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  1. #91
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    Thanks for sharing this and it is interesting what he says.

    Although it is true what he says regarding care units being substantially less profitable, ARV does have a substantial number of independent apartment units as well, so it is not solely care based, as the article would imply. It could also benefit from potential economics of scale and synergies of bring many villages together, therefore lowering costs per person in care, and improving the margin, although this is still not going to be anywhere near as profitable as license to occupy I realize.

    ARV is also actively looking for other high quality villages, that will increase EPS and dividends per share (like Aria villages did), which will also further boost economics of scale and synergies.

    From a more macro point of view, What people seem to be missing in the whole retirement sector, is that increasingly people are living longer (less turn over = less profit for the licence to occupy, and more people needing care as they get older - ie care beds). ARV is well placed to capitalize on this, having quite a few care beds, while other retirement villages could fail to meet these ambitious growth plans, some have even pointed out there could be a short-medium term oversupply of villas.

    Aside from this, old people are getting more tech savvy (accessing forums such as this) and realizing just how much money these big retirement villages are ripping them off by, this combined with a potential oversupply will force those who are heavily exposed to having to sell villas into potential discounting, or other benefits (for example buy a licence to occupy off SUM instead of MET as they offer a fixed fee for life - this has already happened and now pretty much all villages have this - lets hope inflation doesn't take off right?) Where are the discounts/benefits going to come from next? ARV doesn't have to worry about this potential intense competition and has a higher % occupancy, further increasing benefits.

    Anyway, this is a very 'big' look at the picture and ARV is a long term game for me, with short term benefits (ie the dividend). SUM may be the stay this year, but in a decades time potentially not so much. Ryman could be the only village I would consider selling ARV for (if it gets back down to a more fair value of around $6), as they will also continue to do well as I know they have a strong care focus.

  2. #92
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    Chris Lee hit the nail on the head. Your "rebuttal" was cute though, T_J

  3. #93
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    Quote Originally Posted by OldGuy View Post
    Chris Lee hit the nail on the head. Your "rebuttal" was cute though, T_J
    Chris Lee clearly hasn't visited or talked to those who work in retirement villages, nor able to look into the long term future to much

  4. #94
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    Quote Originally Posted by trader_jackson View Post
    Chris Lee clearly hasn't visited or talked to those who work in retirement villages, nor able to look into the long term future to much
    FACT.
    Chris Lee has been involved with a retirement village on the Kapiti Coast for a very considerable time.
    Most probably one of NZ's most experienced people in the sector.

  5. #95
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    I apologize, and take that back then. I went to a retirement village in the Bay of Plenty recently (and have previously talked to relatives who have worked in/near the industry), it was surprising to me two things: that people are living longer (less resales = less license to occupy turnover), and how many people increasingly needed care.

    Given Chris's extensive involvement in the industry, I am therefore extremely surprised how short sighted his article on ARV is, given he has not appeared to considered to many macro factors affecting the sector in the long term. There are some ARV villages around the Kapiti area

  6. #96
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    Have you considered with people living longer they may actually be leaving it longer before they enter a retirement village?
    I forget the details, but I do seem to remember the age people joined a RYM village was a lot older than I expected.

  7. #97
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    Quote Originally Posted by percy View Post
    Have you considered with people living longer they may actually be leaving it longer before they enter a retirement village?
    I forget the details, but I do seem to remember the age people joined a RYM village was a lot older than I expected.
    Yes, could certainly happen, it is quite scare for those companies who are heavily in debt and heavily rely on sales and resales of their units to those who are able to not have to have care (and the costs of construction and refurbishment that go with that), to make money (hmm SUM...), they do make alot of money of this, but the days of 'easy money' could be numbered (anyone ever considered this?)

    While those who don't need care may choose to live on there own (like my own grandad, as like many people going into retirement these days, they understand just how much money retirement villages suck out of them and their inheritance), those that will need care, will need care, and this will increase in steady numbers, ARV is well positioned to capitalize on this, while also benefiting from having a few (in comparison to other listed operators), but very high quality villas to resell (not that there's that many to resell as the occupancy rate is so high!).

    SUM and MET (and potentially RYM) are not retirement villages... they are property development companies
    Last edited by trader_jackson; 04-12-2015 at 04:53 PM.

  8. #98
    percy
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    Quote Originally Posted by trader_jackson View Post

    SUM and MET (and potentially RYM) are not retirement villages... they are property development companies
    Yes,and on completion of each village the sale of occupancy rights gives them the capital for the next village,while retaining ownership of each village.
    Compounding.
    Inheritance.Safety,security,and comfort is what attracts people to retirement villages.Total care.It is their money to choose how to spend it.Would be great to die having spent the lot.!!! lol.

  9. #99
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    Good to see some free advertising for Arvida on 3 news just a few minutes ago... helping residents get active

    http://www.3news.co.nz/nznews/rest-h...#axzz3t6pIb6Nf
    Last edited by trader_jackson; 04-12-2015 at 06:53 PM.

  10. #100
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    Quote Originally Posted by percy View Post
    Have you considered with people living longer they may actually be leaving it longer before they enter a retirement village?
    I forget the details, but I do seem to remember the age people joined a RYM village was a lot older than I expected.
    Mid 70's.. Still working in Physical job.. 40 plus hours..

    Still keeping the much younger woman very happy :-))

    Who needs a retirement village ???

    Or even ignite .. !!

    Aye percy :-)))

  11. #101
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    Yes aye,no surprises there!!!

    That/those daughter/s still keeping you working.?
    Hells bells the granddaughter's new computer cost me over twice what I paid for mine.!!
    Like you I have put off my retirement for another 35 years.!

  12. #102
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    Try and get along to the next Ryman agm.
    Held in one of their villages.
    The Chairman put his mother in Ngaio Marsh Village.
    The CFO got to know Ryman through putting his mother in a Ryman home.
    A good number of shareholders attending every agm are village residents, who are both proud of their village,and their shareholding in Ryman.
    My brother-in-law is in the final stages of terminal cancer.Receives free prescriptions,yet the miserable chemist charged him $3 fax fee, as his Dr had faxed it through.!
    Last edited by percy; 04-12-2015 at 10:17 PM.

  13. #103
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    Not sure if anyone else noticed 'some action' that occured today, but in a trade at 9:01 this morning close to 1% (0.93%) of the company changed hands (at 0.91 - above market price of 0.90)... will be interesting to see if any SSH notices appear in the coming days as a result...Looking forward to more greenfield developments (which ARV have stated they are looking at)... as you all say, this is where the 'easy money' is

  14. #104
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    Righto people! I was having breakfast this morning n read local newspapers regarding one of Arvida's site open home. So I decided to have a visit and check thier site's development.

    https://www.nzx.com/companies/ARV/announcements/277863

    My General feedbacks:

    1. Regarding thier update (refer to above announcement), construction and renovation works are evident. I can confirm there are new service apartments and villas built and ready to be sold And ready to be occupied.
    2. The company is doing a good marketing locally to attract more residents. I can confirm there are quite a good interest with the newly built apartments and villas during my visit.
    3. Regarding thier care focused vision, I went to the rest home and walked around to see the staff and the residents. Guess what? One of the staff turned out to be my tenant wife! I had a good chat with the staff and looked around. There no evident of work pressures, staffs are happy working there. I could see the residents are enjoying thier lunch. Proportion of staff is adequate with the size of the residents.(trust me, my wife work in one of the privately own rest home, u don't believe the workloads they have. Residents are just a number for them)

    In a nut shell, I think Arvida is a long term investment. Obviously they need "time" to grow, and definitely more properties to buy and more developments to happen in order to see the share up. Generally speaking, they are not bluffing or lying about the current development on one of thier site. We could probably see this company grow like SUM, MET even RYm but they need "time"

    As we all know "time is the best friend of long term investor"

    Hope my small and short experience could help and give your general views about Arvida. Please DYOR.

    Note: I am am a long term holder. I like to do my own research and share my findings. My findings and feedback could be wrong so please don't sell your house and put all the money in or follow me!
    Last edited by King1212; 13-03-2016 at 02:22 PM.

  15. #105
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    Quote Originally Posted by King1212 View Post
    Righto people! I was having breakfast this morning n read local newspapers regarding one of Arvida's site open home. So I decided to have a visit and check thier site's development.

    https://www.nzx.com/companies/ARV/announcements/277863

    My General feedbacks:

    1. Regarding thier update (refer to above announcement), construction and renovation works are evident. I can confirm there are new service apartments and villas built and ready to be sold And ready to be occupied.
    2. The company is doing a good marketing locally to attract more residents. I can confirm there are quite a good interest with the newly built apartments and villas during my visit.
    3. Regarding thier care focused vision, I went to the rest home and walked around to see the staff and the residents. Guess what? One of the staff turned out to be my tenant wife! I had a good chat with the staff and looked around. There no evident of work pressures, staffs are happy working there. I could see the residents are enjoying thier lunch. Proportion of staff is adequate with the size of the residents.(trust me, my wife work in one of the privately own rest home, u don't believe the workloads they have. Residents are just a number for them)

    In a nut shell, I think Arvida is a long term investment. Obviously they need "time" to grow, and definitely more properties to buy and more developments to happen in order to see the share up. Generally speaking, they are not bluffing or lying about the current development on one of thier site. We could probably see this company grow like SUM, MET even RYm but they need "time"

    As we all know "time is the best friend of long term investor"

    Hope my small and short experience could help and give your general views about Arvida. Please DYOR.

    Note: I am am a long term holder. I like to do my own research and share my findings. My findings and feedback could be wrong so please don't sell your house and put all the money in or follow me!
    I appreciate it greatly and do look forward to Arvida both continue to develop as a rest home ("care based") and look forward to them embarking on more brownfield and greenfield based development (both of which the company has mentioned it is interested in and/or currently undertaking). I believe the Browns Bay one is doing very nicely.

    Although capital gains growth could be argued to be slower than that of say SUM with ambitious building and sales targets (that they are delivering on... so far), I will continue to enjoy a 5% yield instead.

    An immediate concern for ARV, as a stock, is that when the escrows end (which I believe is mid this year?) the market is flooded with "All Black sellers" who just want cash... I am sort of hoping this 'retail stupidity' (fueled by short signed panic), demonstrated very well in PEB a few months back, will happen so I can pick up some cheap shares for myself! (Although unlike PEB, I don't think ARV will increase 57% 4 months!)

    Disclosure: I brought at IPO price so I am down a bit capital wise, although a friend of mine brought at 82c in Oct 15, after noticing a few directors continuing to purchase more shares, and has enjoyed over 9% capital gain already, and on track for a 7% yield - unheard of in the retirement sector!
    Last edited by trader_jackson; 13-03-2016 at 02:41 PM.

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