Scales - SCL

[Beagle]

Scales is now my largest holding. I simply don't see much in the way of short term downside.
-With 33% of apples sold, it looks as if prices and volumes are holding up on last year.
-The coolstore business has bounced back (as expected) after a poor 2014
-The currency fall against many of the trading partners (but most importantly the USD) will really drive profitability going forward.

Therefore I expect FY15 PFI forecast to be easily beaten. I estimate they are currently trading on a FY15 pe=10. I also expect brokers are being very conservative with their forecasts. Thus I see broker upgrades by the end of the year. Currently, the average broker target is $2.

They will pay 12c of dividends and 4.7c of imputation credits = 16.7c in the next 6 months. (dividend strippers take note)

Going into FY16, there are many growth initiatives in plan to keep the momentum going. The major initiatives are:
-increased premium apple supply
-$30m Auckland coostore

If they do reach the 12 months broker target of $2, there would be 27c (share price appreciation) + 16.7c (dividend) = 43.7c return on the last close of $1.73. That is a potential 25% upside. But given I think broker estimates are conservative, that may just be a starting point.

Good post mate. Agree 100% Recent drop in the currency provides a nice breezy tailwind and probably more to come with further OCR cuts.

[gv1]

Good post mate. Agree 100% Recent drop in the currency provides a nice breezy tailwind and probably more to come with further OCR cuts.

Ditto mate....only few left in NZX thats looks so promising.

[noodles]

Ditto mate....only few left in NZX thats looks so promising.

I think that in a few months time, we will be talking about Seeka in the same vein. Look out for the half year results in August.

[winner69]

Love that pet food freezing division. Great innovation for a nz company.

You guys have convinced me this thing is a winner, a sure fire winner. You have talked me out of any doubts I had. But wish noodles would come up with his own earnings forecast instead of going about analysts forecasts, I hate analysts forecasts.

Done the old linear regression channel chart and it's looking all honky dory ---- just under1% a week gain since it was 140 in December.

So what's left of the HNZ cash goes into Scales next week

Hope that CEO who you rave about us good as you make out or he be getting plenty o mouth from me

Don't any of you dare say welcome aboard or good luck ---- luck not needed here

[James108]

^ that post makes me nervous

[winner69]

^ that post makes me nervous

Why? --- highly concentrated portfolio --- expectation of each in it is 30% to 40% return within a year --- will be happy if price stays within the up trending price channel.

My response is you should be happy and have greater confidence of success now I gave joined the team and given Scales this endorsement.

[noodles]

You guys have convinced me this thing is a winner, a sure fire winner. You have talked me out of any doubts I had. But wish noodles would come up with his own earnings forecast instead of going about analysts forecasts, I hate analysts forecasts.

The pe quote is based on my estimate.
Last year the horticulture Division sold $158m worth of apples. 97% went overseas. That result was achieved with a USD at 82c. Now consider how much extra revenue they will achieve at a USD rate close to 70c. Volumes and USD pricing being equal, we should see most of that extra revenue going straight to the bottom line.

Is it not as simple as that as there are multiple currencies, forward cover, and shipping rates to consider, but it illustrates the leverage to falling NZD. #tailwind

[gv1]

Ah well... welcome on board winner69. Happy or fruitful journey sir.

[winner69]

Diversity
Scales values individuals’ differences and seeks to ensure that the Board and workforce both comprise members reflecting diversity.

Scales recruits, promotes and compensates on the basis of merit, regardless of gender, ethnicity, religion, age,nationality, sexual orientation, union membership or political opinion. Scales requires that people in the workplace are treated with respect in accordance with the company’s philosophies of equal employment opportunities, and anti- harassment and discrimination policies.

Hmm .....maybe just words, if the Board and Leadership Team anything to go by

[percy]

Love that pet food freezing division. Great innovation for a nz company.

You guys have convinced me this thing is a winner, a sure fire winner. You have talked me out of any doubts I had. But wish noodles would come up with his own earnings forecast instead of going about analysts forecasts, I hate analysts forecasts.

Done the old linear regression channel chart and it's looking all honky dory ---- just under1% a week gain since it was 140 in December.

So what's left of the HNZ cash goes into Scales next week

Hope that CEO who you rave about us good as you make out or he be getting plenty o mouth from me

Don't any of you dare say welcome aboard or good luck ---- luck not needed here

This is not the sort of business you will be happy to invest in W69.Best to sell,move on and save us all from your moral raves,should Scales not meet your "highly concentrated portfolio's 30% to 40% expectations".
1]All white male board.
2]No diversification.
3]Annual report ,and all communications written and spoken in English only.
4]CEO on over $150,000 pa pay.
5]Reliant on cheap imported labour to pick the crop.
6]No over the top financial projections.
7]The company is looking for 15%ROE,far in excess of your acceptable under 10%.
Please stay away,and let others enjoy investing in this company.....,