sharetrader
Page 45 of 167 FirstFirst ... 354142434445464748495595145 ... LastLast
Results 441 to 450 of 1669
  1. #441
    Senior Member hardt's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2017
    Location
    In a bubble
    Posts
    726

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    ARV don't seem to have given any guidance for F18 except that he 3 new villages will add $9m of underlying profit

    Anybody done any sums or have any idea what their actually underlying profit for F18 could be - a bit more specific than awesomely amazing would be appreciated.

    Without going into too much detail - *Expecting* 2H18 to be 20-30% higher than that of 1H18.

    Would bring the FY18 NPAT to 26-29m ( +15-25% PCP )

    1H19 is expected to be a cracker as well with a boat load of completed villas selling down.
    Last edited by hardt; 27-11-2017 at 08:18 PM.

  2. #442
    Guru
    Join Date
    May 2015
    Posts
    2,601

    Default

    Opened up an old Forsyth report on Arvida back in the dark old dog days of July 28 2015 (when the share price was 87c)
    They gave ARV a target price of $1.14... they thought underlying EPS would be:
    2017: 6.6c (was actually 15.2% higher, being 7.6c)
    2018: 6.8c (estimated to be 22.1% higher, being 8.3c - estimated on most recent report being November 22 2017)
    2019: probably thought it would be 7.0c - in the most recent report they reckon it is going to be 38.6% higher - being 9.7c

    Share price barely above the $1.14 they thought ARV would be at within 12 months of July 28 2015 (the $1.14 being on those dog like growth rates as well!)... shoot, must be cheapo

    For the record, 1 year later, July 28 2016 the share price was $1.14... imagine if they are right this time around and ARV hit Forsyth's 22 November 2017 12 month target price of $1.61?!
    Words can no longer explain how cheap ARV must be
    Last edited by trader_jackson; 27-11-2017 at 08:39 PM. Reason: clarification and expansion

  3. #443
    Senior Member hardt's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2017
    Location
    In a bubble
    Posts
    726

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by trader_jackson View Post
    Opened up an old Forsyth report on Arvida back in the dark old dog days of July 28 2015 (when the share price was 87c)
    They gave ARV a target price of $1.14... they thought underlying EPS would be:
    2017: 6.6c (was actually 15.2% higher, being 7.6c)
    2018: 6.8c (estimated to be 22.1% higher, being 8.3c - estimated on most recent report being November 22 2017)
    2019: probably thought it would be 7.0c - in the most recent report they reckon it is going to be 38.6% higher - being 9.7c

    Share price barely above the $1.14 they thought ARV would be at within 12 months of July 28 2015, based on those dog like growth rates... shoot, must be cheapo
    Dirt cheap and paying a solid dividend.

  4. #444
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2001
    Location
    , , .
    Posts
    37,737

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by trader_jackson View Post
    With ARV delivering 99% of its villas and apartments and stuff this 2nd half, and the usual strong continuing resales of existing stuff (unlike sum operators), I'll let them off so they can focus on getting all the synergies and delivers sorted, before delivering a bumper profit (and outlook for the coming year) come the big day in 2018.
    Management may even be considered generous giving everyone else a chance to get on board while ARV is still the cheapest operator on the NZX (and the recent trades would indicate time is running out)

    Forsyth, reckon $30.7m underlying in 2018 full year (yes, a bigly 2nd half on the way - as I've mentioned already), jumping a massive third to $40.2m in 2019.

    But be careful because Forsyth were pretty conservative... they thought ARV's half year would be just $11.0m underlying (it was actually $12.4m - a whooping 13% higher than Forsyth thought... maybe they are the ones buying even more for their clients or something?)

    Forsyth thought RYM would deliver 85.0, they were nearly bang on as they actually delivered 85.2 underlying so they must be kinda good at estimating this sector, well estimating some, underestimating others anyway.
    OK running with Forbars forecast

    Underlying profit F17 was $23.1 and Forbar guess is $30.7m

    That means EPS goes from 7.7 cents in F17 (Arvida report) to about 10 cents in F18 (depending on how they calculated the weighted average number of shares)

    Suppose not to bad but if Forbars guess allows for the $9m extra from the recent acquisitions (what Arvida) says not all that good.

    Struggling to find a compelling reason to rush out and buy here .....
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  5. #445
    Guru
    Join Date
    May 2015
    Posts
    2,601

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    OK running with Forbars forecast

    Underlying profit F17 was $23.1 and Forbar guess is $30.7m

    That means EPS goes from 7.7 cents in F17 (Arvida report) to about 10 cents in F18 (depending on how they calculated the weighted average number of shares)

    Suppose not to bad but if Forbars guess allows for the $9m extra from the recent acquisitions (what Arvida) says not all that good.

    Struggling to find a compelling reason to rush out and buy here .....
    Don't worry, you're not the only one winner... Mr Market seems to be as well (although slowly coming around)

    So I'll put it in earnings per shares so we can see how the acquisition impacts things, per share wise (which is the important part, right?)
    Normalised EPS (cps) was 7.6c n 2017 according to Forsyth's recent report, they reckon it is going to be 8.3c a share in 2018, so that means growth of about 10% per share, not bad given a very quiet 1st half, deliveries wise anyway... it is no wonder then that they reckon EPS in 2019 is going to be 9.7c, a healthy 14 and a bit percent growth from the prior year (and in 2020 10.8c a solid 11 and a bit percent growth from the prior year)

    Man, 2018 looks to be the quietest year in the next 3 years... no wonder the share price has been (so far) pretty 'quiet' as well... will start making alot more noise (relayed in the form of gains) in the following years it would seem... maybe ARV is just a bit to steady and solid for you to be tempted winner? Maybe a dabble in the famed xero could be better? much more exciting with all the unexpected disruption, announcements and changes etc, much more so than boring earnings per share accretive acquisitions anyway
    ... oh and forsyth are conservative, well have been in the past anyway... they can't predict when ARV's excellent, and proven (sort of), management will buy another EPS accretive village and/or greenfield site with high quality development opportunities.


    Last edited by trader_jackson; 27-11-2017 at 09:25 PM.

  6. #446
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2001
    Location
    , , .
    Posts
    37,737

    Default

    The much revered 4-traders have ARV net income (npat) going backwards fir the next few years. Must be wrong - can’t trust free stuff on the internet

    http://www.4-traders.com/ARVIDA-GROU...84/financials/
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  7. #447
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2001
    Location
    , , .
    Posts
    37,737

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by trader_jackson View Post
    Don't worry, you're not the only one winner... Mr Market seems to be as well (although slowly coming around)

    So I'll put it in earnings per shares so we can see how the acquisition impacts things, per share wise (which is the important part, right?)
    Normalised EPS (cps) was 7.6c n 2017 according to Forsyth's recent report, they reckon it is going to be 8.3c a share in 2018, so that means growth of about 10% per share, not bad given a very quiet 1st half, deliveries wise anyway... it is no wonder then that they reckon EPS in 2019 is going to be 9.7c, a healthy 14 and a bit percent growth from the prior year (and in 2020 10.8c a solid 11 and a bit percent growth from the prior year)

    Man, 2018 looks to be the quietest year in the next 3 years... no wonder the share price has been (so far) pretty 'quiet' as well... will start making alot more noise (relayed in the form of gains) in the following years it would seem... maybe ARV is just a bit to steady and solid for you to be tempted winner? Maybe a dabble in the famed xero could be better? much more exciting with all the unexpected disruption, announcements and changes etc, much more so than boring earnings per share accretive acquisitions anyway
    ... oh and forsyth are conservative, well have been in the past anyway... they can't predict when ARV's excellent, and proven (sort of), management will buy another EPS accretive village and/or greenfield site with high quality development opportunities.


    You are excited eh t_j but I still can’t see a compelling reason to buy

    You mention Xero, nah not for me but finally extracted myself from FLX with a profit and that now all goes into even more Pushpay ...... much better prospects than ARV and at least the market likes them.
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  8. #448
    Member
    Join Date
    Jan 2013
    Posts
    205

    Default

    250k through this morning @ 121. Creeping north on relatively big volumes.

  9. #449
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2001
    Location
    , , .
    Posts
    37,737

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by ddrone View Post
    250k through this morning @ 121. Creeping north on relatively big volumes.
    Jeez it’s got a rocket under it eh ...up to 125

    Should’ve listened to you gurus after all .....but Pushpay will see me right

    Hope it gets to 130 / 140 soon for guys.
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  10. #450
    Guru
    Join Date
    May 2015
    Posts
    2,601

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    Jeez it’s got a rocket under it eh ...up to 125

    Should’ve listened to you gurus after all .....but Pushpay will see me right

    Hope it gets to 130 / 140 soon for guys.
    Nobody selling now till $1.27 - and even then there ain't many sellers.

    You sound surprised winner?
    I am sure not... still more than 10c before we get close to a record close, and Forsyth still reckon another good 36 cents can be added to the share price (+ about 5c in dividends) between now and mid November next year, and they are the conservative ones remember... let the run continue.
    Mr Market must have decided to read the interim report a bit closer

Tags for this Thread

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •