Scales - SCL

[Ace]

As Roger/Beagle and others will know, I'm a SCL bull and I've rooted for it at the ST meeting earlier in the year.
Despite those facts, I do agree with what others have said and that is, currently SCL is nearly if not in the range of being fully valued on a fundamental basis - and on a DCF model, of course this does depend on the assumptions and discount rates applied, which can vary based on ones tolerance to risk. I have been told that SCL and RYM have been suggested as 'safe-havens' with current political uncertainty and stands to benefit from a weakening NZD should a certain political event occur. SCL does have it's merits depending on your investing goals, it was and still remains a solid company with sound prospects.

That being said, up up and away... I don't mind the 'meteor'ic rises.

[winner69]

was in a rush so quickly typed put some stuff , yea dont know where 5.01 came from? and i forgot to put my ^ function in the calc for pv that all , anyway the instrinsic should have been 4.15 so still undervalued on this assumption based on current info.

your 4.15 and my 3.99 pretty close ....just the roundings

So not far of a 'fair' value then

[bull....]

your 4.15 and my 3.99 pretty close ....just the roundings

So not far of a 'fair' value then

yes based on current assumptions , doesnt take account of the recent nz dollar drop though and any aquisitions that might happen or govt developments etc so i would expect upside to these assumptions at some stage.

[BeeBop]

I sold using a 10% discount rate as I had decided it was well enough valued for the time being (I also had a $4 value on it using the GGM amongst other measures).....now down to only three individual holdings in my NZ portfolio. Will put the funds from this into Milford’s diversified income portfolio - a park-up for the future but still returning more than my actual discount rate of 4.3% before tax (property portfolio).

[bull....]

I sold using a 10% discount rate as I had decided it was well enough valued for the time being (I also had a $4 value on it using the GGM amongst other measures).....now down to only three individual holdings in my NZ portfolio. Will put the funds from this into Milford’s diversified income portfolio - a park-up for the future but still returning more than my actual discount rate of 4.3% before tax (property portfolio).

im holding still looks cheap

[Beagle]

As Roger/Beagle and others will know, I'm a SCL bull and I've rooted for it at the ST meeting earlier in the year.
Despite those facts, I do agree with what others have said and that is, currently SCL is nearly if not in the range of being fully valued on a fundamental basis - and on a DCF model, of course this does depend on the assumptions and discount rates applied, which can vary based on ones tolerance to risk. I have been told that SCL and RYM have been suggested as 'safe-havens' with current political uncertainty and stands to benefit from a weakening NZD should a certain political event occur. SCL does have it's merits depending on your investing goals, it was and still remains a solid company with sound prospects.

That being said, up up and away... I don't mind the 'meteor'ic rises.

Kudos to you and one or two others. I do indeed recall several attending our annual meeting in Auckland were keen on Scales including you so you've aced this The hound sticks with his fundamental valuation at $3.20 despite admitting to a real fondness for fresh juicy apples. Over priced shares are in abundance on the NZX and there's only a small number of shares trading SUMwhat below fair value.

[Oliver Mander]

Kudos to you and one or two others. I do indeed recall several attending our annual meeting in Auckland were keen on Scales including you so you've aced this The hound sticks with his fundamental valuation at $3.20 despite admitting to a real fondness for fresh juicy apples. Over priced shares are in abundance on the NZX and there's only a small number of shares trading SUMwhat below fair value.

Interesting, Beagle. Have run my own rule over this during the week, and came up with an initial valuation of $3.21. We must drink from the same foodbowl...
Does look like a solid, well-run organisation though. Bit of risk driven by exchange rate volatility...

[bull....]

guess all the just over $3 dollar valuation people have sold , are in disbelief off a price closer to $4 will probably have a coronary when it hits $5. suggestion would be go over your analysis check what you have done wrong and dont second guess the market.

[James108]

guess all the just over $3 dollar valuation people have sold , are in disbelief off a price closer to $4 will probably have a coronary when it hits $5. suggestion would be go over your analysis check what you have done wrong and dont second guess the market.

In your analysis did you take into account the cash investment it takes to generate the growth? Did you take into account debt at all?

My value from DCF is far less than yours. I suspect you need to revisit your model.

Still a holder though.

[bull....]

In your analysis did you take into account the cash investment it takes to generate the growth? Did you take into account debt at all?

My value from DCF is far less than yours. I suspect you need to revisit your model.

Still a holder though.

the example i posted is a dividend discount model not a dcf model. The current market price supports my model valuation not some other posters dcf models.

All models have an element of subjectivity its a matter of finding the one that works for the stock.