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  1. #471
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    Need Forbar to pump it up again methinks

    What do you think the share price should be anyway Sylvester
    I have a target value of around $1.65. Based on long-term discounted earnings cashflows, with some allowance for high investment costs of the recent past (ie, free cash flow over the last 2 years has been negative thanks to all their investing). Not a horrible story though, as their investment has basically been about growth...so when you strip out the growth investment and focus on "base capex" only, I actually come up with a higher number than $1.65, I'm simply then applying a "risk factor" to allow for some variance between what I think is growth capex vs what actually IS growth capex.

    Will be VERY interested in the result.

  2. #472
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    sum other listed retirement operators have a bit more than 2x more assets than ARV, yet their share price is nearly 6x higher - sure it is has grown faster previously by a fair margin (although I think the gap will narrow fast over the coming years), but that is sum difference in valuation that is for sure.

    The May result will certainly be of interest
    It can't get any worse surely - I don't know what Mr Market is thinking giving arvida a share price under $1.20, despite only positive updates recently.
    Last edited by trader_jackson; 15-03-2018 at 01:31 PM.

  3. #473
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    Forsyth reckon its worth $1.52
    Dam cheap at $1.19

  4. #474
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    you always make me squint to read your last sentence T_J!

    surprised a certain someone hasn't got his paws into this one...


  5. #475
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    Hello did someone call the Beagle's name ? Its been such a "paw" performer over the last year I'm starting to wonder if there might be some value at the current price.
    Initial thoughts is TA gives zero scope for encouragement right at the minute.

    Where do people see 2H FY18 underlying EPS ? I am running the snout and paws over this but want to hear others thoughts first.
    Where do people see FY19 Underlying EPS ?

    Anyone got any broker research they can send me on this one, please PM me and I'll give you my e.mail address.
    Last edited by Beagle; 15-03-2018 at 02:57 PM.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  6. #476
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    I just picked up more MET and ARV to put away long term as I feel both now undervalued. 1.19c for ARV is stupid cheap I feel so topped up. They are in the same market as the rest doing similar things. Yes there is some execution risk but seriously cant be hard to sit at the end of an aging population and catch their fair share...

  7. #477
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    agree TA looks pretty average - & ARV has tracked sideways for most of the year.

    buyer depth is also not looking too flash either; so punters may be able to pick-up holdings slightly cheaper on the current weakness…

    confident that earnings will be higher in the coming results and provided they don’t drown under the recent issue, I will be hoping for medium-high single digit EPS growth based on the contributions from the three recently acquired villages (EPS accretive) and the delivery of the 94 new units (guidance just confirmed Monday).

    plenty in the pipeline too with Ana Bay/Park Lane for 1Q19 and the Park FY20 (with strong sector tailwinds, plus other opportunities).

    while I don’t see ARV being able to match the return of SUM others, the 70% of earnings that come from the care segment makes it much more of a defensive hold perhaps akin to some energy/infrastructure stocks, which should attract support.

    I believe any uplift in wage costs will be able to be passed on.

    While I am not as bullish as Forsyth, I do believe there is some good value here (maybe 15%ish?).

    a good long-term set-and-forget hold any which way you want to slice it though - and a reasonable entry price at these levels?

  8. #478
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    Hello did someone call the Beagle's name ? Its been such a "paw" performer over the last year I'm starting to wonder if there might be some value at the current price.
    Initial thoughts is TA gives zero scope for encouragement right at the minute.

    Where do people see 2H FY18 underlying EPS ? I am running the snout and paws over this but want to hear others thoughts first.
    Where do people see FY19 Underlying EPS ?

    Anyone got any broker research they can send me on this one, please PM me and I'll give you my e.mail address.
    Even better share it with all of us, just a short summary/snippet.

  9. #479
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    Hello did someone call the Beagle's name ? Its been such a "paw" performer over the last year I'm starting to wonder if there might be some value at the current price.
    Initial thoughts is TA gives zero scope for encouragement right at the minute.

    Where do people see 2H FY18 underlying EPS ? I am running the snout and paws over this but want to hear others thoughts first.
    Where do people see FY19 Underlying EPS ?

    Anyone got any broker research they can send me on this one, please PM me and I'll give you my e.mail address.
    Forsyth's thoughts:
    (1H 18 underlying EPS of 3.7c) 2H 18 underlying EPS of 4.6 cps = 8.3cps FY 18 - 14.3 underlying PE
    FY19 underlying EPS 9.0 - FY19 forward PE of 13.2 (for comparision: RYM is at 22.0, SUM at 16.6, Metlife at 14.5 and OCA at 13.1)

    Implied book value of NZ$1.19 and I won't even go into cash dividend yields too much as you already guessed it: ARV is on top (yes, even 7% higher cash dividend yield than OCA at 99c...)

    Disclosure: I have put in an order for more ARV shares, despite having 'too many' already.
    Seeing this reach $1.60 sometime in the next year would not even been remotely surprising to me.

  10. #480
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by trader_jackson View Post
    Forsyth's thoughts:
    (1H 18 underlying EPS of 3.7c) 2H 18 underlying EPS of 4.6 cps = 8.3cps FY 18 - 14.3 underlying PE
    FY19 underlying EPS 9.0 - FY19 forward PE of 13.2 (for comparision: RYM is at 22.0, SUM at 16.6, Metlife at 14.5 and OCA at 13.1)

    Implied book value of NZ$1.19 and I won't even go into cash dividend yields too much as you already guessed it: ARV is on top (yes, even 7% higher cash dividend yield than OCA at 99c...)

    Disclosure: I have put in an order for more ARV shares, despite having 'too many' already.
    Seeing this reach $1.60 sometime in the next year would not even been remotely surprising to me.
    Seems priced about right at the moment then

    FY19 EPS at 9.0 cents is only 8% more than FY18 ..... not much growth is it (SUM likely to be ~20%) and you think they deserve the same PE as SUM if not RYM (at least that what's I assume)
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

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