ARV - Arvida Retirement Villages

**troyvdh** · 02-12-2016, 05:08 AM

SilverBack..this probably aint the right forum for this...I agree that these companies are largely a RE play.
However not many folk have predicted a "backwards" movement in RE.Over the past 100 or so years...RE (at least in CHCH) has averaged about 7% compounding.
In the past month or so..Ive been looking at retirement entites for my mother.Anywhere between 200K to say $400..gets something reasonable.Ok one looses 30% in the first 3 ? years.
Whats the ave price in NZ now..about 500K ?.
Its my belief that folk will still move into retirements homes...and that in all likelihood the "kids' will just get less....what ever the RE market does.Cheers

**Snow Leopard** · 02-12-2016, 04:41 PM

Doubled up today.

I am as retired as I want to be, NZX portfolio wise now.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

**trader_jackson** · 07-12-2016, 05:04 PM

Dividend? What fantastic dividend?

Share price unchanged, despite a juicy dividend (extremely juicy by 'retirement sector' standards) ex date today.

For comparative purposes: rest of the sector was down today, SUM (or some

) were smashed... but don't listen to me, my 'research' is, quote one member, "a joke"

**winner69** · 10-12-2016, 08:30 AM

T_j you a bit slack these days

ARV to be in the NZX50 before Christmas and you haven't told us yet

So I'll do it for you

I always find it ironic that many get added to the NZX50 not because of their own performance but because real losers have to drop out - like this time Orion and Tower

**trader_jackson** · 10-12-2016, 12:20 PM

You are quite right, I have been slack and although on the predictions 2017 thread I did say it would be an NZX 50 company, I forgot to mention it on here.

Crazy to think I did predict on 2 January 2016 that ARV would be an NZX 50 company (I'm sure some people, well one member at least, would have dismissed this as "a joke") but here we are, December 9 with the official announcement...

winner69 I note you were a bit slack

and forgot to put the link down... without a link some people might still think what I'm saying, about ARV in particular, is "a joke"
https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/249831.pdf

ARV has a market cap over 400m... meanwhile OHE (the billion dollar listing around 2 years ago), until Friday, was nearly $100m less valuable than ARV, then there is TWR which is barely a third of the size of ARV... some might say, ARV was "well positioned" to get into the NZX 50...

Looking forward to that nice dividend payment in 6 days time, that isn't peanuts..., and of course I'm sure ARV's 2017 performance will be intriguing (they will have a hard act to follow after producing a stunning, best in class, total shareholder return for the 2016 year)

**winner69** · 16-12-2016, 03:48 PM

Closing in on 130 again t_j - good eh

Be funny if HBL beat it to 130 again

**Joshuatree** · 22-12-2016, 09:21 AM

Arvida thrashing the the other big incumbents s/p wise. Re a cent away from a new high, the others; experiencing death cross twitches etc.Who would have thought!?. The efficiencies and synergies of bringing together this disparate bunch of retirement villages must have been executed extremely well.Other reasons?
Arvida On Track to Deliver Strong FY17 Result

**King1212** · 22-12-2016, 09:56 AM

Originally Posted by Joshuatree

Arvida thrashing the the other big incumbents s/p wise. Re a cent away from a new high, the others; experiencing death cross twitches etc.Who would have thought!?. The efficiencies and synergies of bringing together this disparate bunch of retirement villages must have been executed extremely well.Other reasons?
Arvida On Track to Deliver Strong FY17 Result

The secret Is organic growth..brownfield development..others just keep buying villages without expanding it...

**trader_jackson** · 22-12-2016, 02:22 PM

Originally Posted by Joshuatree

Arvida thrashing the the other big incumbents s/p wise. Re a cent away from a new high, the others; experiencing death cross twitches etc.Who would have thought!?. The efficiencies and synergies of bringing together this disparate bunch of retirement villages must have been executed extremely well.Other reasons?
Arvida On Track to Deliver Strong FY17 Result

"Who would have thought" - quite possibly the quote of the year when it comes to describing ARV...

A far cry from the days where the talk on this very thread was centred around all the accounting/integration issues, an exit plan for those all blacks, and how ARV was just a "low margin care bed" operator (despite what the prospects clearly outlined... that... plus brownfield and eventually greenfield development)

Some people (or should I say SUM?) might be surprised to see it produce best in sector returns this year, although for me some of this has been a 'catch up' to where it really should have been before. I believe there is still further room to run (Forsyth's recent re-rating would support this).. the exciting part, greenfield development, hasn't even begun and ARV is already on a tear!

What is surprising to me is that it looks like some people/users still refuse to call, compare and talk about ARV in the same space as the other (and incumbent) big 3, despite now being a $400m+ market cap NZX 50 company (coincidentally one of the predictions I made back on 2 or 3 Jan this year).

What has hurt the likes of RYM and SUM recently, in my view, has been the prospect the interest rates are almost certain to rise, and probably quite fast... (ARV has the 2nd lowest gearing apart from MET)... SUM particualrly is on a borrowing spree (which was smart when interest rates could only go lower, or stay very low), but turning into a small double edged sword now... ARV also has a fantastic continuum of care, something I have mentioned several times, something that insulates them (in my view) slightly from any slowdown in property. RYM also has a good continuum of care, but SUM and especially MET are not quite as 'well rounded' (a looming shortage of beds, and putting an ORA over those carebeds are two more recent factors that will help).

As always do your own research, (mine has been called "a joke" before)... I could only mentioned a few of the things I believe is seperating ARV from "the rest", at least for now... meanwhile I'll be only to happy to see steady growth (that isn't supported solely rampant borrowing), and a nice above-bank-term-deposit-rate dividend to top things off.