ARV - Arvida Retirement Villages

[Master98]

Not surprisingly a broker has upgraded its price target on Arvida to $1.14, net dividend yield currently 5.2%.

Clearly brokers aren't always right, but even if they only get to half way to the price target in the next 12 months (from 87c to $1 instead of $1.14)... will still look forward to happy days ahead, and a good interest rate to match

Could even be introduced into the NZX 50 if share price goes up a bit...

yes solid company with solid income(return) suitable to longer term investors, you will get rewarded.

[troyvdh]

Dear Trader.Your enthusiasm is noted....However please take note of NG post.
Have you reflected on the fact that you are (as I am and many others) quite privileged to hear the opinions of many well seasoned SM battlers...I for one quite cherish the wisdom and Knowledge expressed by many posters.

Im a great fan of disclosure...what about you....cheers troy.

....are you an All Black...just asking

[trader_jackson]

Fair questions raised about my interests and disclosures, and I believe I have disclosed this before, but I do own a couple, being young not exactly a huge amount. I just can't get over the good fundamentals of this company, and yet the market treats it like rubbish (in my opinion).

And also someone has asked me this before but I did not buy in at all because of any all blacks affiliated with it, this had and still has 0% influence on me.

I also appreciate the wisdom etc, as one of the users helped me better understand how retirement villages (those in development/expansion mode) actually work... The thing I find interesting is I still have not been given a reason as to why the share price has dropped from its listing price despite good fundamentals (PE, yield etc) and outlook (overall retirement fundamentals etc)...

[trader_jackson]

I think he was implying me... always fun to have a bit of banter

[trader_jackson]

https://www.nzx.com/companies/ARV/announcements/268834

Quarterly dividend payment, equivalent to a nice 4.7% yield, FY2016 to exceed guidance, growth opportunities... sounds all good, and should lead to increased dividend and capital gain. (no mention yet of 'combing/merging' issues regarding accounting systems etc... I assume there were none and its all clear sailing)

[trader_jackson]

https://www.nzx.com/companies/ARV/announcements/268834

Quarterly dividend payment, equivalent to a nice 4.7% yield, FY2016 to exceed guidance, growth opportunities... sounds all good, and should lead to increased dividend and capital gain. (no mention yet of 'combing/merging' issues regarding accounting systems etc... I assume there were none and its all clear sailing)

[trader_jackson]

Breif Metrics.JPG
I hope this is of some use? Based of projections from Forsyth (who have usually been pretty good in the retirement sector)
I don't believe they are using underlying profit, but net profit instead... What I did see was that ARV's underlying earnings are currently higher than its net profit, and SUM's are not (have not look at the other two)

[trader_jackson]

I probably am confused.. but:

From ARV:
- NPAT of $3.1 million, ahead of IPO forecast
- Underlying Profit of $4.0 million, in line with IPO forecast

I will try find and recreate with underlying earnings (ie profit?)

[trader_jackson]

Capture.JPG
ARV still the cheapest?? (forecast to be at least anyway, also MET I have increased the 2015 forecast by 13% to try reflect growth, but it could be less or more, so not that reliable)

$3m was 'unusually low' due to expected merger costs etc, it is forecast to be upwards of $14m next year, making a dividend of $3m per quarter easily possible.

[Lola]

Also, it's impossible for such companies to pay out 90% of profits as dividends as your figures imply unless the plan to fund all future capex from debt, which would be dumb. These figures just don't add up.

U r dead right.
actually I heard it said by someone who wud know that a few of the assets vendored in to the float were quote the crappy ones unquote.