Quote Originally Posted by Packersoldkidney View Post
I am not bullish either on gold or oil. Investor sentiment on both is extremely high - close to a 100%. When that happens you know a peak is at hand - for who is there left to actually invest if most already have?

Gold in particular looks bearish to me - the classical view of oil is changing because of the supply- demand thing and history is now no guide with oil. I am surer of calling gold down than oil.

Would not surprise if the US $ found a bottom in the near future.
My short-to-medium term hunch is that both oil and gold will come off the boil a BIT with fears of a deep recession being front of mind.

I have no idea where gold/silver/oil will deflate a bit to.....but I suspect it will be a great opportunity to load up for the long-term.

I doubt any oil/gold/silver drop will be severe.......growing energy demands in Chindia, even in a recessionary environment will cushion any selloff, and the increasingly frenetic hunt to find a quality haven for dollars losing their purchasing power will see gold/silver continue to do well in my opinion.

Gold below $900 will be nice, below $850 would be nicer

Silver below $18 would be nice, below $17-ish would be nicer

Oil below $90 would be nice, below $80...back up the tanker truck

Inflation adjusted none of the three have exceeded past highs.

I find it hard to imagine the US digging itself out of the huge hole it's in by any means other than accelerating already far-under-reported inflation figures.

I think of oil/energy/food(and gold/silver to a much, much lesser extent although all interrelated) as the new global currency.

I'm betting on my own personal financial Maslow's heirarchy of needs:

food(ag commodities)
energy(oil/natural gas)
money to buy food and energy

Who can stick their hand up and put their cajones on the line and say with authority how the $500+ TRILLION derivatives debacle will unwind?

I certainly cannot...and while there is considerable risk in investing too much in commodities on the cusp of a potentially very severe recession I'd rather be sitting on a mix of commodities and cash(cash to take advantage in the growing buyers market).

Bear Sterns is just the beginning.....kind of like the iceburg that sank the Titanic....very little of the 'burg is visible.....very little of the derivatives debacle is in mainstream media, and no one really knows what danger lurks below the surface.

Just my 0.02 doom and gloom cents