ARV - Arvida Retirement Villages

[trader_jackson]

Good price increase today (so far)...

About time it got off a PE of just 14.7... bargain buy days could be over... (ARV might have not been included in Briscoe's massive 50% off sales anymore)

Onwards and upwards to $1, with a nice dividend paid just before Christmas

[trader_jackson]

Good price increase today (so far)...

About time it got off a PE of just 14.7... bargain buy days could be over... (ARV might have not been included in Briscoe's massive 50% off sales anymore)

Onwards and upwards to $1, with a nice dividend paid just before Christmas

[winner69]

Good price increase today (so far)...

About time it got off a PE of just 14.7... bargain buy days could be over... (ARV might have not been included in Briscoe's massive 50% off sales anymore)

Onwards and upwards to $1, with a nice dividend paid just before Christmas

Must be new/oldguy buying in ...neve could resist a bargain

[GR8DAY]

...why is the ANZ sight showing their PE as 69plus??

[trader_jackson]

I think its because they made not yet had a full year report, only 2 half years, with the first one being significantly impacted by one off costs (which was always expected so judging off this was pretty silly...)

Anyway lets look at the numbers:
They made 7.4m for half year... with another 7+m expected... lets just say $14m absolute worst case scenario full year profit, with a market cap of (now) just under $260m, PE is 18.6 (aprox) still far lower than any other retirement village (I believe)

As always, DYOR (and think about it...)

[winner69]

I think its because they made not yet had a full year report, only 2 half years, with the first one being significantly impacted by one off costs (which was always expected so judging off this was pretty silly...)

Anyway lets look at the numbers:
They made 7.4m for half year... with another 7+m expected... lets just say $14m absolute worst case scenario full year profit, with a market cap of (now) just under $260m, PE is 18.6 (aprox) still far lower than any other retirement village (I believe)

As always, DYOR (and think about it...)

t_j - do the same sum for Ryman

H1 NPAT was $132m - double that and you get $264m with market cap of $3.9 billion is a PE of 14.7 ....hmm

[Snow Leopard]

Unless they are going to pull a rabbit out of a hat* then I can see no justification for a share price as high as $0.95.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Disc: Reserve the right to use the 'Well, they pulled a rabbit out of the hat' defense at a later date.

[winner69]

T_j - may as well look at MetLife as well

F15 NPAT $124m and market cap of $913m gives P/E of just over 7.4 ......hmm

[OldGuy]

Must be new/oldguy buying in ...neve could resist a bargain

haha, well played good sir!

[winner69]

t_j did you see this from Chris Lee. He has a different view on Arvida than you. Maybe Chris is oldguy's brother?
http://www.chrislee.co.nz/taking-stock

Arvida, (ARV) a rest home operator, announced a profit of around $7 million based largely on property revaluations.

The government-set charges for rest home care leaves very little if any margin for rest home operators but those who offer retirement villas to active residents can make very large sums by selling licenses to occupy villas, and controlling the selling process indefinitely.

The likes of Ryman, Summerset and Metlife have thousands of property units and make such healthy gains from property that they can afford to accept the barely break-even revenue of rest home care for the users of their total care facilities.

Profits from total care depend on minimal labour costs, or modest food budgets, or from selling add-on facilities, which are stylized as ‘’premium’’ services.

These can include add-ons for some apartment-occupying residents, such as, in-house assistance, delivered meals, or even car parking or things as simple as a superior view or access to sunlight.

Arvida, partly owned by a few All Blacks, has a higher percentage of its residents in care and therefore is unlikely ever to be categorized as a retirement village operator.

Its profits will always be anchored by the unprofitable activity of rest home care unless it can acquire the capital and the land to expand its retirement village assets.

Its original owners, including the All Black investors, are restricted from selling for some months yet. They would be very wise to sell and buy into Ryman/Summerset/Metlife, if they wish to benefit from the profitable part of the sector.

Arvida shares listed at 95 cents and now sell at 90c, despite the company achieving the level of profitability forecasted