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  1. #771
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    1.40, wow a record high (again), in fact ARV is now bigger than OCA ($637m vs $629m - gonna be even bigger after the full cap raise is complete)

    As it stands now, since ARV listed, they have returned about 14.5% pa while SUM has returned 17.7% pa and OCA is somewhere in between - the famed RYM is like 9% or something (average since December 2014 - assuming you take full part in the rights issues along the way like I have, and took no part in the SPP of 2015)... after this rights issue (assuming share price of $1.40 holds and SUM still sits at $5.50 - both big if's I know), ARV's annual return since December 2014 jumps to 16.0%... just a mere % and a bit of the famed market leader... suddenly that is very close and ARV is still a loser, but not by much!

    Anyhow, the past is the past, and I don't think sharesight is wrong... just an interesting thought for those that get carried away with strong performance years ago... one thing is for sure, past performance does not determine future performance, as sum companies have shown
    Last edited by trader_jackson; 01-07-2019 at 06:58 PM.

  2. #772
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    http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...244/303109.pdf

    Quite the contrast ARV has to sum other companies... while sum Chair speeches like to almost immediately jump into how much profits have increased and how great things are for shareholders, ARV chair talks about culture, core values and principles of arvida group... in fact the profit stuff isn't mentioned till (nearly) the 2nd page...

    Exciting times with the cap raise underway... even I'm a tad surprised how high the share price remains, but then again they are great villages (and growth and synergies) that they are buying...

    Oh and Another facility with the gold standard, sum other companies don't talk much about their facilities... (and yet what people miss is that the care side of things is actually a key reason to move into all the big independent living units in the first place!)

    And for sum of those 'living in the past', don't look at the last slide
    Last edited by trader_jackson; 05-07-2019 at 09:50 AM.

  3. #773
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    I was expecting at least a 5c drop today going ex rights. Am I missing something here? I'm happy of course but quite surprised still

  4. #774
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    Quote Originally Posted by dabsman View Post
    I was expecting at least a 5c drop today going ex rights. Am I missing something here? I'm happy of course but quite surprised still
    (it actually went ex rights towards the start of this week... and yes, I'm surprised it has held up so well!)

  5. #775
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    Quote Originally Posted by trader_jackson View Post
    http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...244/303109.pdf
    ...

    And for sum of those 'living in the past', don't look at the last slide
    Well, every dog has its day - and Arvida nearly managed to catch up with sum of the more successful companies, didn't they?

    I am wondering though, why they didn't show the two and three year comparisons? Could anybody think about a reason for that?
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  6. #776
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    Quote Originally Posted by BlackPeter View Post
    Well, every dog has its day - and Arvida nearly managed to catch up with sum of the more successful companies, didn't they?

    I am wondering though, why they didn't show the two and three year comparisons? Could anybody think about a reason for that?
    Actually, they have done it a couple times (in different ways I suppose you could argue) in AGM's and annual reports... you should have a read over them.

    And every dog has its day? I don't know if you saw my post above, but ARV is just a touch off beating Total shareholder return of sum others (since ARV's listing, assuming one took part in the rights issues)... that means ARV is just a touch behind having a higher annual return, year after year (since ARV's listing) than sum others (not a one off quick pop)

  7. #777
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    Quote Originally Posted by BlackPeter View Post
    Well, every dog has its day - and Arvida nearly managed to catch up with sum of the more successful companies, didn't they?

    I am wondering though, why they didn't show the two and three year comparisons? Could anybody think about a reason for that?
    Have to say BlackPeter, I've done very nicely out of ARV (helped by a few 'ups and downs' that i took advantage of). I recall that in last year's report (might be 2 yrs ago?), they showed the comparison with the NZX 50 - that looked pretty good! My rationale for ARV has always been that they're helped long-term by the higher %age revenue derived from their care business. I know its not sexy, and is perceived as low margin...but as things get tougher in property markets, its a nice natural hedge against that. Anyway, suffice to say i have taken up rights and applied for more.

  8. #778
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    Quote Originally Posted by trader_jackson View Post
    Actually, they have done it a couple times (in different ways I suppose you could argue) in AGM's and annual reports... you should have a read over them.

    And every dog has its day? I don't know if you saw my post above, but ARV is just a touch off beating Total shareholder return of sum others (since ARV's listing, assuming one took part in the rights issues)... that means ARV is just a touch behind having a higher annual return, year after year (since ARV's listing) than sum others (not a one off quick pop)
    Well, yes - but a touch off is still a touch off - isn't it?

    But hey, given that you are riding this horse for ages ... I am glad for you it is working out at the moment - the long times of Arvida lagging ways behind the others must have been frustrating for you.

    What the future might bring? Who knows ... but overall I would suspect that all retirement home providers will do reasonably well over time. What I didn't like about Arvida was the way they started (both the stock as well as the marketing campaign ...), but apart from that, they well might move into the right direction (as the SP seems to suggest).

    From a personal perspective - I am reasonably exposed to the sector but saw so far no reason to buy them as well. But sure - they did over the last 12 or 15 months better than some other retirement stock. Does this mean they will keep doing better? I don't know. Do you?
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  9. #779
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    Quote Originally Posted by BlackPeter View Post
    Well, yes - but a touch off is still a touch off - isn't it?

    But hey, given that you are riding this horse for ages ... I am glad for you it is working out at the moment - the long times of Arvida lagging ways behind the others must have been frustrating for you.

    What the future might bring? Who knows ... but overall I would suspect that all retirement home providers will do reasonably well over time. What I didn't like about Arvida was the way they started (both the stock as well as the marketing campaign ...), but apart from that, they well might move into the right direction (as the SP seems to suggest).

    From a personal perspective - I am reasonably exposed to the sector but saw so far no reason to buy them as well. But sure - they did over the last 12 or 15 months better than some other retirement stock. Does this mean they will keep doing better? I don't know. Do you?
    Of course not, as past performance is not an indicator of future performance... But what I do believe is that ARV's business model is better positioned than sum others to cater not just for increasing demand, but also for the various different types of that increasing demand, eg people requiring not just an independent living unit but actually a village that caters for the whole continuum of care (rather than one buying an ILU then wondering where to go when they need care because, for example, sum villages have hundreds of ILU's with very few, if any, relative care options available),
    Last edited by trader_jackson; 05-07-2019 at 11:09 AM.

  10. #780
    always learning ... BlackPeter's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by trader_jackson View Post
    Of course not, as past performance is not an indicator of future performance... But what I do believe is that ARV's business model is better positioned than sum others to cater not just for increasing demand, but also for the various different types of that increasing demand, eg people requiring not just an independent living unit (and then wondering where to go when they need care because sum villages have hundreds of ILU's with very few, if any, relative care beds etc available), but actually a village that caters for the whole continuum of care.
    Sounds like OCA to me ;
    ----
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