ARV - Arvida Retirement Villages

[Beagle]

With over 14m shares traded, and a VWAP of $1.68, it was both the largest daily volume and largest daily value of ARV shares traded ever (in its near 6 years being listed)... 2.6% of the company changed hands on Friday... take over offer coming? If so, I'd probably accept $2.50 or so.

LOL T.J...nice try
NZX50 index rebalancing took place on Friday and I believe ARV was added to the Footsie small company index in the U.K which would have probably accounted for most of the unusually high volume. Normal service will resume tomorrow after a weak lead in from Wall St at close on Friday.

[Snow Leopard]

The relentless rise in share price continues relentlessly.

[Snow Leopard]

The relentless rise in share price continues relentlessly.

Music to watch the rising trend to:

[winner69]

2 bucks beckons

Results in a couple of weeks .... probably go over 2 bucks then

[flyinglizard]

2 bucks beckons

Results in a couple of weeks .... probably go over 2 bucks then

ARV has so many good cards in hands.

- Dual listed in ASX to get more money, then to acquire a big player in NZ retirement market.
- issue of new bond at historical low rate to acquire more medium and small players.

ARV really needs someone has investment bank background in board (Refer to OCA CFO).

If the underlying CAGR runs over 50% for 3-5 years, the share price would be higher than SUM and RYM.

PPH has the similar growth business model.

[Beau]

2 bucks beckons

Results in a couple of weeks .... probably go over 2 bucks then

Do you still think 2 bucks possible tomorrow ?

[Maverick]

Do you still think 2 bucks possible tomorrow ?

I'm picking a result of around 20m underlying Beau.
I dont follow ARV in great detail but back of envelope stuff is last years profit less 15 % for the written off lockdown L4 sales ( the following slow month is more than compensated for the " catch up "months of sales ) then finally less about $4m of net covid costs.
If they do better than $20m underlying I will be surprised and impressed. But even s little under that will still be a solid result.
I doubt it will see $2 today but we will know very shortly.

[winner69]

I'm picking a result of around 20m underlying Beau.
I dont follow ARV in great detail but back of envelope stuff is last years profit less 15 % for the written off lockdown L4 sales ( the following slow month is more than compensated for the " catch up "months of sales ) then finally less about $4m of net covid costs.
If they do better than $20m underlying I will be surprised and impressed. But even s little under that will still be a solid result.
I doubt it will see $2 today but we will know very shortly.

Spot on Mav - hope your OCA forecast is just as good

Underlying profit $20.5m pretty good

Could be a bit of a relief 'rally' today (for those expecting the worst) and shareprice over $2 Christmas / New Year

[Beau]

I'm picking a result of around 20m underlying Beau.
I dont follow ARV in great detail but back of envelope stuff is last years profit less 15 % for the written off lockdown L4 sales ( the following slow month is more than compensated for the " catch up "months of sales ) then finally less about $4m of net covid costs.
If they do better than $20m underlying I will be surprised and impressed. But even s little under that will still be a solid result.
I doubt it will see $2 today but we will know very shortly.

Yes thanks Maverick you’re back of the envelope workings were very precise. I’m sure you will be the same for Oceania.

[winner69]

Hope nobody notices the Underlying Profit per share number - went backwards at a fast rate -down from 5.0 cents pcp to 3.8 cents or 24%

That'swhat happens with big capital raises to buy things...will become 'EPS accretive' in time

Pretty meaningless anyway ...except for those who are in love with underlying earnings