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  1. #401
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by trader_jackson View Post
    SPH this morning showing Forsyth Barr loading up lately... not surprising given they reckon its worth $1.61 within the next 12 months. Nice to see they are putting their money where their mouth is, just still hard to believe ARV is even more undervalued than the extremely undervalued OCA.
    Might have needed more for their shorting customers.
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  2. #402
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    You know it’s not a very good announcement when the headline just reads “Momentum Builds”

    https://quoteapi.com/resources/da986...tum_Builds.pdf
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  3. #403
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    You know it’s not a very good announcement when the headline just reads “Momentum Builds”

    https://quoteapi.com/resources/da986...tum_Builds.pdf
    I thought the exact same thing

  4. #404
    Senior Member hardt's Avatar
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    They could have named the result - ARVIDA DELIVERS 29% LIFT IN UNDERLYING EARNINGS FIRST HALF FY 2018

  5. #405
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    You know it’s not a very good announcement when the headline just reads “Momentum Builds”

    https://quoteapi.com/resources/da986...tum_Builds.pdf
    The numbers look quite good though. Continues the underlying increase compared to the previous 1H's...and sets up another good Full year too.
    Couldn't see anything on the outlook though...although their comments on property valuations are interesting...not really expecting a big slowdown nationally...

  6. #406
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    Good result, my main concern is the step increase in operating expenses. Seems staffing is costing them a lot more after the pay settlement

  7. #407
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by hardt View Post
    They could have named the result - ARVIDA DELIVERS 29% LIFT IN UNDERLYING EARNINGS FIRST HALF FY 2018
    Better than ARVIDA DELIVERS 7% LIFT IN EPS

    Only 7% - cant be right ...for a growth company that is
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  8. #408
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    I agree, the headline was far to conservative... turns out it really was the worst part, the announcement itself was pretty good. Few percentage points more and we'll be where the famed Ryman is at - and that is trading at wild premiums, off the charts even, compared to ARV.

    What makes it more impressive is their margins (not only on new units but also resales), and the fact that only 1 unit was delivered this 1st half and 94 are on the way in the second half – this really is a result skewed to the 2nd half of the year in a massive way! (not to mention new sale settlements are expected to be 70 vs just 3 in the 1sthalf)

    In for a bumper full year result and big FY19 (and looks to be reasonable FY20 on the way as well). Despite a very good result, Mr Market seems to be not amused and probably waiting to see how much this apparent property slowdown impacts (maybe?)

    Weird that the Net Implied Value per Share is apparently $1.19, above the current share price, then again ARV is the original dog andshould trade at a discount.

    Crazy that this result seems to be largely due to their care division, which some have said on sharetrader "delivers no or negative profit"... imagine when things start to ramp up even just a tad? (which they will, already are really)... Momentum really is building... hey! maybe that wasn't such a bad headline afterall?
    Last edited by trader_jackson; 21-11-2017 at 09:22 AM.

  9. #409
    Senior Member hardt's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by trader_jackson View Post
    I agree, the headline was far to conservative... turns out it really was the worst part, the announcement itself was pretty good. Few percentage points more and we'll be where the famed Ryman is at - and that is trading at wild premiums, off the charts even, compared to ARV.

    What makes it more impressive is their margins (not only on new units but also resales), and the fact that only 1 unit was delivered this 1st half and 94 are on the way in the second half – this really is a result skewed to the 2nd half of the year in a massive way! (not to mention new sale settlements are expected to be 70 vs just 3 in the 1sthalf)

    In for a bumper full year result and big FY19 (and looks to be reasonable FY20 on the way as well). Despite a very good result, Mr Market seems to be not amused and probably waiting to see how much this apparent property slowdown impacts (maybe?)

    Weird that the Net Implied Value per Share is apparently $1.19, above the current share price, then again ARV is the original dog andshould trade at a discount.

    Crazy that this result seems to be largely due to their care division, which some have said on sharetrader "delivers no or negative profit"... imagine when things start to ramp up even just a tad? (which they will, already are really)... Momentum really is building... hey! maybe that wasn't such a bad headline afterall?

    This half entirely comprised of resales as was expected... focus is on that large pipeline moving along.


    Forward Underlying PE FY18E FY19E Notes to FY19
    ARV - $1.18 15-17x 13-14x Pipeline focused on FY19 - Relying on resale's for FY18

    Care outperformed expectations and the rest met expectations... therefore this result was fairly solid.

    Also... 4% yield is great too, a lot to like about ARV at current price IMO.
    Last edited by hardt; 21-11-2017 at 11:37 AM.

  10. #410
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

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