ARI (Arrium) : At Rock bottom, ore not?

[percy]

Investment opportunity??????????????
Since 20th September 2014 ARI has lost 42%,so $1,000 "pickled invested " then, is valued by the market at $580 today,
while in the same time my $1,000 "soundly invested" in HNZ, is valued by the market at 137% more than ARI,ie $1,380.
Best not to do 'pickles"..!!!! lol.

[Snoopy]

Investment opportunity??????????????
Since 20th September 2014 ARI has lost 42%,so $1,000 "pickled invested " then, is valued by the market at $580 today,
while in the same time my $1,000 "soundly invested" in HNZ, is valued by the market at 137% more than ARI,ie $1,380.
Best not to do 'pickles"..!!!! lol.

You and I both have substantial investments (for us) in banks Percy. We have both done well out of them. That doesn't mean we should put more money into banks at todays prices, nor should we necessarily sell. My investment in Arrium is part of my diversification strategy. It comes with certain risks for sure, and as we know the market tends to exaggerate these on the downside. Personally I feel very comfortable with my holding bought - on average - for less than deep value gurus Alan Gray paid. I expect to maintain my Arrium holding for many years and am looking forwards to the resumption of a modest dividend in a few years time. To judge the success or otherwise of my strategy in just a few months is far too soon.

SNOOPY

[percy]

You and I both have substantial investments (for us) in banks Percy. We have both done well out of them. That doesn't mean we should put more money into banks at todays prices, nor should we necessarily sell. My investment in Arrium is part of my diversification strategy. It comes with certain risks for sure, and as we know the market tends to exaggerate these on the downside. Personally I feel very comfortable with my holding bought - on average - for less than deep value gurus Alan Gray paid. I expect to maintain my Arrium holding for many years and am looking forwards to the resumption of a modest dividend in a few years time. To judge the success or otherwise of my strategy in just a few months is far too soon.

SNOOPY

I wish to apologise for my post.
It was what I thought,but I should have kept my thoughts to myself.
I hope you can turn around in a year or two's time, and point out that ARI is the biggest profit you have ever made.!!!

[Snoopy]

To be frank, I don't regard Arrium as an iron ore investment any more. As long as they cover their costs I am much more interested in how the recovery of the steel division goes

And how is the steel division doing? They are picking a fight with a local importer "Best bars Steel" (http://www.bestbar.com.au/).

http://www.ferret.com.au/articles/ne...-boss-n2521059

"Interim duties on steel products requested by Arrium against allegedly dumped goods could be disastrous, the local steel company Best Bar Reinforcements has said."

"The Australian Financial Review reports that Best Bar’s chief Grant Johnston feared for the future of his company if such measures were taken."

"Johnston’s firm (340 employees), which has an annual turnover of $220 million and bends and fabricates imported steel, uses Singapore’s NatSteel (owned by India’s Tata Group) as a supplier."

Further info from the 2nd March AFR article.

-----

The NatSteel mill in Singapore is one of the mills being investigated by the ASX as a result of the Arrium dumping claim. Arrium claim the cost of delays in dumping investiagtions and action since October 2013 has been greater than the entire steel divisions $51m EBITDA made in 2013-2014. They cliam one unresolved ADC investigation has taken more than 300 days. Johnston of Best Bars claims that NatSteel, their partner of fifteen years, are playing by the rules.

Johnston said that Arrium have around 60% market share of the rebar fabrication market and only 20% of Australian fabriactors, like 'Best bars', don't use Arrium for distribution.

-----

Ther are always two sides to a story. But the Anti-Dumping Commission taking over 300 days to complete an investigation does seem a little on the long side. If you believe the claims neither the local manufacturers or the importers are making any money. No wonder building in Australia is so much cheaper than on this side of the Tasman!

SNOOPY

[Joshuatree]

A friend sent this to me re China hard landing. The woman is the one with the facts.

http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2015/02/china-already-hard-landing/

[Snoopy]

A friend sent this to me re China hard landing. The woman is the one with the facts.

http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2015/02/china-already-hard-landing/

A near 90 minute panel discussion with pointy heads! The woman is Anne Stevenson Wang co-founder and director of J-Capital Research. Is there anything relevent to Arrium in here? Or is this a general economist anti-China rant?

SNOOPY

[Joshuatree]

Id just listen to the lady. If correct, metals prices will be affected and steel.A bottom nowhere near yet. ARI would be affected no? Nothing like the straight metal producers tho. Have just posted it on its own thread as well.

[Snoopy]

Id just listen to the lady. If correct, metals prices will be affected and steel. A bottom nowhere near yet. ARI would be affected no? Nothing like the straight metal producers tho. Have just posted it on its own thread as well.

So nothing specific to Arrium then, or even the steel industry? Falling metal prices means that Arrium is affected? If you accept that steel is already being sold below cost of production already then all steel mills globally (including in China) will just shut down because globally there is no demand for steel?

SNOOPY

[Joshuatree]

Iron Ore down 4% and under $60. Is this a direct result of china predicting 7% growth(yeah right) next year. BHP RIO AGO MGX ARI(sub 20c) all down.

[Snoopy]

Allan Gray posted another ASX notice today to say that they are still accumulating, now holding 13.45% of shares (up from 12.15% on December 15th 2004).

Another substantial shareholder on the move (11th March). The Singaporean government controlled GIC Private Limited held 7.08% of the voting power on 1st November 2012. That stake has now increased to 8.21%. The shares were acquired between November 2012 and November 2014 at prices between 24c and $1.64.

In addition Director Brian Davis has been increasing his holding.

SNOOPY