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  1. #31
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    Pretty sure all of us were convinced not to buy in based on the debates put up here (yes, my god, they actually come in handy!!!).

    Why buy 3rd/4th best in the sector when it is considered expensive @ IPO price when you can buy 1st/2nd best coming off a dip? The demand was never really there from us small guys imho.

  2. #32
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    Quote Originally Posted by BFG View Post
    Pretty sure all of us were convinced not to buy in based on the debates put up here (yes, my god, they actually come in handy!!!).

    Why buy 3rd/4th best in the sector when it is considered expensive @ IPO price when you can buy 1st/2nd best coming off a dip? The demand was never really there from us small guys imho.
    Yep and with Oceania having a very good chance of being sold as a going concern rather than listing (Quadrant and Infratil are two that have expressed an interest plus one other) this will be one very lonely puppy amongst the pit bulls.

  3. #33
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    Is it really that bad? It seems it was 'fairly valued' when listed, but I'm not sure if overpriced would be the word to use, with a gross dividend at about 6%, growth opportunities (naturally with retirement villages such as potential acquisitions and expansion of existing facilities) and a forecast PE ratio of about 16 for 2016 and 2017, it seems pretty 'cheap' compared to many NZX listed companies at the moment. Despite 2 "market updates" basically confirming everything is on tract/ok, the share price has continued to fall. So despite announcement nothing adverse and having seemingly good fundamentals, can anyone explain to me why the share price has fallen?

  4. #34
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    Quote Originally Posted by trader_jackson View Post
    Is it really that bad? It seems it was 'fairly valued' when listed, but I'm not sure if overpriced would be the word to use, with a gross dividend at about 6%, growth opportunities (naturally with retirement villages such as potential acquisitions and expansion of existing facilities) and a forecast PE ratio of about 16 for 2016 and 2017, it seems pretty 'cheap' compared to many NZX listed companies at the moment. Despite 2 "market updates" basically confirming everything is on tract/ok, the share price has continued to fall. So despite announcement nothing adverse and having seemingly good fundamentals, can anyone explain to me why the share price has fallen?
    Simple answer is that this company is not a property development company like the others listed and doesn't have the same growth potential as the others at this point in time.

  5. #35
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    Yes I suppose, will be interesting to see how their results this Thursday compare to prospectus, in particular how costs (of integration etc) are tracking

  6. #36

  7. #37
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    Interesting that they have been in a trading halt for almost 5 hours, starting at 10:02 (just after market open?), and no hints dropped as to why... http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/6963...a-trading-halt

    Potentially something big, probably an acquisition... (should be announced soon I would think...)

  8. #38
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    https://www.nzx.com/companies/ARV/announcements/266076

    5.5% dividend with very impressive profit growth forecasts? Forget about over-priced Ryman and Summerset, I wonder how long it is going to take people to start realizing the potential of Arvida...
    (and very high quality villages from what I have heard)

  9. #39
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    Quote Originally Posted by trader_jackson View Post
    https://www.nzx.com/companies/ARV/announcements/266076

    5.5% dividend with very impressive profit growth forecasts? Forget about over-priced Ryman and Summerset, I wonder how long it is going to take people to start realizing the potential of Arvida...
    (and very high quality villages from what I have heard)
    Don't get too excited TJ these are pure care facilities, you can't compare this company to Ryman and Summerset, no where near the same potential at this point.

  10. #40
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    Well there are development potential, and serviced apartments, but yes not quite the thousands of Ryman and Summerset, but still, I think the market is treating Arvida like a dog despite them beating most forecasts and made (what I believe) is a very, very good purchase.

    If anything, it shows that management have the ability to identify quality opportunities and negotiate a good deal (8.4x seems dam cheap vs 18x average P/E on NZX 50...)

    But yes, like all the 'bigger boys', Arvida is new to the block and as the share price shows, extreme caution has clearly been exercised
    Last edited by trader_jackson; 24-06-2015 at 09:24 AM.

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