ARV - Arvida Retirement Villages

[Beagle]

The cost of good quality long term care with an ageing population is an ongoing issue. Various scenarios (and combinations thereof) for the government for meeting increasing costs:

(1) Reducing the quality of care
(2) Increasing the number of residents who contribute to the costs
(3) No longer subsidising the cost of hospital level care for “wealthy” residents.
(4) Nationalising rest homes or building State Institutions - this is often a left-wing solution (a beguiling solution for some socialists). This could come about if government refuses to pay more for the cost of care to private providers - and private providers refuse to provide more beds to meet demand. Most on both left and right would dismiss this option as doomed to fail.
(5)Increasing taxes, introducing new taxes to provide enough money for first rate care...(Hello to our old friend the TAX Working Group!)Mark my words. GST Will go up
(6) Letting Robots take over. Maybe technology will come to the rescue if carers price themselves too high. Who knows what sensors in the rooms and robotic toilets and lifting gadgets may be able to do in a few years....

Remember you read it from me first

[Blue Skies]

Remember you read it from me first

Hadn't thought of it but I think you're right, what 17.5% ?
It's much more doable, just requires an adjustment to the setting, acceptable politically, immediate returns to govt/no lag, harder to escape from, no extra work for already over stretched IRD.

[Beagle]

Hadn't thought of it but I think you're right, what 17.5% ?
It's much more doable, just requires an adjustment to the setting, acceptable politically, immediate returns to govt/no lag, harder to escape from, no extra work for already over stretched IRD.

Very efficient tax. Almost inevitable in my opinion we will follow the pattern of what happened in the U.K., first 17.5 and then 20 sometime thereafter. With a bit more tweaking of assistance to low income and family assistance its probably politically palatable as well.

[dobby41]

Very efficient tax. Almost inevitable in my opinion we will follow the pattern of what happened in the U.K., first 17.5 and then 20 sometime thereafter. With a bit more tweaking of assistance to low income and family assistance its probably politically palatable as well.

You couldn't increase GST without giving more breaks to the 'poorer' among us given a far greater proportion of their income is non-discretionary

[Blue Skies]

You couldn't increase GST without giving more breaks to the 'poorer' among us given a far greater proportion of their income is non-discretionary

Everything has it's drawbacks, besides doesn't increasing welfare benefits fit with existing Labour policy.

[Maverick]

TJ...why did I bother doing this post when we know all of the underlying EPS forecasts are just 'random made up numbers' that ARV are almost sure to exceed (as they have done ever since listing)?[/QUOTE]
Thanks Trader Jackson for a well laid out and factual summary. I appreciate the effort you made for the benefit of us others. This is Sharetrader at its best where we posters get really specialised with different companies and the intell gets swapped around.
I`d like to think I got pretty darn good at HLG while it was so undervalued (well my bank account says I did anyway) and was very happy to share the facts with other posters playing like a team. Off topic, tomorrow will be interesting for it as HLG announces its 6 monthly p/l and hopefully a few insights to the Ausy progress. We will hopefully get a feel where the new share price should lay now.
Back to ARV , I really don't know why this company gets left out of the limelight so much. I guess after 4.25 years of sluggish 15% (inc divis) yoy share price growth leaves it lagging from its peers, but like you I think this company is underrated. I guess for now it will have to stay in the shadows of the other great villages but I am nicely invested in ARV knowing it will have its own day sooner or later.
Disc- also got SUM + seriously overdosed on OCA.

[trader_jackson]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/325037

Of interest to me was the (continued) bigly increase in planned or consented units and beds pipeline:
FY16: 187
FY17: 907
FY18: 1099
Today (less than half way through FY19):1379 units/beds (less than 40% of those are that low margin [but crucial to attract residents] needs based stuff)

With a similar (net) development pipeline, a sort of similar post development portfolio (units/beds wise), ARV should really be at least as exciting as OCA... looking forward to 1H19 results out in the next month ish.
Yet 4 years on from listing, and a track record of increasing EPS, ARV is still the dog (and the cheapest) of the listed retirement stocks.
Lucky ARV aren't going too big into care suites, I believe there has been some push back against them

[trader_jackson]

all of a sudden outta nowhere ARV down 5 cents to the lowest it's been since July... what's going on?
(volume very low at least)

[Ggcc]

Every retirement stock taking a hit not just ARV

[Beagle]

Every retirement stock taking a hit not just ARV

Yeap, its a good old fashioned game of whack a mole at present (for those that don't know the game) - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D0n8N98mpes
5 listed retirement players just like in this game...