ARV - Arvida Retirement Villages

[winner69]

Had a quick look at the recent release and it confirmed that the results were CONSISTENT WITH THE IPO FORECAST>

I don't know where you get off spouting all this misinformation, TJ, but its incredibly irresponsible and a total disgrace.

This thread should be purged accordingly. Its misleading and just plain wrong.

Assume the first sentence is quoting TJ

But the company says it is

Arvida announces FY2015 unaudited financial results in line with IPO guidance, declares maiden dividend in line with forecast. Full Year release -

- NPAT of $3.1 million, ahead of IPO forecast
- Underlying Profit of $4.0 million, in line with IPO forecast
- FY2015 final dividend of $2.3 million (representing 1.03 cps) declared, in line with IPO forecast
- National footprint established with the successful acquisition of 17 retirement villages and aged care facilities
- Key integration tasks completed
- Existence of synergy benefits confirmed and initial benefits locked in
- New Support Centre team in place with key leaders appointed
- Development of Arvida brand, culture and values across the group
- Arvida affirms FY2016 guidance in line with IPO forecast
Disc. just a passing interest in ARV

[winner69]

No tj is trying to suggest that the recent result was way below the ipo forecast and that next years profit would be three or four times higher than this year. Absolute bollocks

Ah so ...now I understand your point

I not impressed with Arvida (as an investment) either

[trader_jackson]

Assume the first sentence is quoting TJ

But the company says it is

Arvida announces FY2015 unaudited financial results in line with IPO guidance, declares maiden dividend in line with forecast. Full Year release -

- NPAT of $3.1 million, ahead of IPO forecast
- Underlying Profit of $4.0 million, in line with IPO forecast
- FY2015 final dividend of $2.3 million (representing 1.03 cps) declared, in line with IPO forecast
- National footprint established with the successful acquisition of 17 retirement villages and aged care facilities
- Key integration tasks completed
- Existence of synergy benefits confirmed and initial benefits locked in
- New Support Centre team in place with key leaders appointed
- Development of Arvida brand, culture and values across the group
- Arvida affirms FY2016 guidance in line with IPO forecast
Disc. just a passing interest in ARV

Not sure why people would refer to the IPO forecasts after a significant purchase of Aria... but anyway lets get back to business:

Ok lets have a look at the most recent results presentation, released 21 August (taking into account your post winner69 was 2 days after this release...)
- "First quarter dividend of $2.9 million (1.05 cents per share)" - ahead of forecast of last quarter by 2% (not sure what IPO forecasts were to be honest)
- "Based on current expectations, Directors confirm FY16 guidance to exceed the IPO prospectus" - $14m is outdated, $16.6m underlying profit (rising to 18.0m in 2017) is estimate from Forsyth (28 July) hence, going off current prices, ARV is still the "cheapest" (as Forsyth, and the previous picture I posted indicated)

So the company has already stated it will IPO forecasts in 3 respects: NPAT (already stated by winner69), Final dividend (just), FY2016 guidance (and probably beyond)... and the company is still looking for price accreditation acquisitions (hence even more potential to increase profits etc)

Summary:
No issues with integration (so far at least), good management have proven they can find a quality village, company is ahead of IPO forecasts in 3 major respects, I state this on here... and what happens? everyone on here calls it (and me??) a dog?

[Snow Leopard]

This thread looks somewhat different from when I read it over the weekend (it would seem that NewGuy has gone completely) but was intrigued and have actually looked into Arvida as a company.

Firstly the 2015 'Annual' Report and Accounts only cover the period from the foundation of the company on 17-Dec-2014 through to 31-Mar-2015 and are not for a full year.
This appeared to cause a lot of confusion and angst and is a shining example of it paying to actually read company accounts thoroughly and carefully.

Secondly Arvida make a reasonable and real profit on day to day operations and that is a nice source of cash.

Since then they have 'bought' some extra villages for a equity & debt mix and changed the picture a bit and my guess as to where there are currently going is:

Current NTA around $0.763 per share.
A minimum FY16 'after tax operating profit' of $11.3m (4.1cps) and probably more.
Add into that any realised and unrealised revaluation gains as you wish.
Financial headroom to build a few new units or carry on acquiring, but as they intend to pay reasonable dividends then they are not likely to be the 'growth' companies that RYM & SUM are and that MET seems unsure about becoming.

It is early days for Arvida and until they have a few more sets of accounts on the board there is the uncertainty of whether the company will actually perform.

Is it a good buy at $0.85 a pop? Of that I am not sure but could be interested if it came closer to that NTA.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[trader_jackson]

I agree it is still early days for ARV, but yet again another nice update today... the key thing I saw was that greenfield development is now in consideration (not just brownfield)... a growing company, with a great dividend...

https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/220884.pdf

(Dividend paid today as well )

[trader_jackson]

Another step in the right direction...
https://www.nzx.com/companies/ARV/announcements/270698

[trader_jackson]

Thought I would bring this up again, will be interesting to see the half year report this Thursday, looking forward to what will become the usual from ARV: a good quarterly dividend payment, increasing profits, with high quality village and occupation rates, and extremely little exposure to dropping (or 'stabilizing' if you like) Auckland house prices.

(thursday is a big day for me, Pacific edge and Arvida excitement all in the space of a few hours?! much wow!)

[winner69]

You be happy with announcement t_j

If valued on same basis as Ryman worth nearly $3 --- but I get the impression 'cheap' for a reason

[OldGuy]

You be happy with announcement t_j

If valued on same basis as Ryman worth nearly $3 --- but I get the impression 'cheap' for a reason

yes, and a big part of that reason is its mediocre projected growth...

[trader_jackson]

Very happy with the result, probably going to be over $15 in profit for the full year, and at current prices thats a PE of around 15 (I think), dam cheap....

Growth isn't going to be as great as that of SUM, but it certainly is going to be better than that of the power companies, and yet they are trading at a much higher PE (on average) than that of ARV (yes I realize they could be argued to be valued differently, eg on FSF, but still)