Scales - SCL

[Beagle]

Not a dividend hound but 17 cents doesn't seem much

Its all about "strong growth" this one mate but 5% fully imputed ~7% gross isn't too shabby in this ultra low interest rate environment. Apple crop well up on last year. I'm not worried about the last official forecast being last December, this company has a history of under promising and over delivering which is something of a lost art on the NZX these days. I guess when a business has been going as long as Scales has its nice to see some old fashioned ways of doing things.

[winner69]

Hi - where did you get 17c from as I can't recall it being that much?

This is what they said - Taking into account the 6.5c interim and 4c special dividends paid in January 2016, dividends for the 2015 year total 17c per share,

[winner69]

I guess when a business has been going as long as Scales has its nice to see some old fashioned ways of doing things.

Raz said this after the ASM - I felt the AGM was very professional..nearly thought for a moment I was back in the international market place rather than the NZ company environment...

Good endorsment

[Ace]

Hmm PT - you seemed to have silenced everybody

That $48m to $55m ebitda guidance for F16 does seem to be the only one - and that is indeed 10%-20% below what was achieved in F15

The share price was $2.40 when they said that. It is now 40% higher ...without any new news except the Chinese buying in at $2.60

Share price appreciation would imply punters are actually looking for a boomer of a half year result and updated guidance for the full year way beyond ebitda of $61m (F15 number)

But ongoing disclosure guidelines would suggest that $62m is tops - (if 15% movement is the guidelines for disclosing material changes than seeing it hasn't been done so far that is about as far as they can go)

You ruined the weekend PT - maybe $5 or even $4 share price is pie in the sky and my optimistic forecasts have no basis.

Suppose need to value as a no / low growth company on dividend yield and add a premium for a full take over

Hope drclip is wrong when he says the share price won't be going anywhere if they only meet expectations. At least he didn't say collapse.

In this post you're assuming the market is 100% efficient of which we all know it isn't, so maybe you're optimistic forecasts still have some basis....hahaha

[winner69]

In this post you're assuming the market is 100% efficient of which we all know it isn't, so maybe you're optimistic forecasts still have some basis....hahaha

My concern is that the forecasts in my DCF models are so far away from Scales guidance it's not funny (even allowing for under promising over delivery)

Lesson - need to reality check my forecasts

But looking forward to hear what they say about the rest of F16 and hopefully a much better F17

[h2so4]

My concern is that the forecasts in my DCF models are so far away from Scales guidance it's not funny (even allowing for under promising over delivery)

Lesson - need to reality check my forecasts

But looking forward to hear what they say about the rest of F16 and hopefully a much better F17

High dividend high growth should alleviate yours concerns.
$5.50 sounds fair value to me.

[Ace]

High dividend high growth should alleviate yours concerns.
$5.50 sounds fair value to me.

Why stop there? $10 it is

[drcjp]

OK, at $3.47 I reckon SCL is now pretty much fully valued on current numbers (ie. $55M EBITDA). And they will know their 1H numbers by now, so one assumes no upgrade or the like coming.
Thus, next week looking for some CR grunt inspired growth targets and solid evidence of supply chain in hand to meet that demand.

[sb9]

Well 350 now, looking good for results to be out on Thursday...

[Balance]

Well 350 now, looking good for results to be out on Thursday...

The way CVT sp dropped away towards reporting date vs SCL going up heading towards Thursday - market is expecting a good result.

Maybe a special dividend or share buyback to celebrate?