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  1. #631
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    wowee even better than the best (ryman) by miles... and even better than I was expecting... everything up really. Share price should skyrocket... but it probably won't, everyone will go buy sum thing else for reasons I still cannot understand

  2. #632
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    Crazy good ARV...

    SURELY WE CAN MOVE PAST +140 NOW...it's time.

  3. #633
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    These look like an excellent set of results. The sector challenges they outline are consistent with others - but looking at those challenges, ARV looks the best of all to cope with them...and their high engagement scores bode well in a time of labour shortages.

  4. #634
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    Yep TJ, that's a stunning result, go you for all your well placed faith in the company. Full year normalised earnings increased 46% - 2017 , 43% -2018 and now (1/2 yr) 45%- 2019.
    Plus , after my disparaging comments on the last report presentation I must comment that this report is looking totally professional.

  5. #635
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    Quote Originally Posted by Maverick View Post
    Yep TJ, that's a stunning result, go you for all your well placed faith in the company. Full year normalised earnings increased 46% - 2017 , 43% -2018 and now (1/2 yr) 45%- 2019.
    Plus , after my disparaging comments on the last report presentation I must comment that this report is looking totally professional.
    They have probably been reading your comments lol
    Augers well for OCA. Am I the only one than finds ARV's development margin of just 16% underwhelming ? Solid result overall, happy to acknowledge that.

  6. #636
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    ARV share price heading north ...good

    Be $1.60 by Xmas ...even better
    “In a roaring bull market, knowledge is superfluous and experience is a handicap.”

    –Benjamin Graham”

  7. #637
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    ARV share price heading north ...good

    Be $1.60 by Xmas ...even better
    Better tell your bowling club mates before the word gets out

  8. #638
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    I thought this would happen... share price going nowhere fast anytime soon... typically typical... best ever half year by miles and share price still below where it was nearly 2 years ago
    Last edited by trader_jackson; 27-11-2018 at 11:13 AM.

  9. #639
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    Better tell your bowling club mates before the word gets out
    Neighbours bowling club mates ..I don’t play bowls

    Funny thing was some of them had a look around Village on the Park and were very impressed so that swayed them to buy into Oceania ....I then told them it’s was an Arvida village
    “In a roaring bull market, knowledge is superfluous and experience is a handicap.”

    –Benjamin Graham”

  10. #640
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    Quote Originally Posted by trader_jackson View Post
    I thought this would happen... share price going nowhere fast anytime soon... typically typical... best ever half year by miles and share price still below where it was nearly 2 years ago

    How much of the increase in profit came from the new villages which really only came on stream from H2 last year ...not much included in H118

    I see H119 earnings less than H218 earnings
    Last edited by winner69; 27-11-2018 at 11:29 AM.
    “In a roaring bull market, knowledge is superfluous and experience is a handicap.”

    –Benjamin Graham”

  11. #641
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    Quote Originally Posted by trader_jackson View Post
    I thought this would happen... share price going nowhere fast anytime soon... typically typical... best ever half year by miles and share price still below where it was nearly 2 years ago
    PE contraction is a bitter pill to swallow isn't it. Seeing it right across this sector. Explains why SUM other companies are also under the pump including even some people's market darling RYM. http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...432/291294.pdf

    Profit reporting sounds great especially the headline IFRS report doubling and underlying profit growth also sounds impressive at 45% but underlying eps is only up 17%, (ouch a sad and inconvenient truth) and its not the supercheap opportunity some thing at a forward underlying PE of 15.3.
    Last edited by Beagle; 27-11-2018 at 03:14 PM.

  12. #642
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    PE contraction is a bitter pill to swallow isn't it. Seeing it right across this sector. Explains why SUM other companies are also under the pump including even some people's market darling RYM. http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...432/291294.pdf

    Profit reporting sounds great especially the headline IFRS report and underlying profit growth also sounds impressive at 45% but underlying eps is only up 17% and forward underlying pe is 15.3.
    PE of 15 odd ...that’s expensive, especially when quite of lot of earnings are care related rather than developing stuff.

    A lot of H1 growth came from acquired villages ...eps accretive good ...but what does say about the villages they had.
    “In a roaring bull market, knowledge is superfluous and experience is a handicap.”

    –Benjamin Graham”

  13. #643
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    PE of 15 odd ...that’s expensive, especially when quite of lot of earnings are care related rather than developing stuff.

    A lot of H1 growth came from acquired villages ...eps accretive good ...but what does say about the villages they had.
    I have OCA on a forward underlying PE of about 11 and don't think ARV's premium is warranted. Heck SUM other companies with a much longer track record of strong growth are on a forward PE of just 14 now. The problem with headlines is everyone gets excited about doubling of profit but underlying eps growth of 17% really isn't that flash compared to the growth rate at last report point for OCA and SUM. Development margin of only 16% is also the laggard of the entire sector so nothing to write home about there either. Not a mutt or a dog but a very ordinary company with ordinary growth trading at a fulsome valuation is my assessment.
    Last edited by Beagle; 27-11-2018 at 01:44 PM.

  14. #644
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    Reading bits of the 2018 AR suggests that the acquisitions made H2 last year ( not included in H1 results) could have contributed more than $10m npat this half

    That’s a fair chunk of the 116% increased profit eh

    That’s one reason market not that excited I reckon.
    “In a roaring bull market, knowledge is superfluous and experience is a handicap.”

    –Benjamin Graham”

  15. #645
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    The metrics, high-ish underlying PE, modest partially imputed dividend yield, slight premium to NTA, underlying eps growth of only 17% and development margin of just 16% all point as this to being an "also ran" in this sector. Nothing to get excited about. Disc: Not holding and not intending to hold.

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