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  1. #421
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    Say you have a house in Auckland that increased in value from 1/2 mill to 1 mill over the last year

    You haven’t sold so your underlying profit is zilch / zero

    But your profit over the last year is 1/2 mill .....and your assets are worth 1/2 mill than a year go

    Why use underlying profit?
    But I can't go out and spend that half a million increase? So my underlying profit might as well be 0... it is no use to me now, if anything I will just have to pay more rates... a cash money outflow straight to Phil & Co's bank account

    Why 'use' what you can't use?

  2. #422
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by trader_jackson View Post
    But I can't go out and spend that half a million increase? So my underlying profit might as well be 0... it is no use to me now, if anything I will just have to pay more rates... a cash money outflow straight to Phil & Co's bank account

    Why 'use' what you can't use?
    But you worth 1/2 mill more and if I was going to buy you out wouldn't you want at least 1 mill ......put that in context of an ARV share valuation why real profits / book value / cash flows are a better guide to valuing them

    Underlying profits a good measure of how they are doing operationally on a year by year basis

    Don't think you will be convinced that underling profit multiples aren't really such a good thing
    Last edited by winner69; 23-11-2017 at 01:09 PM.
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  3. #423
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    But you worth 1/2 mill more and if I was going to buy you out wouldn't you want at least 1 mill ......put that in context of an ARV share valuation why real profits / book value / cash flows are a better guide to valuing them

    Underlying profits a good measure of how they are doing operationally on a year by year basis

    Don't think you will be convinced that underling profit multiples aren't really such a good thing
    You're right, I am not convinced underling profit multiples aren't really such a good thing... but I am convinced we will see a very strong 2nd half... market isn't convinced of anything by the looks of it which is weird because they are lapping up RYM's result

    However, I would accept a $2.50 takeover offer for ARV or PEB

  4. #424
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by trader_jackson View Post
    You're right, I am not convinced underling profit multiples aren't really such a good thing... but I am convinced we will see a very strong 2nd half... market isn't convinced of anything by the looks of it which is weird because they are lapping up RYM's result

    However, I would accept a $2.50 takeover offer for ARV or PEB
    You have to be impressed with Ryman’s $202m NPAT though - 8% ahead of last year when ARV was down

    Wonder why revaluations at ARV were so much less than last year when it looks like they have more properties?
    Last edited by winner69; 23-11-2017 at 01:32 PM.
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  5. #425
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    You have to be impressed with Ryman’s $202m NPAT though - 8% ahead of last year when ARV was down

    Wonder why revaluations at ARV were so much less than last year when it looks like they have more properties?
    I think we will see a 'significant' lift in the fair value of completed investment properties and development land (and cash flows), once a full valuation is undertaken at the end of the year (which will include significantly more delivered properties - about 99% of the years deliveries in fact)

    Time will tell
    Last edited by trader_jackson; 23-11-2017 at 03:23 PM.

  6. #426
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    $1.20... the highest price in a month... Mr Market must be beginning to read throuh the interim report.
    Clearly Mr Market has not read much of it because if it did, the share price would be much higher than $1.20
    Last edited by trader_jackson; 23-11-2017 at 06:29 PM.

  7. #427
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    But you worth 1/2 mill more and if I was going to buy you out wouldn't you want at least 1 mill ......put that in context of an ARV share valuation why real profits / book value / cash flows are a better guide to valuing them

    Underlying profits a good measure of how they are doing operationally on a year by year basis

    Don't think you will be convinced that underling profit multiples aren't really such a good thing
    A profit is not a profit until its realized. The situation you describe is referred too in the industry as embedded value. You can get a good handle on forecasting future underlying profits from resales by looking at total embedded value in the balance sheet at any point in time and dividing by about 7 to give an indication based on historical churn rates of what the expected realization will be in the year ahead.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  8. #428
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    A profit is not a profit until its realized. The situation you describe is referred too in the industry as embedded value. You can get a good handle on forecasting future underlying profits from resales by looking at total embedded value in the balance sheet at any point in time and dividing by about 7 to give an indication based on historical churn rates of what the expected realization will be in the year ahead.

    I obviously don’t explain things very well

    So is today’s ‘valuation’ (company worth) dependent upon this embedded value?

    Nobody has answered my query as to what this ‘net implied value increased to $1.17 a share’ statement means.
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  9. #429
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    Unhappy Yet another piece of financial nonsense

    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    ...

    Nobody has answered my query as to what this ‘net implied value increased to $1.17 a share’ statement means.
    https://stocknessmonster.com/announc...rv.nzx-301617/ page 8

    now what was ORA & DMF again ?

    PT
    om mani peme hum

  10. #430
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    Quote Originally Posted by Paper Tiger View Post
    https://stocknessmonster.com/announc...rv.nzx-301617/ page 8

    now what was ORA & DMF again ?

    PT
    Thank you mr Tiger

    Didn’t think of going back to March presentation

    So gone from $1.16 to $1.17 over last 6 months ....doesn’t seem very much
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

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