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  1. #661
    Turn and burn Maverick's Avatar
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    TJ, your ARV has distinguished itself as barely falling amongst the fairly heavy drops in the retirement sector. I guess being off the shopping list on the way up has saved it when the tide turned.

  2. #662
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    Crazy really to think winner talking about this $1.25 stuff, but already back at $1.30 WITH one of those juicy quarterly dividends paid as well

  3. #663
    An Awesome Cool Cat winner69's Avatar
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    Big smash at Village at the Park

    Hopefully all involved will be OK .....and the building gets fixed up soon.

    http://wellington.scoop.co.nz/?p=115445
    “In a roaring bull market, knowledge is superfluous and experience is a handicap.”

    –Benjamin Graham”

  4. #664
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    Big smash at Village at the Park
    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post

    Hopefully all involved will be OK .....and the building gets fixed up soon.
    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post


    And the great team at Arvida will no doubt be supporting everyone, as they always do.

    In other news, share price just a cent off the all time high acheived for just 1 day over a year and a half ago $1.37). $1.36 is a fresh 52 week high. ARV up 4.7% for the year so far (even better than that other dog everyone picked in the competition and can't stop talking about)
    Last edited by trader_jackson; 11-01-2019 at 04:09 PM.

  5. #665
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    Quote Originally Posted by trader_jackson View Post


    And the great team at Arvida will no doubt be supporting everyone, as they always do.

    In other news, share price just a cent off the all time high acheived for just 1 day over a year and a half ago $1.37). $1.36 is a fresh 52 week high. ARV up 4.7% for the year so far (even better than that other dog everyone picked in the competition and can't stop talking about)
    Yep, ARV a real star of the NZX the last few days.
    “In a roaring bull market, knowledge is superfluous and experience is a handicap.”

    –Benjamin Graham”

  6. #666
    An Awesome Cool Cat winner69's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by trader_jackson View Post

    ARV up 4.7% for the year so far (even better than that other dog everyone picked in the competition and can't stop talking about)]
    Why did you take that other dog people can’t stop talking about and not ARV in the comp.
    “In a roaring bull market, knowledge is superfluous and experience is a handicap.”

    –Benjamin Graham”

  7. #667
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    6

    Why did you take that other dog people can’t stop talking about and not ARV in the comp.
    I can't recall actually! Must have made some sort of mistake, maybe

  8. #668
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    Touching all time highs today... interesting how it has held up to the battering the market has had. And lovely dividends keep coming

  9. #669
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    Quote Originally Posted by trader_jackson View Post
    Thanks for sharing this and it is interesting what he says.

    Although it is true what he says regarding care units being substantially less profitable, ARV does have a substantial number of independent apartment units as well, so it is not solely care based, as the article would imply. It could also benefit from potential economics of scale and synergies of bring many villages together, therefore lowering costs per person in care, and improving the margin, although this is still not going to be anywhere near as profitable as license to occupy I realize.

    ARV is also actively looking for other high quality villages, that will increase EPS and dividends per share (like Aria villages did), which will also further boost economics of scale and synergies.

    From a more macro point of view, What people seem to be missing in the whole retirement sector, is that increasingly people are living longer (less turn over = less profit for the licence to occupy, and more people needing care as they get older - ie care beds). ARV is well placed to capitalize on this, having quite a few care beds, while other retirement villages could fail to meet these ambitious growth plans, some have even pointed out there could be a short-medium term oversupply of villas.

    Aside from this, old people are getting more tech savvy (accessing forums such as this) and realizing just how much money these big retirement villages are ripping them off by, this combined with a potential oversupply will force those who are heavily exposed to having to sell villas into potential discounting, or other benefits (for example buy a licence to occupy off SUM instead of MET as they offer a fixed fee for life - this has already happened and now pretty much all villages have this - lets hope inflation doesn't take off right?) Where are the discounts/benefits going to come from next? ARV doesn't have to worry about this potential intense competition and has a higher % occupancy, further increasing benefits.

    Anyway, this is a very 'big' look at the picture and ARV is a long term game for me, with short term benefits (ie the dividend). SUM may be the stay this year, but in a decades time potentially not so much. Ryman could be the only village I would consider selling ARV for (if it gets back down to a more fair value of around $6), as they will also continue to do well as I know they have a strong care focus.
    Posted December 2015 in response to the "highly experienced in the retirement sector" chris lee's comments (rubbishing ARV, like most others were at the time)... some things that have happened in just 3 short years:
    - The share price is over 50% higher
    - over 14 cents in dividends have been paid, taking total returns for nearly exactly 37 months since the post was made to over 66%
    - the importance of having a strong care focus is now being raved about on the OCA thread (even though, in reality, OCA and ARV are fairly similar - ie both with strong care focus) and sum others are trying, fairly desperately, to catchup
    - For 1 of those 3 years, ARV was the best performer (will this year be the 2nd year?)
    - ARV have acquired more high quality villages and successfully increased dividends and EPS
    - Sum other villages are now seeing villa/apartment inventory tick upward as well as a result of ambitious growth in building programmes, yet (seemingly) failure to actually sell them

    Anyhow, carry on.
    Last edited by trader_jackson; 15-01-2019 at 11:53 AM.

  10. #670
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    i picked this in the comp looking good needs to go above 1.35 to really start the next leg up though otherwise just range trading
    bull

  11. #671
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    Terribly boring stock this.

    Did not even comment on it in 2018.

    But new year, new resolution so:

    One of the few shares that I have not sold down or out of completely in the last few months.

    Will be back on thread in 2020
    om mani peme hum

  12. #672
    An Awesome Cool Cat winner69's Avatar
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    ARV not far off all time high again ...this time it’ll break through and head towards what Forbar reckon it’s worth

    That’s good
    “In a roaring bull market, knowledge is superfluous and experience is a handicap.”

    –Benjamin Graham”

  13. #673
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    Hi All, what are your thoughts on ARV's development margin of around 16%? It seems very low in comparison to their peers.

  14. #674
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    Quote Originally Posted by Newby View Post
    Hi All, what are your thoughts on ARV's development margin of around 16%? It seems very low in comparison to their peers.
    Welcome to the forum. My thoughts. Dovetails in quite nicely with their underlying eps growth of just 17% which is also very low in comparison with their peers.
    That said the market clearly likes their care based business model...my hope is that one day in the future the market will wake up and realise that OCA, (which is trading on significantly more compelling metrics) is also primarily a care based business.

  15. #675
    An Awesome Cool Cat winner69's Avatar
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    Arvida share price goes tumbling down today ....closes at 128

    No worries as last time I said tumbling it soon recovered
    “In a roaring bull market, knowledge is superfluous and experience is a handicap.”

    –Benjamin Graham”

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