I don't have any insider info or anything other than an opinion. You're the one close to this share *cough*

Given they operate on razor thin margins but have - to date - been somewhat sheltered by consumer senitment due to their South Island focus, I wonder about the current year seeing as the farming sector seems to have peaked.

Also, the fall in the NZ dollar can't be helping them as an importer.

With a large part of their business being higher value discretionary, they're not the best place to be, somewhat offset by stable management, the tax benefits obtained a couple years ago and not too much of the "rah, rah" in their culture.

My guesstimate is to expect earnings to be down 20-25% this current financial year and have priced that into my valuation range. What earnings increase/decrease is priced into YOUR valuation?

Long term, they'll struggle to compete with the Harvey Norman's of the world on buying power, nor with the single store retailer on service fanaticism. They have a credible business, but no "economic moat". I would not pay for a "Buffett style" long term durable competitive advantage as I do not believe they have one.

In summary, I see a profit making, dividend paying company in a difficult sector that has done well to recover from oblivion, will survive these conditions and on guesstimate is currently slightly under valued to fairly valued.

Not a dog. Not a Buffett buy.

Now, your turn?