ARV - Arvida Retirement Villages

[Arbroath]

Real profit down

http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/3...-valuationhtml

Are you trying to be deliberately misleading?

[hardt]

Real profit down

http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/3...-valuationhtml

What do you consider "real profit"

One would think real profit to be operating profit irrespective of revaluations...

28% revenue growth
29% earnings growth

[trader_jackson]

Crazy that other growth company, F&P barely grew at half the rate ARV did, and ARV's dull year profit is extremely skewed towards the 2nd half of this year (As noted above). No wonder the share price closed up (And all the other operators closed down or no change)

[trader_jackson]

Saw Mr McDonald mentioned to NBR: "we're not actually seeing any slowdown in sales, either from resales or new stock, which is really pleasing". Due to the drivers of demand, namely being Arvida's "needs-based portfolio" - something I have been saying since day 1. (sum others seem to be hitting the rocks in resales, and new stock, but no worries... big last quarter on the way for them and they never miss their forecasts, well except ryman who didn't post their 15% growth for the first time in a decade or something like this, but sum others will never slow down!)
He also said that the whole wage thing wasn't going to impact ARV in the long run... specifically mentioning "In the longer term, we don't think it's actually going to impact us, on the basis that our occupancy levels are very strong and it's enabling us to provide strong premium charging on our products and that's offsetting the increased costs"

Forsyth reckon there is a strong few years coming up:

Their Forecast near-term development pipeline:
FY2018: 96 Units (company mentioned today it expects it to be 95, with 94 or about 99% of them delivered in the 2nd half)
FY2019: 101 units + 36 beds
FY2020: 175 units + 60 beds
FY2021: 70 units + 60 beds
So Forsyth reckon another near 600 on the way in 3 and a half years, and another 530 in planning stage (although about 92 of those 530 in planning stage may be included in Forsyth's 598 - so we'll just say in total well over 1000 units over the next 5 ish years).

Crazy that just 6 months ago, at FY2017, they had just 262 (or about half of what they have today) in "development construction activity"... Units/beds under construction: 14 in 2015, 24 in 2016, 262 in 2017, 506 in 2018... 700 in 2019?

Gets even more crazy when you consider they delivered just 5 (yes five) units or beds in 2015 and 2017 ("big year" in 2016 with 32 units delivered)... now they are delivering the previous 3 years added together multiplied by 2.1, in just the next 6 months. I don't usually put things in bold but that was so amazing I felt I had to.

On another note, I thought 95% was pretty amazing, but the care facility occupancy actually increased to 96% - basically full capacity (given the usual movements), and, as they have mentioned, "significantly" above industry average.

Finally, Won't bother going into the impressive margins (and numbers) of resales either... 33 in 2015, 149 in 2016, 166 in 2017, probably around 200 in 2018 (already half way there).

It is no wonder Forsyth reckon ARV is the most undervalued operator, although I'm sure OCA at 94c isn't far behind.

[winner69]

C'mon t_j show a bit more enthusiasm

SUM othe posters are more enthusiastic than you about their favourite company in this sector and give more compelling reasons to buy

You can do better mate, try a bit harder and even I might be convinced to become a shareholder

[winner69]

Interim has this bit - net implied value increased to $1.19 a share, up 1.6% in this financial year

What is this “net implied value”?


Just trying to make sense of their financials seeing t_j has failed in his duty to do so

[winner69]

Just before the recent big acquisition and rights issue ARV market cap was $431m

From the rights issue and payment to the vendor they have raised $93m of new capital

Market cap today is $420m - less than it was pre acquisition .....and they have taken on more debt

Half year NPAT was less than corresponding period last year

Don’t know what all this means but market value added declining seems to suggest the market is not too impressed at what’s going on



think my sums are right

[tipsy]

Not a lot of sellers at the moment, sp in for an upgrade?

[trader_jackson]

Just before the recent big acquisition and rights issue ARV market cap was $431m

From the rights issue and payment to the vendor they have raised $93m of new capital

Market cap today is $420m - less than it was pre acquisition .....and they have taken on more debt

Half year NPAT was less than corresponding period last year

Don’t know what all this means but market value added declining seems to suggest the market is not too impressed at what’s going on



think my sums are right

I don't usually use NPAT to determine how well one of the listed operators are doing, I didn't think you did either winner... I reckon they (the sector themselves) don't really trumpet this measure as the headline because we all know it includes bigly house gains... so I look at underlying: underlying EPS up 7%, margins on units growing nicely, and a very big 2nd half on the cards... sort of similar to Ryman who reported today (who also expect to have a bigger 2nd half - although not on the same bigly scale as ARV).
But wait there is more: RYM's margins are the lowest in years by the looks of it (ARV's are the highest ever) and ARV is (as I speculated earlier) just a few percentage points behind the all mighty R Y M. Remember also they raised capital at $1.15... share price has never finished been below that point since like a year ago, no worries!

Surprising really that the market likes Ryman's result so much, yet seemed unconcerned with Arvida's just a few days earlier (pushing RYM, who is already trading at elevated levels, to even higher elevated levels... crazy really)

Market seems to have re-rated ARV down a bit in recent months... not sure why because everything looks (and confirmed yesterday - is) pretty good.

I suppose it is no wonder Forsyth say it is the most undervalued in the sector!
(they reckon ARV is trading on a FY19 estimated PE of 12.1, while Ryman is a massive 63% higher at 19.7... even Summerset, the one that has the high gearing for the high growth, is higher at 12.8)

While the market wonders how to value ARV, holders and I will keep getting a 4% ish dividend (at today's price), the next 1.15c being paid just 10 days before Christmas - could the timing be any better?

[winner69]

Say you have a house in Auckland that increased in value from 1/2 mill to 1 mill over the last year

You haven’t sold so your underlying profit is zilch / zero

But your profit over the last year is 1/2 mill .....and your assets are worth 1/2 mill than a year go

Why use underlying profit?