2019 underlying profit per share (cents) was 9.33... Isn't this a compound annual growth rate of 11.5% ish? If my numbers are right, I'd say this is a decent chunk higher than "late single digits" you talk off... and growth is only accelerating, not decelerating dramatically like sum others (in fact going backwards by some measurements, eg NPAT)

Underlying profit per share (cents) is forecast to be up 16% in 2020... that might possibly be the fastest in the entire listed sector, and miles in front of "late single digits"

And for NPAT compound annual growth rate from FY16 to FY19 is nearly 13%... 50% ish higher than "late single digits"

I'd recommend people look at page 40 of the 2019 Annual Report, that will give you the underlying EPS one may desire, along with many other key metrics, all in one place.

DYOR folks around ARV, as LAC is possibly realizing, it is amazing what you might find.
And at least by posting on this thread, I won't be told off for posting relating to ARV

[trader_jackson]

Looks like Forsyth read my post and they decided to do a bit more research... 12 month target price now $2.03 (up from $1.78).

[peat]

2016 Underlying profit per share (cents) was 6.05 and in 2019 underlying profit per share (cents) was 9.33... Isn't this a compound annual growth rate of 11.5% ish? If my numbers are right, I'd say this is a decent chunk higher than "late single digits" you talk off... and growth is only accelerating, not decelerating dramatically like sum others (in fact going backwards by some measurements, eg NPAT)

Underlying profit per share (cents) is forecast to be up 16% in 2020... that might possibly be the fastest in the entire listed sector, and miles in front of "late single digits"

And for NPAT compound annual growth rate from FY16 to FY19 is nearly 13%... 50% ish higher than "late single digits"

I'd recommend people look at page 40 of the 2019 Annual Report, that will give you the underlying EPS one may desire, along with many other key metrics, all in one place.

DYOR folks around ARV, as LAC is possibly realizing, it is amazing what you might find.
And at least by posting on this thread, I won't be told off for posting relating to ARV

Here are the figures TJ wanted us to see

Attachment 11019

My comments would be that all of the EPS growth was from 2016 and hasn't been that strong over the last few years and would appear to be stalling. Without another great spurt this next year the CGR is going to start slowing down big time

[Beagle]

2016 Underlying profit per share (cents) was 6.05 and in 2019 underlying profit per share (cents) was 9.33... Isn't this a compound annual growth rate of 11.5% ish? If my numbers are right, I'd say this is a decent chunk higher than "late single digits" you talk off... and growth is only accelerating, not decelerating dramatically like sum others (in fact going backwards by some measurements, eg NPAT)

Underlying profit per share (cents) is forecast to be up 16% in 2020... that might possibly be the fastest in the entire listed sector, and miles in front of "late single digits"

And for NPAT compound annual growth rate from FY16 to FY19 is nearly 13%... 50% ish higher than "late single digits"

I'd recommend people look at page 40 of the 2019 Annual Report, that will give you the underlying EPS one may desire, along with many other key metrics, all in one place.

DYOR folks around ARV, as LAC is possibly realizing, it is amazing what you might find.
And at least by posting on this thread, I won't be told off for posting relating to ARV

Underlying eps growth was 4.8% (20.7%) last year. Average underlying eps growth rate for the last 2 years (small apology I was a little but out) was just a fraction over 10%, (32%)

I've done the comparative calculations for you for SUM other company

Rob Campbell appears to take quite a bit of delight in welcoming shareholders to the annual meeting of N.Z's "fastest growing" retirement company...every year he says words to that effect,... and you know what, he isn't kidding

But you can take some heart, average underlying eps growth over the last 4 years has been 16%, faster than RYM, (much slower than SUM's 37% though) but slightly better than MET at 15% and the forward PE if we are to believe 16% forecast underlying eps growth this year is 187 / 10.82 = 17.3 which seems fair and reasonable.
Presently ARV shares look about fair value to me. Reading through their 2019 annual report they seem to be making a pretty good go of things and it seems like a pretty good company to me. MET is as good as gone, RYM heinously overpriced, OCA has major transitional issues so that leaves ARV which I suppose has to come under serious consideration now that the sector participants are about to be diminished.

Bottom line is a lot of cash will be released from the MET takeover and ARV will be a beneficiary of some of that so this could have legs this year up towards Forbar's new price target (assuming the market doesn't get an absolute beating from virus issues).

[trader_jackson]

Underlying eps growth was 4.8% (20.7%) last year. Average underlying eps growth rate for the last 2 years (small apology I was a little but out) was just a fraction over 10%, (32%)

I've done the comparative calculations for you for SUM other company

Rob Campbell appears to take quite a bit of delight in welcoming shareholders to the annual meeting of N.Z's fastest growing retirement company...every year he says words to that effect,... and you know what, he isn't kidding

But you can take some heart, average growth over the last 4 years has been 16%, faster than RYM, (much slower than SUM's 37% though but slightly better than MET at 15% and the forward PE if we are to believe 16% forecast underlying eps growth this year is 187 / 10.82 = 17.3.
Presently ARV shares look about fair value to me.

While we're talking about ARV and SUM comparisons... Could you mention SUM's NPAT EPS over the past 2 years? I would be interested to compare those growth rates... some say NPAT is the number that really matters (Not sure I say that, but some say that)

[Beagle]

Not getting into others theories but I have noted that ARV's embedded value per unit has been going up very nicely over the years which is a useful indicator of future underlying earnings growth.
It all looks okay to me. I might even join you on the share register at some stage I can't have all my eggs in the SUM basket no matter how much better it looks

I'd buy 9 of these in a heartbeat instead of paying $17 for a RYM share, that's for sure !!!!

[Beagle]

The resident snow cat must be pleased he got out at close to $2. Bit like my Houdini act on SUM ~ $9.