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  1. #511
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    Hey ill let you know how they treat their residents, hopefully in a month or so, have to say they have been pretty fair with the way they have treated us so far. But i guess there is the possibilty no one else wanted it.

  2. #512
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    Hope you guys getting in fast ....share price on fire already today’s

    Maybe $1.50 by end of week a tad pessimistic

    Boomer of a result tomorrow

    Don’t miss out
    “In a roaring bull market, knowledge is superfluous and experience is a handicap.”

    –Benjamin Graham”

  3. #513
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    Hope you guys getting in fast ....share price on fire already today’s

    Maybe $1.50 by end of week a tad pessimistic

    Boomer of a result tomorrow

    Don’t miss out
    Bit of extreme ramping there winner, the market can as you know be a strange beast.
    Last edited by couta1; 28-05-2018 at 09:34 AM.

  4. #514
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    The way this has been going one wonders if this isn't a leaky ship in terms of insider buying ?
    No butts, hold no mutts, (unless they're the furry variety).

  5. #515
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    The way this has been going one wonders if this isn't a leaky ship in terms of insider buying ?

    Never never beagle ...doesn’t happen in nz

    I did mention a numbers they will announce tomorrow ...hmm

    Big volume day wasntbit on Friday
    Last edited by winner69; 28-05-2018 at 09:38 AM.
    “In a roaring bull market, knowledge is superfluous and experience is a handicap.”

    –Benjamin Graham”

  6. #516
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    Quote Originally Posted by couta1 View Post
    Bit of extreme ramping there winner, the market can as you know be a strange beast.
    Couts, you saying buy the rumour sell the fact.....tj would be beside himself.
    Last edited by winner69; 30-05-2018 at 02:05 PM.
    “In a roaring bull market, knowledge is superfluous and experience is a handicap.”

    –Benjamin Graham”

  7. #517
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    I think this ship has sailed as far as I am concerned. Would have been good buying under $1.20 with the benefit of hindsight.
    No butts, hold no mutts, (unless they're the furry variety).

  8. #518
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    Rather large wall at 1.29 just appeared

  9. #519
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    Arvida seem to be rather obtuse with financial guidance ...seem more content on build rates etc

    All I can make out is when they made those acquisitions last year. They said they were happy with analyst ( 2 of them) forecasts of $28m underlying profit for f18 and the acquisitions would bring in $9m in F18....and mentioned further upside etc etc

    So bare minimum tomorrow is $37m. Completion rates and sales appear to be higher and then there’s the margins which must be pretty high seeing what’s happened to property prices since last valuation. That’s where the $45m to $50m word on street comes from

    Doubling underlying earnings is pretty good eh. Better than sum other companies

    Let’s say $45m ....that’s eps 11 cents ....say 14 cents in F19 and heck even $1.70 at a forward PE of 12 looks cheap as
    Last edited by winner69; 28-05-2018 at 10:42 AM.
    “In a roaring bull market, knowledge is superfluous and experience is a handicap.”

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  10. #520
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    https://www.stuff.co.nz/nelson-mail/...st-near-nelson

    good article on stuff today for those interested....

  11. #521
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    Great result, news of the (extra) special dividend must have leaked yesterday... underlying cps growth of 16% - that is better than ryman, but who cares ARV must still be a dog.

  12. #522
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    Quote Originally Posted by trader_jackson View Post
    Great result, news of the (extra) special dividend must have leaked yesterday... underlying cps growth of 16% - that is better than ryman, but who cares ARV must still be a dog.
    Thing is tj the underlying profit of $33m is LESS than the $37m they indicated when they made that acquisition and did a capital raise last year. Not good

    Is 40% odd more than last year so not too bad
    Last edited by winner69; 29-05-2018 at 08:20 AM.
    “In a roaring bull market, knowledge is superfluous and experience is a handicap.”

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  13. #523
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    Maybe I should not have been so bullish and excited the last few days ....word on the street wasn’t as reliable as usual

    But $1.50 share price still on cards by end of June
    “In a roaring bull market, knowledge is superfluous and experience is a handicap.”

    –Benjamin Graham”

  14. #524
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    A VERY long way short of the $45 - $50m underlying profit doubling from last year. Development margin only 19%. Can't be that good at doing their SUM's can they !
    Outlook comments about costs weighing on the sector...didn't sound all that optimistic did it !
    Yeah... NAH...better off sticking to SUM other company with a much longer track and well proven record of strong growth.

    Underlying profit up 43% odd but I'll leave others to work out the lower rate that applies to underlying EPS growth due to the significant share issue during the year.
    Last edited by Beagle; 29-05-2018 at 08:22 AM.
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  15. #525
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    I, and clearly Mr Market, didn't realize they indicated 37m, in fact the actual consensus was around the 30m mark I thought.

    $45-50m underlying would have been wonderful, but we'll have to wait another 9-12 months for this.

    Lets see how Mr Market treats this dog today.

    Shame they had to pay a special dividend just to get it into the 60-80% payout range, and couldn't re-invest more for growth... wouldn't want to drop below it otherwise the residents, many of whom are also shareholders, would be dumping

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