ARV - Arvida Retirement Villages

[Deej5]

Thank you mr Tiger

Didn’t think of going back to March presentation

So gone from $1.16 to $1.17 over last 6 months ....doesn’t seem very much

And from $1.36 to $1.17 over last 10 months ... go figure.

[hardt]

I obviously don’t explain things very well

So is today’s ‘valuation’ (company worth) dependent upon this embedded value?

Nobody has answered my query as to what this ‘net implied value increased to $1.17 a share’ statement means.

Another name for NTA

[Snow Leopard]

Another name for NTA

You did not follow the link I provided did you ?

[winner69]

Another name for NTA

Don't think so

NTA reported as $0.98

This net implied value of $1.19 as per Paper Tiger

[hardt]

You did not follow the link I provided did you ?

Did not see your post... would have said anything to stop the persistent questioning.

[winner69]

And from $1.36 to $1.17 over last 10 months ... go figure.

All to do with all the new shares they have issued ....130 million extra since Sep16

They say everything is eps accretive so we must trust them

Still haven’t sussed why revaluations were so low in H1 - compared to pcp as well as to likes of Ryman and Summerset on a relative basis. They say the H1 $8.9m was mainly from recently acquired villages, does this suggest older villages not getting more valuable

[trader_jackson]

All to do with all the new shares they have issued ....130 million extra since Sep16

They say everything is eps accretive so we must trust them

Still haven’t sussed why revaluations were so low in H1 - compared to pcp as well as to likes of Ryman and Summerset on a relative basis. They say the H1 $8.9m was mainly from recently acquired villages, does this suggest older villages not getting more valuable

Possibly does suggest older villages are not getting that much more valuable, but then again they haven't seen noticeable weakness... maybe they are just given the folk in Christchurch a better deal?
Embedded value still climbing and this 2nd half around 65 villas are to be delivered (the villas have 2x higher embedded value, as I'm sure you know, compared to serviced apartment... must mean something good) and begin sell down of these many villas this 2nd half (a large majority of the huge, by dog standards, 94 total deliveries expected this half)

Would not surprise me to see a 'jump' in fair value of investment properties in the 2nd half, not only due to more being delivered and sold, but also given in the 2017 financial year, 2nd half revaluations accounted for about 64% of the full year.

Although ARV is only up 4.6 ish percent this year, ARV's track record of delivering shareholder value, a fair bit via EPS accretive acquisitions, they've pretty good so far especially given they are the 'original dog'
sum other operators haven't even returned half a peanut, sorry half a percent, the last 52 weeks according to NZX's website

[ddrone]

Another big off-market trade this morning to open. Looks like someone is accumulating on the sidelines?

[winner69]

ARV don't seem to have given any guidance for F18 except that he 3 new villages will add $9m of underlying profit

Anybody done any sums or have any idea what their actually underlying profit for F18 could be - a bit more specific than awesomely amazing would be appreciated.

[trader_jackson]

ARV don't seem to have given any guidance for F18 except that he 3 new villages will add $9m of underlying profit

Anybody done any sums or have any idea what their actually underlying profit for F18 could be - a bit more specific than awesomely amazing would be appreciated.

With ARV delivering 99% of its villas and apartments and stuff this 2nd half, and the usual strong continuing resales of existing stuff (unlike sum operators), I'll let them off so they can focus on getting all the synergies and delivers sorted, before delivering a bumper profit (and outlook for the coming year) come the big day in 2018.
Management may even be considered generous giving everyone else a chance to get on board while ARV is still the cheapest operator on the NZX (and the recent trades would indicate time is running out)

Forsyth, reckon $30.7m underlying in 2018 full year (yes, a bigly 2nd half on the way - as I've mentioned already), jumping a massive third to $40.2m in 2019.

But be careful because Forsyth were pretty conservative... they thought ARV's half year would be just $11.0m underlying (it was actually $12.4m - a whooping 13% higher than Forsyth thought... maybe they are the ones buying even more for their clients or something?)

Forsyth thought RYM would deliver 85.0, they were nearly bang on as they actually delivered 85.2 underlying so they must be kinda good at estimating this sector, well estimating some, underestimating others anyway.